Member Info for aprogerson

@yellowstreak Looks like it has been slammed down overnight as volumes are much lower so prior gap up through resistance has been (almost) closed. Will be interesting to see if prior downtrend resistance now acts as support at $27.69 and silver is free to move up again today or price breaks down below resistance at this point?
Interesting day ahead methinks
ATB APR

@CJ I'm not moving my portfolio around again just to chase a silver stock so I setup a modest spread bet instead !
ATB APR

@Ken I admire your bravery with PREM as having been burnt so many times by it I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole; I'm still not convinced by the 'CEO has been serially unlucky and he must be right sometime argument'.

GUN is an interesting proposition but the SP is currently reflecting that Rincon is just not performing as the SP has revisited its IPO price of A$0.27c in the last day or so. Disappointing for me as I now have my ISA with II all-in with Rincon and I am down 20% ... C'est le vie.

Docs issued on ASX last night
Financial statement = https://themarketherald.com.au/asx-rcr/
Activity statement = https://themarketherald.com.au/asx-rcr/

Fieldwork in scheduled for the March 2021 quarter is:
• Laverton – Infill soil sampling and Native Title Heritage Clearance work scheduled for mid-February, Programme of Works (PoW) approved for aircore drilling programme, drilling contractor engaged to commence mid-March on an initial 3,000m drilling programme to test the GG anomaly and follow up historical drill results from three target areas;

• South Telfer – Ultrafine soil sampling to commence in March over selected targets as part of an initial regional geochemical programme in 2021. A drilling PoW has been approved by the WA Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety (DMIRS), Native Title Heritage clearances over areas of proposed ground disturbing works to commence in March, followed by a 5,000m drilling programme to follow up on historical drill results from the Hasties prospect; and

• Kiwirrkurra - Interpretation of electromagnetic and gravity datasets underway to assist with target generation.

§ Cash balance of $6.019 million at 31 December 2020.

I think once Rincon gets traction and announces its maiden drill campaign things will turn around as I would expect its MCap to reach £15m to £20m in short order vs. £7.6m at market close on ASX. When you consider that this includes £3.3m net cash @31-Dec-20 that makes RCR extraordinarily good value. I will continue to add where I can.
AIMHO APR

@james more importantly yesterday it kissed 5p or the 50% Fib retracement in the recent run up from 3.75p to 7.25p and convincingly bounced then recovered further today closing up at 5.45p.
GLA APR

Lovely 3.8p close it is

What is very apparent is that the gold/silver ratio has dropped from 1:82 earlier in the year to 1:68 today as silver has a high Beta compared to gold so the price is moving faster. We also know from Keith Neumayer (CEO First Majestic Silver) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CReWKgKRYC4 that the mining ratio of Gold/silver is nearer 1:11 and although the production side of silver is well understood and documented the consumption side is very much less so as the big industrial users do not want to advertise just how much silver they really need to produce their products.

Any way very interesting listen and forces the question "Is it silvers time yet if nothing else to correct to an inflation adjusted price?"
ATB APR

@Stockable Exactly the point I was trying to make earlier on my post of 09:23 when I compared SP performance of AAZ with HUM ... both shares have lots to like about them but just seem 'unloved' & the SP reflects current production and profitability only. This attributes near zero value to the exploration pipelines which are very strong in both companies as they both transition from single asset producers to multi-asset producers over the next 18-24 months.
AIMHO APR

@Jointhedots I think you have completely misunderstood what we were both saying. Personally I've already bought in after selling out of another position to move it here so unlikely to be doing anything else'- 'buy side' in the near future unless something else in my portfolio takes off and I can top slice !

My observation is Tornado was calling out the recent trading range, I acknowledged it and pointed out a more recent uptrend which supports your argument of more likely up than down, but I pointed out a possibility of low probability near term weakness.

If you interpret that as talking down the share so I can buy in at a better price you are 100% welcome to your view ... I'm just pointing out that it is not the case.
ATB APR

@hintza Absolutely damning if it is true. I guess the next few days price action will tell us all we need to know.
ATB APR

Personally I'll be happy to see 3.7p resistance cleared and confirmed as support ready for further positive newsflow which given Simon Paull's deft handling so far seems very likely. A confident close today above 3.8p should see prior consolidation behind us ready for 4.35p recent high as follow-on target.
GLA APR

Friday looks like the bottom is back in on the retest of 5p to the downside confirming it as support going forward which is good news.

Next resistance 5.7p from prior high and also coincident with uptrend channel resistance high so will be good to get them cleared in one go and set as support going forward!
AIMHO APR

@TornadoTony Funny my chart shows exactly the same ranges you are talking about except for one very small difference ... the very large uptrend bottom from 13-Mar-20 through 27-Nov-20 equating to uptrend support around 125p but a corresponding parallel uptrend high through 5-Aug-20 at 174p equating to a target of around 205p.

Interestingly a 7-month target takes the uptrend support around 178p with a target top around 260p assuming that this uptrend channel is valid and holds. of course 7 months is a long time given what newsflow is reasonable to expect concerning the PSAs, site access and plant/site inspections ... any of which could move the price considerably especially if they bring forward upside production and/or downplay remediation costs & visa versa.

Yes 125/130p if a possibility but if this uptrend is valid then I would expect it to be a very narrow window of 3 weeks at most and would probably take some bad news that materially worsened the situation BEFORE the 3x PSAs were announced to get us there. This is AIM so who knows, but upside SP growth now looks more than than not.
AIMHO APR

@MM It is bizarre as markets are supposed to be forward looking and yet with miners it seems to be based on recent production only with little or no value attributed to exploration and hence future production upside.

I have been in HUM for ages and it is exactly the same thing well run, solid management team, good exploration, single asset producer with mine life issues expanding main open pit LOM and developing other resources to be a multi-asset producer, strong free cashflow and )(almost) debt free and understated no-nonsense PR & RNSs. Parallels are uncanny!

Still doesn't help the SP here or there ... go figure!
ATB APR

Last time POS was at $30 in early Aug-20 HOC touched 326p albeit briefly ... looks like this might have serious legs if it closes above $30 & continues on into tomorrow !
GLA APR

@franco I think we have some nice upside coming our way over the next few weeks as this plays out with more BO geophysics and resource modelling to keep us engaged whilst they rejig their plans for the balance of the BO drilling campaign due for a restart in March.
Lots more to come it seems
ATB APR

Well CEO is doing all the right things and rightly making some noise about it on the RNS !
> Confirmation of contractor to complete BO JORC resource modelling
> Confirmation of contractor to undertake additional detailed Geo-physics survey of BO
> CCZ Geology team to release holistic update of BO results ... not sure what that is exactly but should be interesting !

Seems like a whole lot of very positive vibes coming off CCZ at the moment and Simon Paull is uber positive on the last PodCast too in case you were under a large rock when it came out ... https://mobile.twitter.com/CastilloCopper/status/1354361090071801858
GLA APR

@Chisler I thought you and others might appreciate some background on possible Silver Squeeze ... posted on HOC & AAZ too. Just watch yourselves if you decide to get involved!

Silver Short Squeeze - For those late to the Reddit phenomena and want an up-to-date commentary on WSB really ought to listen to Mike Maloney https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq0L5LOqLAU who has 609k subscribers and takes the current situation apart ... he makes some really good points.

Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850) "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorises it and a moral code that glorifies it!
ATB and really DYOR
APR

@Chisler ... copy of my earlier post on AAZ, but read GWMO. Difference is GWMO is very very early stage whereas AAZ is an existing producer with enormous exploration potential. You can tell however I like silver a LOT as I think what is currently a 'nice' by product can be worth a huge amount particularly when you look closely at our licences historical ore grades with huge silver content aka Silver Moon mine et al. Don't underestimate the silver or the copper for that matter!

My post on AAZ: I can't help but agree the 'right' miners with a good mix of Gold +Silver +copper production and especially strong exploration upside is where most of my portfolio is parked for all the reasons you highlight. I especially like AAZ as it hits all of my buttons, but admit to being caught on last weeks spike as my 20:20 hindsight is currently broken.

AAZ is well placed with its inherent silver exposure particularly if the gold to silver ratio can correct from the current 1:70 back towards the 1:11 mining ratio then this will flatter AAZ bottom line considerably.
ATB APR

Just posted this on HOC:
Silver Short Squeeze - For those late to the Reddit phenomena and want an up-to-date commentary on WallStreetBets (WSB) really ought to listen to Mike Maloney https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq0L5LOqLAU who has 609k subscribers and takes the current situation apart ... he makes some really good points.

Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850) "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorises it and a moral code that glorifies it!
ATB and really DYOR
APR

@SM I can't help but agree the 'right' miners with a good mix of Gold +Silver +copper production and especially strong exploration upside is where most of my portfolio is parked for all the reasons you highlight. I especially like AAZ as it hits all of my buttons, but admit to being caught on last weeks spike as my 20:20 hindsight is currently broken.

AAZ is well placed with its inherent silver exposure particularly if the gold to silver ratio can correct from the current 1:70 back towards the 1:11 mining ratio then this will flatter AAZ bottom line considerably.
ATB APR