Got to sell on a blue day and buy on a red day .... not the other way round. I very nearly sold yesterday just before close, as this was a bit predictable. However, equally it could of gone up today and I'd have looked a bit stupid again, so didn't want to risk it. If we do get to 60p plus in the next few months, then dipping in and out for small gains is risky and easier said than done. On the flip side, if we're still 30p by the end of next year then you'd be kicking yourself for not trading.
What do you do? What do you do?
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6592d8ba-83ec-11ee-ab78-b8f8e234f1ae?shareToken=68bae705f4158e4d857c1945ae51c18b
Nice to see positive press .... and there's a lot of it out there since the update.
You're like a stuck record ......
Share price up 10% on "Full year net oil production is expected to be marginally below guidance of 58-60 kbopd" and Jubilee production up 50% from the low in May ...... nope, he ain't done nuttin'.
like i always say ...sentiment is everything and i think it is finally turning. getting very hard to be negative about tullow now and people are running out of reasons to **** it off.
whatever happens tomorrow, i'm definitely enjoying today. may even go to costco and invest in a bottle of bubbly for tonight.
Might not be far off 40p by close if this keeps up ...... be interesting to see if it drops back tomorrow? If it is the shorts closing, what are the institutions going to do with the returned shares. When they start holding them and not dumping them it will get really interesting.
i don't know.... recently every time prior to the announcement of a small reduction in one of the big shorts we've had a 5% rise just before it was reported. it happened twice, if the 5% rise and the short reduction are in fact tied is unknown. however, i think what we know now is that it is no longer worth being short and is now very risky, as to quote rahul .... "debt is no longer an issue". so the only think you could hope for being short is sub $50 oil, however we have hedges and given the **** show that the world is at the moment, probably unlikely. so what will happen when both of the big shorts start buying back, pi's start coming back in and dare i say it .... institutions start increasing positions. been quite some time since anyone holding above the reporting threshold has reported a buy or sell.
i wouldn't be surprised if we're knocking on or above 40p by friday ..... not impossible now.
"Don't think he would just pay another 5% till 2025 for the hell of it. I wouldn't be surprised if we get another RNS soon or something with the update on Wednesday."
I was right for once....damn it's taken me over 1000 posts to get one right.....lol
Quick Google search seems to suggest that it would be 5% for the facility and 10% on top of that for drawn amounts. Certainly so if it was from a bank. Glencor did get a sweetner with the oil marketing, so be interesting to know if it is only on drawn amounts. Rahul must be up to something if it is 5% on the facility. Don't think he would just pay another 5% till 2025 for the hell of it. I wouldn't be surprised if we get another RNS soon or something with the update on Wednesday.......hmmmmmm
Hmmmmm...Good question. The way the RNS is worded it could be read SOFR on the facility and an extra 10% on drawn amounts or SOFR plus 10% on drawn amounts. I assumed interest was only on drawn amounts as there is no comma before the plus in the last sentence below. However now am unsure.
"The facility will be available to draw for 18 months and proceeds will be used for liability management of Tullow's senior notes maturing in March 2025. The interest on the facility will be Term Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 10% on drawn amounts."
POWER .... So if you have no faith then sell. If you can't sell as you're so far underwater you can't see daylight then I'd advise you not to post negativity, especially on days when we get one of the best RNS's for quite some time. Sentiment is everything and your negativity doesn't help your cause in the slightest.
Andoman .... it is not the type of loan that you're assuming. It is a credit facility ... bit like a credit card I guess. Has a penalty interest rate and you only use it when you have no other choice. My assumption is Rahul has put it in place so that the company won't default on the 2025 notes even if the oil price tanks and that puts them in a stronger negotiating position. If all goes according to plan it won't be used. I'm pretty sure they already have a £600m credit facility that they've had for years and not used as yet too.
POWER isn't a glass half full kinda guy/girl/they/it ..... they're more my glass is empty and exploded in my face kinda guy/girl/they/it.
Reality is they're probably just short ..... no way you can be so negative and still keep holding a share. You'd have to be just plain stupid to do so.
Scrodingerscat .... "Also 10% I'm sorry but considering our current credit rating and current base rates, 10% is as good as we can get"
The RNS states "The interest on the facility will be Term Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 10% on drawn amounts."
I believe this puts the interest rate at just over 15% (probably why we're only up circa 10%), as unless I'm mistaken the overnight rate is currently just over 5%. I think this is just finance that will only be used if absolutely necessary, as interest is only paid on what is drawn as seakingalpha has alluded too. Bit like bridging finance when you build a property and I guess will be like an insurance policy to ensure bonds can be paid in 2025 should oil drop significantly before then and free cash flow is reduced. As Rahul stated ..... "Debt is no longer an issue" and at least now he can negotiate financing, Kenya, deals, etc. without a knife held against his throat.