Member Info for Andy144

"what is the $ currency risk for shareholders? all costs are in dollars and i thought all gas n oil revenues were as well? a weak dollar means the dividend devalues a bit. but what else?"

nothing else really. except for massive us debt with interest payments alone of nearly $1tn a year. if the us hikes up the spending then watch the bond markets as this will show where inflation is heading. if us starts to see inflation rising then the dollar will weaken.

luckily in the uk we are in even greater ****e so it hopefully wont matter as it is more than likely the £ will weaken even more, making the divi better. us currency is, of course, the worst currency to be in: apart from all the other ones.

JC01 "A weak dollar increases your sterling dividend. You get more sterling for your buck. The dividend is paid in dollars then converted. Currently 0.29c per qtr"

Perhaps I wasn't clear but a weak dollar (from a UK point of view) is when you get more dollars for your sterling. i.e the exchange rate goes from, say 1.26 to 1.5.

If this happens then you get less dividend not more, and this is what I was alluding to.

You could similarly say you want a weak pound (or strong dollar) - just as in the Truss era. We had nearly a 1:1 then and the dividend was higher in sterling terms.

I would say it is 80% down to Trump winning. Dems enquiry now dead. Trump's pro fossil fuel stance etc. This has caused some shorts to reduce. DEC did well over the previous Trump years.

Need to keep a close eye on US inflation and dollar weakness. Trade tariffs, as mooted by Trump, could easily start inflation off again and cause issues. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs introduced by Hoover in 1930 were one of the triggers for the great depression.

"DEC was much higher when gas prices were in the $1's. The decline has nothing to do with gas price."

Perhaps true but not entirely comparable. Dilution, acquisitions etc.

"Asp - afraid you can’t win an argument with an irrational person using logic and facts."

I can guess who is might be (he's filtered). Worth remembering that he lost c50% of his investment so he has every right to be pi55ed off. Unusually agressive towards anyone who holds (he himself did not heed his own advice to get out so why should anyone else).

The really smart hater who believed DEC is a zero would, of course, do exactly the opposite and be pumping this stock madly and then laugh when it goes bust.

GLA

DEC has hit interday c825p 3 times since the consolidation. Twice before it has bounced off quite quickly. This time it seems to be sticking a bit. A rally past 850p and I might trade it, but if it falls under 825p then this would not be a good sign.

DYOR. GLA

Good post. Pickedpeck = Oakbloke?

Rrb: Food for thought. Good number crunching.

I'm outta here. Too much hatred.

GLA

Notrex. Perhaps I have not been following the conversations; lots of hot air and bickering getting in the way maybe, but who or what is potentially forcing them into admin? A possible ARO fund? States forcing the plugging of old wells?

It really is the elephant in the room to many.

"Andy: '1m orphan US wells would suggest plenty of O&G owners have gone to the wall.' - and guess who gets to pick up the bill to retire them?"

The states that they exist in I guess. Which is my point. As far as I know (which isn't far) non have bailed out a failing O&G company because they didn't want to deal with their wells.

I'm not sure the cost of retiring 70k wells can ignored just because no one else wants (or can) to pick up the tab. It might not be a case of forcing DEC bankruptcy, but if it happens (not saying it will), I guess bond holders get the bill.

1m orphan US wells would suggest plently of O&G owners have gone to the wall.

*would you buy

It's quite hard to pick one's way through the ever increasing hot air on this board. Perhaps posters should just ask this simple question and leave it at that: In essence, if you had the chance, would you the entire company for c$600m given it has c$1.7bn of debt and c$1.7bn of future ARO's?

A better business plan would have been to expand the plugging business aggressively. This, it would seem, is going to have no end of future work.

My answer to the above is 'No'. I'm still out and watching with ever increasing disinterest, which is a great shame as I really liked this company a few years ago.

GLA

Still not convinced this is the low. Blackrock reducing, Bridgewater increasing short, BB's having no effect. Gas prices not moving up, debt increasing, court cases outstanding. Basically no good news particularly. If DEC go under 800p then not a good sign.

DEC going for it. Another acquisition in Texas. $35m worth of shares to be issued. 4mmboe uplift in output. More debt, more shares. Market looks uninterested.

Oak makes a good argument on a number of levels. One subject not dealt with is the difference between what is said by the CEO and what is done. Below are a few examples off the top of my head:

'look carefully at raising finance through share issues in the future' (said after SP decimated by placing for asset purchase a few years back) - share issues have been done a number of times since, causing concern to many.

'committed to reducing debt' - not yet anyway.

'never cutting the dividend' - no comment on this one.

'letting investors choose bewtween capital repayment or a dividend' - an epic disaster and abandoned.

It's all very well buying up assets because you think they are basically cheap but at some stage it has to come good right? When is that time? When, in a nutshell, can DEC sit back and say 'ok, done with buying. Now we just produce and make tons of money'

GLA. Still out but trade long and short from time to time.

New shares to be issues on the 19th. So buying back a small number daily and then issue another ton. Anyone know the deal price on these shares or was it floating?

Net debt $1.64bn up from this time last year and up from end of last year. I can only go on the set of results really.

A poor set of results. I've been out for a while now and no inclination to get back in. Will wait for more clarity if it ever arrives. Debt up (were told it would be reduced), loss on financial instruments, EBITA seems to be made up of tax gains to a large extent. Basically the same fairly incomprehensible set of results. Correct me if I have read the accounts wrong.

GLA

Assume GG is back now the price is falling again...my thread is mostly filtered so assume it's him. Just remember by his own admission he bought a ton @ 105p or so old price and did not take his own advice to sell. So a massive loss for him as well as many others here.

Time to move on. 1500 posts? That's amazingly sad.

All the best to holders. Jury still out (possibly literally) IMHO