Member Info for Andyagogo

Not sure we have reached the end of the downgrade cycle yet,
however share prices generally make a low while newsflow continues
to weaken. It's a trend often seen at the depths of a wider equity bear market.
That being said, we remain in a wider bull market, at least for now.

I'm guesstimating a substantial amount of bad news is already in the price,
unless prospects for 2019 markedly weaken further.

All very much IMV only, as always best to DYOR.

Over 3% lower on the NAS.

* in either direction.

In danger of finishing blue at this rate.

Might anticipate today's low being retested at some point.

FLEXIT,. Would think most PI holders are aware of sector cyclicity and
subsequent outsized SP movements, in with direction.

The long term SP charts are available for everyone to look at,
if they so wish.

Unfortunately I'm old enough to get that televisioual reference )

May be some valid observations there FTSE, as with a 7% fall in fares,
something is not working. It raises questions re strategy.

I thought it notable directors were not adding, as mentioned earlier this week.

Right, so we are continually told how competitive RYA are on fares...

So why, even allowing for overcapacity, would their fares fall by another 7%????

If there is already such clear water between RYA and the competition on pricing ....

Something does not add up to me... Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks.

The % fall in fares that is eye catching.

That may indicate significant sector overcapacity.

As Remain is now 11 points ahead of leaving in the latest polling,
yes it increasingly appears people have had enough.

The easiest trade deal in history, eh.

That line won't be forgotten.

And there were have it.

And the kicker ... May have to lower guidance again.

A chasm of difference re the RYA.SP.

If we are going over the cliff, this may get very ugly indeed.

Not that I think it would last very long.
The incredible daily disruption would force the UK back to talks within days.

In a way. It might be helpful, as the big lies sold by Leave would finally be revealed,
out in the open for all to see.

...a deal with the same benefits..my ar*e.

And the latest lie...oh, we were not offered that as a Remainer was in charge of talks...

Utter and complete cr*p.

You don't get the same membership benefits as a non member, full stop.

Under 10 - at the time of this post.

Just me thinking out loud, not intended as a definitive statement,
which is why I included the word ..may.

Scale of defeat is helpful.

It brings the prospect of no Brexit, or a softer version of May's deal nearer.

£ already sharply off pre vote lows as a result.

No director buying I notice ...

There was a very cautious commentary on RYA this week from a broker.
I've unfortunately lost the link to the FT write up, but in a nutshell-
RYA faces significant cost pressure increases at a time of sector overpacity and potential 2019
falling seat prices.

Comments such as that are usually relatively bullish ). Let's see.

There is a large price to be paid for leaving the EU,
which will make our UK contributions look small.

That type of news will not just be confined to the likes of BT,
it will be spread over multiple other industries.

I was in favour of Leave at one point,
it's increasingly looking like a hideous mistake.

I wonder did a large institution unload a large line of stock on the back of that?.

While PI's bought.

Great yield and dividend record.

No performance fee and reasonable charges.

Gearing also looks nice and low.

You can make a contra sentiment buy call.

Firstly, we look late in this cycle, defensives may begin to outperform.

A new CEO may clarify strategy, sports rights acquisition strategy etc..
Would expect this to be a main priority.

My own recent experience just out of interest - as I'm with EE as is my better half,
We have stayed with BT on broadband because of the discount on mobile.

Dividend downside? - it may be best not to view the dividend payout as set in stone,
It's clearly not, a new CEO may want to start his tenure with a rebasing,
allowing leeway for subsequent annual increases.

The risk of a Labour government - this may be overblown re BT.
Labour have made no pronouncements on potential re-nationalisation,
at least none that I'm aware. Relations between the Labour Party and BT appear positive,
if anything. BT had a very conspicuous presence at the last two Labour Party conferences.
The Tory party have done BT absolutely no favours, and most of us can guess the reason why,
it begins with the letter M.

In terms of dividend cover, the confusion appears to stem from .. normalised cash flow.

If you discount the extra pension top up payments to 2020,
under the pan agreed in May 2018, the dividend is covered by free cash flow.

But that's like me saying, if I subtract 10 years from my age I'm really 40, not 50.