Member Info for andysand

So, my prediction for today as another large buy that matches the block sells. Someone is wanting to buy without moving the price. We will know after 4.30pm. If I am right, then we can expect some fireworks in the near future.

And by the way, that would indicate they have a buyer who is mopping them up as they come. I am a lot more hopeful in the past hour than I have been for a week. At the moment, I would be happy just for the price to stabilise for a few days or weeks.

Well, here is some good news. These block sells of 350000 shares are not moving the price. They must be pre agreed with the mm's. I think this is probably the bottom now so a few buys should send it back past 2p without too much trouble:)

If it were clear cut John, it would be easy. Like picking money off trees. But it isn't. There are some very serious issues. But the point is this; those issues are what has savaged the share price. Therefore, if they get resolved, you will have your 10 bagger. But we won't really know except in hindsight. It would be much less risky to buy in later when things are clearer. But by then, the shares will already be at 12p! But at least you would be safer. If you want the 10 bagger, you better get used to the negatives. It is 'cheap' for a reason. Not because nobody has noticed it.

I told everybody I was long some time ago. But it is not a large holding as the risks are currently too high.

I have been looking harder at China and the problems they have of liquidity. I am absolutely convinced that TW is wrong on one issue. Auhua is not a fraud. But, there are severe problems nonetheless. I think it was Warren Buffet who said "buy when there is blood on the floor". Well, there is blood on the floor in China! Auhua's problem of receivable will only be resolved when the PBC manage to get bank lending going again. In a way, they are in a situation not unlike we were in 2007. The credit markets are very poor and this is particularly affecting the building industry, and therefore, all the companies that are connected to it including of course Auhua. So the issue is whether Auhua can survive the storm. Our markets turned around when the governments started QE. I have a feeling that China will need to do something similar in the near future. At that point, sentiment will change and Chinese shares will start to be re-rated. Who knows how long this will take though? I don't think it will be too long. All the signs are there of a nasty slow down in China and the POB is already lowering interest rates pretty fast. I think they will need to go a lot faster soon. Then we will be off to the races. But if they don't act quickly, a lot of companies will go to the wall; including the building companies that Auhua sell to.

Volume has dried up now. At least the selling is over; no sellers left I suspect. The only other seller to worry about is David Sumner. I suspect that those 300,000 daily sells are his. Even that should be coming to an end shortly. That should mean we are likely to see a bounce shortly. I have emailed the company (again). This time I emailed Raphael. As yet, there is no reply.

Well, let us all know which email address you used and then perhaps some others can replicate your success. You can post it here without fear as it is a public email address.

A balanced discussion helps everybody. A one day ramp causing spikes and retracements helps nobody. I am long for your information. But only a small amount. It's fine to look at the bull points, I think I am doing that. But we also can't brush the negatives under the table. We all know that the company seems stupidly cheap. But we all know there is extreme risk here too. you don't like negatives being posted because you are long. But this really is a discussion board, not a ramping board. That's why it has a 'sell' option in the opinion list.

This is an important one. The shares are priced for bankruptcy. This is not a 'valuation'. No company would ever trade on a PE of 0.7. It is obviously silly. They are really priced more like options. If the earnings are correct (this is the massive IF that we are all concerned about) then the share price will perform more like an option. Leaping from 1.8p to anywhere up to 40p. If not, the 'option' will expire worthless. It is one of the most interesting shares I have come across in years. Anyone have any contacts in China? We could do with some photos of the factory:)

Hmm. I consider myself more of an ACE agnostic than a true believe at the moment. I don't think they have been proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt:) The evidence is all circumstantial. But there are definitely some interesting bull points to match the bear. I do like the fact that the CEO has not been involved in dozens of companies. In fact, it seem to be just this one that he built from scratch. And I do like the fact that they currently have spare cash from the placing. But if those receivables aren't dealt with, we are all doomed. Let's hope they are doing just that.

I would like that very much. They should absolutely do this regardless of whether it's the norm or not. There is nothing normal about this kind of share price collapse.

Well. I am back and I am now holding 48516 shares. So now I get to comment and explain my reasons! They are purely mathematical. Imagine a £10'000 pounds portfolio. With £1000 invested in Auhua. If I am wrong, and the company is not a fraud, it will 10 bag and double the value of the whole portfolio. But if it goes bust, then the maximum loss is 10% of the entire portfolio. So from a risk/reward perspective, it might be worth having a SMALL holding. But that doesn't mean that I am not highly suspicious of this company. It just means that the maths may make sense providing you are happy to accept a possible total loss.

I am happy to remain silent and just watch. But I do have an interest as a potential investor in the future. I will be back if it a) goes bust or b) flies on the back of good news (not ramping, an RNS).

I can't get stung. I have no position. I would like to be long though. But I can't without the company being more transparent on cash flow. I have always said that this could easily 10 bag in an instant. I still believe that is at least a possibility. But only if the company get an audit done, and only if they pass it with flying colours. Given these rewards in share price, it's hard to understand why they wont address it.

I imagine that a lot of holders were spooked by Globo today. A very interesting AIM story to say the least. It just proves what is possible with accounting fraud. We don't yet know whether Auhua is a fraud though. There was a good article today on shareprophets (not TW) that says what I have been saying. Basically, the shar price is trashed and it really can't get much worse so why not come clean about the receivables? http://www.shareprophets.com/views/16018/auhua-receivables-at-177-of-turnover-in-h1-2015-erred-flag-for-breakfast It's a pretty balanced article without all the emotional bluster of TW. It's hard to argue with its conclusion which is: Explain the receivables! Exactly what I have been saying since the last interims.

Of course I do. We don't know why receivables are more than 100% of turnover. It's either fraud, or bad management. Thing is, everything can be faked except cash! Show me the cash Auhua. That's all I ask:)

multi:"thing is you nor I have the remotest idea of the breakdown of the receivables - for all we both know most if not all are already settled o" You are dead right. We are blind.

You could be right multibag. On the other hand... How long would you as a supplier keep supplying without payment? Would you keep going after a year? Bearing in mind too that you are supplying products and not just a service. This is such a tricky call. Either the accounts are suspect (disaster in the end), or the company is very badly run. If the former, then it's game over at some point. But if it's the latter, then there is at least a chance of rescuing the situation. Even it it means taking a hefty write down on receivables. But if that write down were to be say 40%, then profits would be reduced to about zero. How do we value the company then? That's why we need an audit. There may be undue optimism about getting paid that prevents them writing down some of the receivables. How long do you not get paid before you admit that the money is not coming? And all that assumes there is no fraud, just poor management. This receivables problem is their number one issue and they should be focusing on resolving this as the most urgent problem, even before selling products. Anyone can sell products for nothing and go bust. Banks DO offer factoring in China. Why don't they look at this option? Could it be because the banks would look at the customers and throw a fit? We MUST have answers. It is not enough to point to unaudited interims and say it is all there because it isn't. They need to address the elephant in the room and quickly; ssuming they want to stay listed of course. But surely this is all so damn obvious? I think it is because that the obvious is staring them in the face, and yet they still don't address it, that they are thought to be less than honest. What could they be hiding? The Chinese are notorious for doing business with close friends/family; even it it makes for a poor business decision. This is cultural. It is considered corrupt to ignore the ties of close associates. This is exactly the opposite view that we have in the west. They don't see themselves as corrupt, they see US as corrupt by ignoring important bonds and putting business ahead of 'family'. It is an interesting cultural difference don't you think?

Yes, three emails. No reply.