Member Info for antonvb

Hmmmmm ...... really may need to adjust my exit strategy..... :-)

I was thinking £1 as it's half what it was prior to the December 2019 drop. However, I think I'd rather form an informed exit strategy as opposed to my current one based on a thumb suck. I do think there's a possibility for it to go much higher, but it would depend on Kenya, Suriname, the new well production numbers and the price of oil I guess. It's a difficult one .... nice problem to have I suppose and fortunately don't need the funds at the moment, so will just keep on holding and see what happens.

lol ... I really hope on the day we hit 90p it is at exactly 3pm .... but what happens after that?

There's been lots of wild predictions on the share price (guilty as charged :-) ), however I've been wondering how you determine what the company is really worth. Obviously debt is a factor, but assuming Tullow manages that side of things which they seem to have under control at the moment. Are there any clever people out there who have projections (or know where to find this info) of what Tullow would be worth depending on their oil production. As things stand we're at roughly 60kbpd and 65p. So if this increased to 70kbpd, 80kbpd, 90kbpd, 100kbpd, etc. what should the share price be?

Also, we have new wells in the process of being drilled and this will obviously increase production. Does anyone know how many barrels a day the average well produces?

Thanks

If you're down, then I apologise ... always easier to be more relaxed when it dips if you're up. Hopefully, you don't have too much further to go to break even and can also get something out of this for all your pain and patience. I really think we're headed to £1 and beyond.....

Jeffrey ... you're just a ray of sunshine aren't you ..... do you remember when you said this:

"What happened to massive draw yesterday... Oil yes but gasoline boooo..... Looking forward to when w ehood above 60....could be a while"

I'll remind you .... Thursday last week ....

Could be shorts buying on the up days and GS dumping the returned shares on the down days.... but it went up almost 10% yesterday and we're up from 50p 3 weeks ago, so just a small dip in the scheme of things. Won't go up everyday, but as long as the general trend is up that is all that matters.....

Looking at the L2 console now the buy side is still strong .... I think this may well finish at 65p or even higher.

Get back to us when you are an investor in Tullow.... everyone's advice for you on here is sell i3E and go all in on Tullow.

A 10% Monday hopefully.......

Seeing a lot of moaning and impatience in the posts on this forum..... can't understand it ..... especially from people who've doubled, tripled or quadrupled their investment in a year. Obviously those who've been in Tullow more than a year have a genuine grievance, but for the rest I think you should be grateful for what this share has done for you and for the potential it still has. I certainly am and if it takes another year to get to £1 or above, so be it. If you can get 10% on your investment in a year that's a good return. If you double your money in a year that's champagne and caviar time.

Patience is the key here and has been since March last year...... GLA

They're just try to wear you down LordNaz.......keep the faith

I'm amazed at how impatient people are...... less than 2 weeks ago we were 50p and are now 60p. That's a 20% rise .... think you'll struggle find many other shares that have done as well in that time period. 60p is just another psychological price point that we need to get past and have seen this pattern every time we cross a multiple of 10. Happened when we got to 30p, 40p and 50p and now happening again at 60p. It will bounce around 60p for a while and before you know it, we'll be at 70p and the same thing will be happening, with people moaning that we're stuck at 70p.

Personally, I think the next big jump will be on the half year results (assuming no nasty surprises), as the MM's can manipulate the share price, but can't manipulate how much money Tullow is making at the current oil price.

£1 is a commin' ..... just relax and be patient :-)

Unfortunately not, as I'm one of the idiots I'm afraid .... that is cut and pasted from the 2020 results. I learnt some hard lessons during the credit crunch in 2008 where shares tanked and recovered very quickly, however I didn't have the patience to hold and sold way too soon. So last year when I saw the markets tank I jumped in. It seemed logical to buy oil shares as when something is near worthless, can only go up. Least I thought so anyway, as didn't see the world stopping using oil anytime soon. Thought if we did we'd all have to become subsistence farmers with hand tools, so money wouldn't matter anyway. So liked the look of Tullow as the drop from 200p down in late 2019 seemed way over done to me and looked like panic selling. Also, I like cheap shares as makes me feel warm and fuzzy when I hold lots of shares as opposed to a couple, so Tullow seemed perfect for that :-). Guess I was probably a bit naive to it's financial problems at the time, however I offset my investment with big name shares that had more than halved in value. My thinking being that if Tullow went bust I will probably make 100% on the others over time, so at least won't lose money. Anyway, long story short is with a bit of experience and a lot of luck , I picked the right horse for once.

Consider yourself reminded.....

Derivative financial instruments
Tullow continues to undertake hedging activities as part of its ongoing financial risk management to protect against commodity price volatility and to ensure the availability of cash flow for re-investment in capital programmes that are driving business delivery. Hedging was paused from April to June 2020 due to the very low oil price environment. Hedging restarted in July 2020 but focused only on 2021.
All of the Group’s derivatives are Level 2 (2019: Level 2). There were no transfers between fair value levels during the year.
At 31 December 2020, the Group’s derivative instruments had a net positive fair value of $2 million (2019: net negative $12 million).
2021 hedge position at 31 December 2020 Bopd Bought put (floor) Sold call Bought call
Collars 39,000 $48.12 $66.47 –
Three-way collars (call spread) 1,000 $50.00 $72.80 $82.80
Total/weighted average 40,000 $48.17 $66.63 $82.80

Don't worry Bailiff ..... these branches are strong enough for all of us and I can see plenty of fruit that's going to be starting to ripen soon.

I've strapped myself into the tree, so they can shake as much as they like ...... not getting out the tree without lots of fruit :-)

Whatever......

Says the person who was complaining yesterday when I made a post about shorts .... :-)

I don't specify my holding and I guess doing so could be considered bad etiquette, however I do like it when people do. I think it gives insight into how people are investing in the share. Also, for example, I take a lot more notice of what Stephen Beetham posts as he has a few million invested, opposed to Happy who has a fiver short.