Member Info for Andyagogo

Where did I mention the solvency of the company?.

I posted on the dividend being uncovered.

It's a factual, not a subjective statement.

That net debt is increasing is also factual.

Just to be clear - I made no comment on the financial viability of BT.A,
I've just noted their net debt is increasing.

You asked me to clarify how the dividend is currently uncovered,
which I did.

I did not even include the £2 billion in bond issuance in this.

What are you now saying ...?

Very simple to check this - the free cash outflow at the H1 was £982 million.

Look at the £2.1 Billion in extra pension payments agreed in May 2018,
staggered over 3 years.

That's in addition to a £2 billion bond issuance for the BT pension schemes.

Did you think net debt was just majically increasing for some reason...?

That statement is incorrect.

With the extra pension payments the dividend is currently uncovered.

Note the increase in net debt as a consequence.

How could that post be construed as gloating?,
it's a salient reminder of economic cycles. Nothing more.

You can make a contra sentiment buy case for BT.A here,
however the level of current dividend payout I would be less
sure on.

Are you not repeating the mistake many investors made in 2006, 2007??

Then the high yielding banks were recommended as income plays -
the result, a massive destruction of capital as the financial crisis took hold.

Repeat after me - recessions have not been abolished.

We don't have enough nurses in the UK to fill vaccancies.
Many healthcare from countries like Poland are returning home.

People's lives are being put at risk with extra wait times in A&E,
as just one example.

Brexit will teach the UK a huge lesson, for some it will be paid
with the ultimate price.

Don't take my word for it, ask someone you know who works in A&E
what impact Brexit is having.

Through the next cycle?. That's a question worth considering.

As per usual some here are focussed on the next buy back, while missing
the big picture - we look late cycle and new challenger banks are emergung.

I'm sure Brexit has nothing to do with it.

Friendless.

What will happen to the SP when the next recession arrives??.

Airline sector.

In a nutshell - capacity is currently outstripping market growth.

This week?.

I did not see the 40's outside of a bear market, we may be
in the early stages of one, even so thought the UKX would need be
closer to 6200/6300 to achieve at Lloyds price beginning with 4.

Grim.

Not noticed any announcements on their front for sometime?

Anyone have a view on this, thanks.

Michael holds in quantity, as we know.

In terms of the last 6 months, it may be fair to say
the BOD have been in no rush to buy additional shares -
In terms of total shares purchased.

As mentioned earlier, it's worth looking at the RYA long term SP chart.

* post WW11

Airlines are highly cyclical. They often sell off aggressively on expectations
of lower growth. Even if you completely discount Brexit concerns
the market is starting to factor in the next cycle - or the end of the
current one. Whether that assumption is correct or not,
we find out in 2019.

The RYA long term very clearly underlines this.

Post WW111, the US experiences a recession approximately once every 8 years,
while the past does not necessarily represent the future, that stat. Is worth
remembering. Economic cycles have not been abolished.

Anyone think this is beginning to rhyme with that year?.
So a very compressed equity fall... But no recession in
the wider economy.

@ 10.23

This may look expensive if there is bad news.

Some bad news on the way ?.

That may, emphasis on may, be what the market is indicating.

Don't jump off a cliff!.

I thought I'd had it on Wednesday morning in the recovery room
following my endoscopy. Had a reaction to the sedation used,
heart rate went to 140. When a Dr rushed over quickly drawing the curtains
around the bed, while nurses are attaching you to a monitor..
not the most pleasant of experiences!. Very luckily it began to reduce.
I'm on the DASH diet now as part of blood pressure control measures,
what a joy! ).

A bear market.

Look at the reaction to the Carnival FY yesterday, solid enough report,
SP falls sharply on 2019 guidance just fractionally below expectations.

The reverse happens towards the trough on bear markets, with bad news no
longer causing price falls.

The equity party looks over for now, however we will get some sharp counter trend
moves.

Need to remain open-minded, however that's how it's looking to me.