RE: Slowing things down12 Apr 2019 10:37
Joe, hope you are well. Ultimately it's identifying where the gas is trapped and the best quality reservoir to extract it. There is little point in exploiting the Paleo here if there are no specific candidate reservoir locations. That said at the DD Brian was effusing about the Paleo - indicating this where the big numbers are for a massive payday for shareholders, surely if the are that excited they'd want to unlock that potential in order to facilitate that outcome? Nevertheless, they have a gas-down-to marker and are hoping that it has migrated up-dip in to the strat play and is trapped there. There seems to be high spot there that would be a likely candidate for a further drill to see if this is the case.
First of all though they need to demonstrate that the gas trapped in the TAGI will flow to surface at commercial rates- something that obviously didn't occur conventionally else I'm sure we'd have been told. Most importantly for the LE is that they can prove up the larger volumes of the strat play - a small amount of flow from the structural closer will not be received well imo, however they spin it and precondition us with low rate viability figures.
The reservoir quality is very poor. The average porosity of 8% was comparable to TE-% structure we were told. I checked the notes I made on the the trip there and had 12-14% average, so some discrepancy. Crucially we have had no permeability figure, but it will be very tight. TE-6 was, again according to my notes, around 0.6Md with some reaching 2Md. However, even taking that into account they have shown that they can successfully stimulate it and the pressure build up data released recently was encouraging for sustainability.
They have been very circumspect about this well and that doesn't help nerves and the SP, but as I stated previously there is so much at stake here, and they are sensible to take every measure possible to get a positive result before presenting it to market. GLA