Member Info for Andy144

Er...I think we are trying to work out if they are being accurate with their figures. It is pretty much the crux of the matter as 65k wells being plugged is not the same as cleaning a hotel room. It is the elephant in the hotel room.

OK I'll rephrase that. How many do they have that are commercially non viable out of their c65k wells?

It would be worth knowing how many wells DEC 'need' to plug at as of now (i.e no longer commerically viable in any way).

These ones will likely as not cost less to plug as more recent ones - probably being shallower. The cost to plug a well today will be less than it will be to plug one in 10 years unless technology / new methods can step in. I would say it is extremely unlikely that all plugging costs will average out at $21k.

Just done a little digging on buyback disclosure in the US. It is quite different from the UK and daily market updates do not appear to be required, just a report at the end of each Q with a log of transactions.

Possible then that DEC are buying back in the US and not the UK. This might account for the rise in the NYSE after UK closes and then a fall (or no corresponding rise in the UK). Who knows. Just speculation.

"I am more concerned about the similarities with NMC than Burford. In that situation it was a FTSE100 business and the Muddy Waters attack, continually rejected by the Board, turned out to have substance."

Carson B is very good at what he does. I'm sure DEC has crossed his desk.

Perhaps the short attack is just starting. It is quite possible this is why RH pushed through the NYSE listing without any warning (to speak of). It takes time to compile the short story. With enough warning, there may have been more when DEC's bell rang in the US.

It is all too easy to throw mud at a company with opaque accounting (just see what happened to Burford) and some will stick. Good shorting effort by the schoolboys. Broak Bloke must have been up all night with that response. If a real shorting outfit like MW has a go then it might be far worse for DEC. The boat has possibly sailed on that one.

Response from DEC...Meh.

Down in the UK. Up in the US. Someone's making some dosh.

We just need Muddy Waters to have a pop. It's amazing how sentiment, fear and greed can take hold. Vultures circle the wandering desert oxen. Will it fall over, hoofs in the air, or make it to the watering hole?

Another short position opened?

TW Bearcast out on DEC. He usually sticks to AIM shares. I don't subscribe so I have no access to it.

I too have massively reduced my holding to a level where I will sleep much better at night. Just holding enough to keep an interest - win or lose. I had high hopes for this company and still think it could do very well.

It's a great shame as I have held since the beginning. FWIW my reasons are:

1) rebuttal letter was weak. It is doubtful the congressional committee will draw a line under it yet.

2) As long as the court case drags then the share price will drag.

3) If DEC lose the court case then they have to stump up c$650m back to EQT. Flood gates open and DEC are stuffed.

5) Seems to be a question mark over capping & plugging costs.

6) I carefully look at all my shares each New Year and cull under performers.

7) Can always enter when the waters look calmer - DEC won't double overnight.

8) Risk / Reward has gone negative IMHO

As a last aside, it is getting quite apparent that governments are hitting O&G co's really hard and yet they have not quite realised that the world has no alternative (not even close). There is a complete disjointed view in this. It would not surprise me at all if DEC are found liable on some of the court issues. A plugging fund requirement could easily be intoduced.

Here in the UK we simply tax the O&G's to death, not realising that the need the black stuff. So in a few years, no more oil from the NS and we ship it all in from who know's where. We should have been Norway. What a fantastic job they have done - and didn't even get Dutch Disease doing it.

Good luck all holders inc. GG

Https://climatecasechart.com/case/mcevoy-v-diversified-energy-co/

Agreed. I have traded it today. When you see DEC open 30p down on no volume it nearly always tanks after that. Might recover a bit when US opens. Always worth following what hapens and when to get a handle on the trends.

Big price drop on really low share volume - just lots of small buys / sells.

According to Researchtree, one of the 2 shorts has closed out. I think it's TT international.

I agree that it would be much more beneficial to be clearer. Here are my calculations: Last trading statement has a RCF of $425m with $135 liquidity giving an RCF debt of $290m assuming little cash was on hand. Last presentation has $1450m of fixed debt with $270m of that supposed to expire in 2023. If it was paid off then debt is now $1470m, if not then $1740m. Neither amount equates to $200m being 12% of debt.

DEC is a US company first incorporated in the USA and domiciled in the USA. It came to AIM to raise funds as it was very small. To do this, I imagine, it had to register as a UK company also. US companies, domiciled in the US have to abide by US tax regulations.

Hi. It is not incorporated in the UK. It is a US business which is listed on the UK stock exchange.

@aoc

I calculate net debt at ~$1,650m immediately prior to the transaction, up from $1,505m at 30 June.

Does this include the $270m due to be paid 2023?

Regards

@SPA

"if it was so easy and lucrative everybody would do it"

Unfortunately, this shows your total lack of understanding. It is not about being lucrative. Look back and see DEC accounts for 2022 - a big hedging loss. It is about having a predicable level of income to pay for debt. Sometimes DEC wins on the hedges and sometimes they lose, but their income will cover their outgoings come what may - that is the theory anyway.

Hmm. Selling 5% of your assets to reduce debt by 12%. By inference, that means that 40% of your assets will pay off all your debt. I think I would take that. Remember, they can workover, infill drill and do a number of other activities that can increase production without another purchase deal.

Market seems to like it ATM