The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I'll take my long term estimate of 56p.
Do I think that might happen?
Well, I think it might still happen, as much as it looks remote at the moment.
Sorry, but somebody has to keep it real.
Sometimes I feel like I'd take 20p, just to finish it.
Agreed, Bridgedogg1.
But you're obviously new to HUM.
Expect the absolute worst and you won't be disappointed.
I'd like to think you're 100% correct though. With cream added on top.
Fingers crossed they haven't managed to mess up again.
I've certainly lit a fuse here, that's created some great debate.
So my "out there" thoughts are no as far off as I thought.
I think much revolves around the POG.
Surely if it rises to $2500 or more, it's not so outlandish?
Figures have been thrown out there and I agree, they're at least in the realms of reality.
And yes, Dan is a dreamer. He's still young enough to think like this.
Of course, keeping my balanced head on, we might well end up needing to borrow more money in the short term. Who saw the last money deal that has cost us a fortune coming, after all?
While HUM has the seemingly superb ability to ruin our prospects, so it could easily be the 100% opposite.
And most likely, a lot more.
And that's the game I'm invested in.
Heavily, by my levels.
Heh, it was just a thought, based on a much higher gold price, with our debt paid off and a stupid FCF.
That link quotes $435 million initial outlay. Would that really be impossible with say, $200 mill of our money and the rest on tick? Whatever, I did say it was "out there" and it would be years down the line anyway. :-)
We need to pay back what we owe first!
Bismarck, I first bought in at 30p+.
Fortunately, by reluctantly averaging down along the way actually led to me making a fair profit. Catching a falling knife actually worked for once and taught me a big lesson.
I'm now much more willing to hold an investment instead of just writing it off and selling.
Dugbe is interesting. Bonker gives a valuation and he's right to mention it, because it's not being added to our Mcap at the moment and has been pretty much ignored.
"The project is expected to produce 2.27 million ounces (Moz) of gold over its lifetime while the average annual production in the first five years of operation is estimated to be 200,000oz"
https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/dugbe/?cf-view
I know the thoughts have always been that we'll sell it off, but it really wouldn't surprise me if that doesn't happen.
The company quite rightly makes a bit deal out of it being multi jurisdiction and I think they'd like to improve this.
Now it's a bit of an "out there" idea with finances as they are at the moment, but if everything were to go well over the next couple of years, it wouldn't surprise me if they were to buy Pasafino out and build it themselves.
Does anybody think that's a totally stupid idea and I'm talking out of my ar*e?
Genuine question, because I know I might be missing something.
Bridgedogg1, it was seriosly missed production and AISC at $2100+ at one stage. I think we were in effect losing around $400 an oz at one stage.
You may be able to glean the info if you read the RNS's from say, February last year. The SP went from 14p to 5p and it was a really bleak time.
Like I say, I think we're passed that.
Trochilidae, you're right. It was FY22 that got revised down. How time flies.
Yep, it's;
" FY2023 production guidance for Yanfolila, Mali of 80,000 - 90,000 oz, with full year AISC of under US$1,500 per oz"
I stand corrected, cheers :-)
There's currently no reason to believe there is, because regardless of what's happening re the SP, they're still managing to pull the money in and the figures are good.
Dividendmax indicates that cover is 1.7, which, while not as good as the magical "2", isn't desperate.
Of course, things can change.
"once Kouroussa is at full production "
That's the key.
Yan is only(!) on track to do 80-90k ozs this year, when it was supposed to be 90-100k.
This is THE main reason why the SP is so low. The market doesn't trust what Betts tells it, purely because of what's hapened in the last few years, where the company has underperformed.
He simply has to get it right now. Fortunately, I think lessons have been learned, they've sacked the old mining contractors and replaced them with a high reputation contractor and I believe will start to get it right.
Looks like our American friends hav e come to help us out a bit.
The beauty of this is I'm in the money now.
And it's still ridiculously cheap. Confirmation of a good pour in the next couple of weeks and it'll go ballistic.
Some more of those podcasts wouldn't go amiss either.
Good newsflow is exactly what we need. That, combined with a rising gold price, albeit I suspect it might be short-lived is ideal.