Member Info for Android101

'cant see Amazon doing anything in Europe'

Would be mad to build a network, invest in spectrum and then sell access to Amazon at lower than cost+ something. In the case of VOD, cost + something that improves ROCE

LoL I know nothing. I got 66p in roofers weekly prophecy

Appleby, expect the unexpected. I added at 74.2....

Wherever they decide to offer branded mobile, they need a network operator to host the service. Fingers crossed VOD hosts the UK/ EU. That could be huge volume and revenues..

'Wait for price to form a base over several months and test before going long.'

think it did that at £2 and then again at £1...next 50p?

@isleworth, it was also interesting to see UK, Italy and Germany as standalone on the group structure with the rest of europe bundled up. It certainly suggest the strategy options being considered. Just need a big deal to land that doesnt upset E& strategy. I expect E& want to be aligned with standalone UK, Italy and Germany and then the 'right sized' rest of europe.

This evenings IR call also clarified the context of next years dividend against lo/ no spectrum commitment, fixed interest cost 3% whatever happens to interest rates going forward, ring fenced capex (intensity), so that I was left more confident it will be 9cents again next year too. Obviously it's up to the BoD in September and based on (rebased) performance.

Interesting on the call now, a Spain 'deal' will be layered in on top of the must do better outlook. That would be more than €4Bn if they sell the lot

I suppose it could be E&, another 1.5%, but that would be 1% over their 15% authorisation and would suggest they are going for 20% and a 2nd board member. Could be Malone closing his short which he said he would do ultimately, but more to come to close his position.

RNS this week?

66p for me please roofer

'The conceited fatty Bailey'

Funny, that's what I think when I see him. All those dinners. I am hoping MDV will have lost a few pounds next time I see her. She must be running between meetings with no time for dinner.

Looks like debt ceiling talks positive and vote on wednesday

'EPS and free cash flow would reduce accordingly'

I think MDV has set guidance to allow for a sale/ big deal without interruption to the underlying momentum. She hasnt set herself up to fail and Etisalat may take another 5% to press for an Africa deal imo

'cutting edge tech, to make more money.'

Global regulators agree price controls to encourage new technology and productive markets. They consider firms pursuing cost reduction to keep pace will eventually exit the markets rather than finding new products to make profits (3 UK case in point?). So Petty is doing thr right thing. A leadership demonstration? E& sees vod as a vehicle to ensure UAE isnt left behind in next phase product technology generations . All good imho

So thats a short closing from 83.45? The UT has been c20m for a while and now 33m. Maybe we pick up a bit from here. I hope so

I suppose VOD treasury is hedging the 90,000 staff less 11,000 the employee share save scheme. Wouldnt surprise me if its VOD treasury leading the charge

Yep, so predictable. I might go all in for a short to 70p

If E& take another 5% and a 2nd seat on the BoD, that will secure the strategic direction. Presumably Liberty and Illiad wont be selling to them. UK and Spain where prominent in MDVs presentstion. Selling Italy to Illaid for €11.6Bn looks off the table for now, probably as she wants the cash flow to beat the forward guidance or she might be out sooner

106 for me please roofer

'probably registered in the Cayman Islands - that has been relentlessly shorting this for a while now.'

Could it be E& building their position. UK offshore is popular with middle east, secrecy, governments dont pay tax etc . Since Camerons time I have been suspicious this kind of deal making. Unregulated rather than illegal. Agree FCA should look at it but not like SEC did into Madoff

Take a look at page 29 (appendix 1V).

Obviously the sales of vantage, hungary, ghana made a dent so that net debt reduction/ progression is improved materially this FY, €33.4Bn vs €41.6Bn last year. So the improvement in net debt to EBITAal ratio is a big + and could improve VODs rating profile. We will probably see something from the rating agencies shortly.

As a lot are saying, VOD may need another big deal to convince the market and perhaps thats UK and/or Spain (Italy could be €11.6Bn) but I think they need the cash flow until all service revenue/ EBITDAal cyclinders firing across the group.

The bond maturity profile on page 29 is not particularly onerous and not a cliff edge as many try to say on here as you can see on the profile. Average c.2.5% coupon out 2063 and VOD can roll the debt forward eg spectrum never wears out. And while there there is a cost too reuse it for 5G etc, the likes of E% are underwriting the future value of technology generation and their governmental/ economic interests. VOD in the meantime has the focus just on getting more subscribers and strategy/ marketing budgets allocated according to MDV. If the 3 UK merger happens the 5G capex will be wrapped up in the deal I imagine and net positive for VOD.

So if debt is an issue, imo its that VOD has a very low coupon rate which makes the bonds less valuable when traded as you can get 5, 6 or 7% elsewhere at the moment and if I was involved would be arbitraging between the SP and the bond price...

So to answer your question, how bad is the debt?. Well, how high are interest rates going to go, and how much will VOD bonds drop in price and how much is hedged to VOD SP? I dont know. But for sure, the interest cost to VOD is very low. Managing the weighted average cost of capital is also made prominent in MDVs slides and she has highlight where she wants improvements.

https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2023-05/Vodafone-FY23-Results-Presentation.pdf