"do wonder who is selling at current prices"
If you mean today, nearly all were buys but showed at sells.
Over the last few weeks or so there has not been much volume so hardly anyone is selling , or indeed buying. Those that are selling are probably distressed sellers who have to (unexpected bill) or those that think another punt will move quicker than this in the very short term.
They maybe right.
I'm still confident sp will be nearer 3p than 2p by end of year due to FB income being confirmed in an RNS
"I hope those private thank you messages are not all from Ma Baker to Ma Baker "
I'm sure they are not. They are probably to Ma Baker from Bauhaus, Dani and twinkle3 over at ADFIN :)
(Calm down Dani -Just joking !!)
Looks like all buys today apart from:
1.45 x 100k and 1.5 x 50k sells
So 1.8m buys v 0.15 m sells. As far as I can make out.
Looks like a 1.25M buy ?
at 1.5p I assume its a buy?
It would be good to get some clarity on this at the AGM - which should be in less than 4 weeks.
I don't know if anyone attending wants to ask some questions on behalf of the group, but if they do the other question would be what is CB's revised expectation of Gold production at FB (it was 80kg to 100kg) and when does he think it will reach max production? End of the year?
Yes I know his answers are not in an RNS but its the best option we have at the moment :)
(My Q3 was, does he feel embarrassed and guilty for his terrible forward guidance and trying to gaslight the shareholders - but I think it's best not to include that one :) )
The problem with the monthly FB income figures being quoted is that very few state £ or $ or, moreover, if its Revenue or Profit.
I think £250K FCF a month is a reasonable assumption but that's clear profit and after all tax paid (Corp and mining tax). That would be the equivalent to circa $500K a month revenue pre tax.
Completely agree with all your points James
"as forecasts have a big element of CB in them people are clearly applying a discount here on future cashflows "
looking at the sp, It appears the discount being applied is 100% :-) I'm sure that will change as soon as we get actual full results with profit stated to Xtract
"expectations are now skewed from failed PR strategy, but it doesn’t mean BR is a dud"
"Company looks fairly well positioned to me and imo undervalued at present mc."
I agree with the above points but because of the very poor expectation management by CB and his inaccurate forward guidance (being kind there) its difficult for many to have a lot of confidence CB will convert all the potential / good fundamentals into actual SP increase..
In short all trust has now gone with CB but that doesnt mean all future potential here has now gone.
It seems difficult for the sp to climb when in the back of your mind you have Cb's failed promises / predictions. Hence why many are only going to believe it when they see it ...........in an RNS.
May be unkind, but probably true, I suspect the sp may rise if a new CEO was announced. That may free-up many to then focus on the good fundamentals here rather than CB's historical baggage .
CB likes his football analogy's - well the players have heard the manager's team talk far too many times and it doesnt work anymore. A new manager with different tactics, but keeping the same side, will see an improvement in performance :)
Tbf CB has delivered an income producing mine at manica . I think it would be unfair not to acknowledge that success
As for JN taking some credit, CB was the one who stopped JN from flipping the asset and selling manica and that seemed to trigger CB's decision to remove JN and step in.
Many of the other CB failures seem to be in Zambia and for the life of me I can't see why CB keeps going down this route esp when there is so much more potential at FB to exploit the transition and sulphide ore.
If a new CEO came in now I'm sure he or she, would re focus on manica and BR, and bin the zambia treasure hunts.
It has to be held no later than 6 months after end of year results - so by 30 June latest
We must have at least 3 weeks calling notice so it has to be called by 9 june.
I suspect it will be held as late as possible to give cb as much time to get good news in - so Friday 30 June could be the date
We should be getting an RNS announcing AGM in next week or 2 weeks at latest.
Delay could be because CB is finalising buy-out from AA for $200M and wants to announce it just before AGM. I may be wrong about that though...........
"I sincerely hope there will be a whole bunch of LTHs who can give him both barrels. "
I think CB must be aware that he's going to get a deserved hard time at the AGM, so I would expect CB to try and use some tactics to deflect or reduce the heat on him by getting some news out soon, even if it has to be just via an interview, about FB income.
With POC being where its is, I'm struggling to see how we are going to get any good news re RC in the next 2 or 3 weeks so he will have to major on FB income.
No doubt we will get a few exaggerated claims mixed in with the facts.
Maybe he will bring out the old one liner about "$1m a month income this time next year !"
He hasnt used that one for some time. At least that should please Dani :)
No way will CB be able to let BR just drift away after all he said. This was the big one according to him, not like the many other smaller punts.
I think CB will major on FB at the AGM and we should have some indication of better results by then. I suspect CB will play the card of "still waiting for results" re RC and try and use delaying tactics re copper plays.
He will do his usual, "don't look over there, look over here"
I think it highly likely, probably inevitable, that the POC will be going over $12K but I think the timescales are going to take longer than many would want. I think it understandable many may have sold up as things are not happening in the previous time scales and will no doubt take longer.
I'm of the view no news is bad news, or at least not good news as CB would be shouting about it. Thats re Copper plays but we will no doubt get good news re FB when the actual profit is stated in an RNS. None of that appears to be priced in so I'm expecting the SP to move up Sharpley by end of the year due to FB.
I don't think POC will improve until next year as we will have head wins with the global economic slump for another 6 to 12 months. Thats why I doubt CB will be talking about the economics at RC for some time imho. I doubt RC is economic at this POC and even if were, it will be better to wait until early next year to talk about RC economics when POC should be much higher
Good news is that POG is much more important for us atm than POC as we have a Gold mine in production. That looks like it will remain circa $2K this year.
I'm still expecting sp to move to low / mid 3p's by end of year because of FB income, but we can forget about any Bushranger sale for 18 months + imho
"The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think"
And that's the $64,00 question (or that should be $64M question !)
Would the next wave see a more serious approach and "it really would be different this time" with CB.
I've been saying "this time it will be different" re Cb's latest forward guidance for many years !
Of course, may be next time it really will be different ! If you wait long enough and have enough money to keep betting on 9 Red - you should eventually win .
But whether you win more than you have already lost is another question :)
HZ
Another way of saying what your saying is that only a very small number of people know what CB is really like, so if we start to attract new investors they may naively and blindly believe what CB says re forward guidance.
That may well happen with a bit of good news to start the ball rolling. May be starting the new interest interest from FB income being announced?
If that starts the "new investors" coming in and a re rate of the sp, I wonder how many who are currently invested will take that as an opportunity to jump out, leaving the new naïve investors to deal with the consequences of an SP fall after actual results don't match CB's forward guidance? Rinse and repeat .....
Actually, I may have just described exactly how the Aim market works :)
Joe
Your bullet points of potential news releases could be correct, but the most important part in your post, imho, is when you stated....
" if the March presentation can be believed:"
The problem is many now don't believe any forward guidance timescales , and for good reason.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't think we will be hearing any news about RC for some time as we probably need more in fill drilling to improve the economics. The next likely news will be about FB income which will eventually drive the additional work required at RC .
As I say I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.
The next RNS will probably be AGM calling notice in 2 weeks
The mention of CE made me check if he has posted at all on his other shares - since he stopped posting here.
Nothing for a year.
I know he was invested in other of CB's companies so its a bit surprising / worrying that he abruptly stopped posting on all of his shares at the same time.
I hope he's OK and nothing untoward happened to stop him posting ?
I was in email comms with him and he's not replied to any emails either.
I bit worrying tbh I hope he's OK.
"he knew long before us that the grades/tonnage etc from drilling campaigns to date down the Bush were going to be decently shy of what he was earlier hoping/expecting.. and instead of trying to manage back expectations on a gentle/incremental basis he just 'kept digging'."
Exactly NtM
Almost as if he thought if he kept saying it, it would eventually become true :)
Whistling in dark springs to mine !