Member Info for Andyagogo

Said to be looking at the European market.

TransAtlantic surely?.

That's some penthouse!.

There is a lot of comment on the issue of excess airline seat capacity in Europe.

I just wonder who is mainly responsible for this?, Is it the rapid growth of Wizz Air
over recent year?.

Any views appreciated.

Has been strong recent support.

I'm not suggesting it's going back there, before anyone shouts.
Unless we hard B - can't bring myself to say the word at this stage.

Now trading at 5 month high,
higher for longer is what the sector requires to take out excess capacity.

Https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ryanair-cancels-flights-belfast-edinburgh-stansted-boeing-737-max-a8859451.html

Thanks for that information, appreciated.
It could be s hedge against a larger long position elsewhere of course.

Another guidance cut perhaps?, But happy to be wrong on that.

Are helping in stripping out sector capacity, it's short term pain for a longer term gain.

Arguably if the 2018 oil price highest had held for 5/6 months we would
now be facing a more supportive sector supply metrics.

Capacity growth and supply is out of kilter with demand and demand growth currently.

Of course there will Always be demand, that's really not the point.

It's how much supply there is.

Given the huge operational gearing the sector carries. Is one of the reasons
it's so cyclical.

I've seen comments on other sites where posters reference the low IAG multiple
as an indicator of value, to me it signifies something very different -
that sector earnings may have passed peak in the current cycle.

To paraphrase Charlie Munger - one of the most efficient ways to destroy 50% of your
capital is to buy a cyclical stock on a low earnings multiple.

Low multiples for cyclicals often equate to peak earnings.

That being said, there will remain counter trend moves that may be tradable.

AL, interesting post.

What's your downside target on that basis? Thanks.

To paraphrase ...I do not share the optimism of others in the sector on 2019 pricing.

Following this morning's Jet news perhaps worth noting.

Until late last week I was pretty convinced that a no deal BREXIT
was very unlikely. No longer.

Hi guys, hopefully every one is keeping well.

Is it time to consider what price RYA may be trading at if the UK leave without a deal..

What a relentlessly depressing week.

Longer term you can make a buy case.

You may be underestimating the cyclicality of the sector in the medium term.

Equity holdings.

They look far from defensive by and large.

Woeful 12 month performance imv.

It is of use, as it's a reminder to buy and hold quality companies.

Who is our most successful fund manager currently?, Arguably it's Terry Smith.

Does he hold even one share on that list?, Not one.

I hope that is intended as dark irony, as Nothing is worth taking a life for.
Your health, friends, family are what matters in life.

Well as I've mentioned about 100 times, no deal died at precisely 10.00 PM
on GE night.
The nanosecond after publication of the Exit poll it was game over.
The Tory overall majority removed by the electorate.

It's taken some a very long time for this to sink in,
however perhaps following today the penny is beginning to drop.

So just once again for those remaining fantasists - there is no parliamentary majority for a no deal exit,
there is a parliamentary majority for leaving with some sort of deal.

Huffing and puffing will not change that one little bit.

We are heading for the softest of Brexits. Like it or lump it, that's what you are going to get.

Lloyds is worse. The wealth destruction that has caused over the past 20
years has been quite exceptional.

Yet still you have PI's saying ...I'm buying for the next 20 years!.
And I can't help thinking ...have you looked at the last 20!.

I don't accept that at all.

VOD gives very little EM exposure.
It's essentially a play on European markets, Germany in particular.
Rather than being diverse, it's extraordinarly concentrated.

A dividend yield that comes with capital erosion is less than useless.

It's like saying, here's £100, but I'm taking back £120.

May be that will change. Otherwise investment capital is being whittled away.