Member Info for Andy144

GDP: An interesting subject, one which most government monetary policy committees seem to be fixated on.

In it's most basic form, GBP is the total of all economic activity in a nation, for a set time period - usually a year. But a simple thought experiment will show that this is a dangerous notion to hang all your egg baskets to.

The reason for this is velocity of money. In a nation of 10 people who each have $1, assume that each person makes one transaction a year with one other person. 10 transactions of $1 will give a GDP of $10. Now enter inflation.

When you get serious inflation - as we now have in the UK which I think is realistically over 10%, or even hyperinflation as in Venezuela, the 10 people do not want to hold onto their $1 because it will buy less in a few months. (This fuels even more inflation). So in our 10 person country, the money supply is still $10 but there are now, for example, 2 transactions per person per year. The GDP is now $20. This is far too simplistic of course and does not take into account WHAT the goods and services are but it does show that GDP is a figure that should be used carefully and not a be all and end all for the state of an economy.

@JS "Cuphalf we are in this economic mess because of the politicians !"

We don't have to accept politicians as they are. As a nation, we are too lazy to consider an uprising against the system. The monetary and political system is inexorably woven together and until one of these is broken, will remain so; leaving the rich at the top of the heap getting richer.

Hope is at hand. The monetary system, as we know it, is doomed and on life support. Something it has been on since 2009 and then given a slight reprieve during covid. This is something most people do not know about or do not want to know about.

It will probably start in the US (as most things do), timing unknown. The debt mountain is now totally unsustainable there and in many other countries inc. the UK. When the politicials talk about 'tighening belts and living within your means' they have absolutely no clue as to how money works or probably even where it comes from. The current system totally relies on ever increasing debt to fuel 'growth'. This, by it's very nature is self defeating.

Once the monetary system fails, the political one will follow. Unfortunately it is human nature to put oneself and one's happiness before that of others', so what it will be replaced by anyone's guess.

For the doubters, the recent rise in gold, silver and bitcoin (i.e any asset that cannot be controlled, for any length of time, by central banks etc.) might start to suggest that fiat currency is looking very shakey.

Make sure you have a bit of the above - or anything that cannot be printed into oblivion. Keep an eye on the weakening dollar.

This is not intended to scare or be a rant. A few days studying how the modern monetary stystem actually works, and a little careful thought on it will show it to be totally absurd. What one does about this is a bit more tricky.

Ahhh, our American cousin has popped in to say howdy. Nice to see you again. What are the latest alternative facts you have for us this time?

Regards

Quite a few really poor posts today and yesterday. Here are some observations:

a) The price is going lower on very small volumes - no large investment positions are selling.

b) If one takes the last RNS at face value, something you have to do if invested, then DEC is in good finacial health. Short term debt issues might be weighing on the SP but these are being lowered each day that DEC produce.

c) DEC dividends, if maintained, will pay for an investment at today's price within 5 years. With the production reducing at something between 5 - 10% PA and debt reducing to zero by 2030 then I cannot see this not being maintained.

d) Capping issues: DEC have been right up front with their capping obligations. Nothing hidden. The USA has - apparently over a million oil and gas wells, with many 10's if not 100's of thousands being ophan wells. DEC are now well placed to benefit from this and the green's will be bleating about the ophan ones and hopefully leave DEC alone, who happen to manage theirs with responsibility.

e) Share consolidation will cause some uncertainty but this isn't being done from a distressed position. IMV there were far too many shares out there in the first place. It is possible that DEC might well "hide" a share issue to purchase assets in the near term, something that had been totally blocked to them with the current price fall.

f) It basically boils down to this: trust DEC's model and financial position and wait for the re-rate (which has to happen if the figures are correct) or don't believe them, make up any story to justify why the price is falling and spread doom. The market can be completely irrational and sometimes defy belief.

So far @2pm a good day, up nearly 2p

Still very low volume. It will be interesting to see how things hold up with the US listing and consolidation.

Market driven lower on very small volume. The market will always eventually find value if there is any. If the model is as DEC say then there is value. Just have to wait it out. If DEC keep paying the dividends then the market will adjust...eventually.

2 x 50k blocks bought at 10:50, possibly share BB resumed.

Why wait then? Sell now, it's a done deal. So it will lose 50%? Just because the SP is suddenly high? Absolute basket post. So you are saying it will have a yield of 40%? i.e investment will be repaid in 2 1/2 years (less with reinvestment)????

All those points probably play a small part. The share volume is very low and it looks like there is a seller out there still and the MM's know this. Seller probably a fund or distressed seller.

Bottom line: Each day DEC reduce their debt pile. With no further acquisitions, DEC will start to pile up the cash. Lots of cash = good share price, divi's etc. Cash can then be used for expansion or redistribution. This senario is my personal preference (FWIW) but might just have been forced on them by recent events.

Purchase so far today....7000 shares.

It's been falling since the high at 10:30 this morning actually

Consolidations happen all the time in the market. The companies are always valued the same afterwards barring the daily market movement that would occur anyway. Your post is possibly one of the most ignorant I have ever read and proves that you know precisely nothing about investing. Filtered,my US friend.

Interesting turnaround. I like the consolidation as there are too many shares floating about. If it's not technically a dual listing, where will the shares come from? Will DEC have to purchase the shares into treasury and then issue them in the US?

And you don't need to keep signing off with your handle - we know who we all are - it's the big blue name on the left of each post.

I will make my own judgement thanks and it's a slam dunk hold.

Exit rate reduction minimal - certainly not 10%

Price realised - not in the control of DEC and hedged anyway.

Adjusted costs the same and extremely low anyway

Liquidity $15m more than the last update, indicating the RCF is being reduced whilst performimg BB's and paying Divi.

Tough luck there Judge. Chart trading isn't easy.

DEC make a lot of free cash. They do not hold it as cash because:

It pays down the RCF. it is paid in dividends, it pays down the amortized debt.

Good news in the USA with inflation fears receding.

A useful piece of analysis there Gavster. It will also be worth noting that the decline rate will also decline as the newer wells start to mature. It is unlikely that in 7 or 8 years time the decline rate will remain at 10%.

I think I have said this before, but I would quite like to see DEC stop their asset buying, reduce debt and see how things start to look.

Locked. Any chance of a copy and paste? it looks extensive