Member Info for Andyagogo

Given the myriad of posts on here over the last couple of yesrs, such as..
I'm buying for the long term..I'm buying for my retirement etc,
it concerns me whether some investors are aware how the Lloyds SP
has performed over the last 25 plus years..

Now past history may now be a reliable guide to the future etc,
that being said...a look at the long term Lloyds SP chart may be an idea.

I mentioned last June that I found the complacency of many posts quite stunning,
in the context of how Lloyds has performed over the last two decades.

And now we have sector disruption with the rise of digital only banks.
Add that to the mix going forward.

It paints a vulgar picture imv, but a very lucrative one,
come what may, for the BOD. All those annual bonus shares to
mature yet, one word - dilution.

I'm not taking any guidance from completely discredited Brexiteers with
their ...easiest trade deal in history ...oh the German auto makers will help the UK ..
etc etc. Utter and complete Bo****ks it's turned out to be.

And re the EU, Italian banks, German banks etc, the ECB will do whatever it takes
to keep the show on the road, just as the FED did, with the ECB belatedly joining in the
QE party. Come the next downturn there will be measures we've probably never even
heard of used, just as QE entered the common lexicon over the last few years.

In terms of the UK, a government presiding over a no deal would last
a week or two at most. The political situation would be untenable.

This is a country where people panic buy in shops if there going to be
one day of snow. The electorate are fickle and dislike inconvenience.
It's not the blitz now, those days are not returning.
We've seen the utter choas one stray drone is causing, they've
called in the Army!.

If we really are facing a scenario where flights are grounded for weeks
on a no deal Brexit, the government would fall within a week or two,
particularly as this would be just one of many issues.

I've referenced the last 3 bear markets re Lloyds a number of times
this year.

From many of the comments here it appears some may not
have looked at the long term chart.

Wids, it's by no means all Brexit, though it's a notable factor atm.

Recessions have not been abolished, neither have equity bear markets.
History provides at least some guide to how Lloyds may perform in both.

There are now growing secular challenges from the rise of digital only banks.

You can take a contra sentiment view on buying at these levels, yes.

However if we are looking at another recession,
then it would need to be a rather strange recession if Lloyds did
not take some type of hit.

Many PI's tend to overlook, or perhaps underestimate the Lloyds commercial book.
Lloyds has very significant exposure to UK small and medium sized companies
through commercial lending.

It is a tad ironic that some of the more passionate Brexit supporters hold Lloyds.

In the the 40's can no longer be ruled out.

If I had to take a guess, risks of a UK recession are markedly increasing now.

Regardless of Brexit, we look late cycle.

@ 10.33

As before very small amounts.

Shell still not falling markedly, their buy back plus dividend buyers supportive atm, frustrating.

Just had a quick look at the Jet, they say along the lines of 65% hedged out to September 19,
they also include FX in that hedge %, so the fuel element may be lower, or higher.
I would anticipate/guess it's well below the 90% mark of RYA.

Should just say that's my rudimentary reading of the last EZJ statement, may be incorrect.

Just wondering with the oil price now markedly below their hedge,
is this going to become increasingly costly over the next few months?.

Other carriers may be able to position more aggressively on price
with lower oil, aware RYA are the sector cost leaders, it may impact
on margins... I'm assuming few other companies are 90% hedged out to October 2019.

Are we witnessing another commodity bust unfolding here?.

Will put in a cheeky limit order for RDSB tomorrow.

I'm trying to remember this large a % fall in such a compressed timeframe for oil..

Well as mentioned a few weeks ago I see lower levels.

Are we seeing a second commodity bust unfolding ..?

Holidays after March 29 because of Brexit fears.

That partly behind yesterday's sharp sell off would guess.

The longer this drags on the more consumer confidence is dented.

Meeting, the indicative votes idea has been squashed.

It had been suggested by Liam Fox, and it's perhaps his most sensible
suggestion in years. However May seems determined to press on with her deal,
which is a dodo, unless Labour can breath some life in to it, or a version of it-
by offering their support. Not good news for the airline's imv,
all be it Lower oil is helping.

The RDSB price supported by weaker GBP. Dividend consideration.

Mentioned in October that I was convinced oil was about to peak
and had sold my RDSB and BRCI in anticipation of this.

The peak in oil was about 8% higher than I expected
and the decline has certainly been more rapid than anticipated.

Unfortunately RDSB has not reflected the drop in oil anywhere near enough for
me to buy back in. The longer term correlation is Shell will mirror (very approx)
half the % move in the oil price.

Worth remembering.

Given the carnage that was the Lloyds SP during the last 3 bear markets,
It's a hideous thought to contemplate how low can this go...?.

This is before you factor in the rise of digital only banks as new
emerging competition for Lloyds.

@10.45

Be careful out there

A teenagers boxers in a brothel.

When I mentioned 52 pence as my target for Lloyds last June,
(given increasing Brexit uncertainty) many thought that view risible.
I may have been too optimistic, if anything.

RYA caught in the Brexit crosswinds now.

Given how RYA can shift in % terms,
the hard Brexit price guesstimatesI mentioned last week for RYA,
may like Lloyds, prove too optimistic.

UK retailers being killed, ASOS the latest to warn.
The malaise has spread far beyond traditional high street retailers.

The wider economic cycle about to roll over?.