Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Would like to have the detailed retail figures also, but shouldn't differ too much from wholesales in a "make-to-order" appearance?
I appreciate there are no more 1/3 off offers for GT/sports - this is not Dacia, it's Aston Martin. I rather slowly build up higher sales margins, streamline my production to lower numbers and start behaving like a real luxury car maker than ruining my ASPs for a long time.
Talking about 2021 EBiTDA margin ist steadily rising from quarter to quarter - and Q3 included the following point:
"Net Opex Restructuring savings offset by non-repeat of furlough credits and investment in fixed
marketing activities"
C26: By the way I personally don't like people with this attitude either. But he's a proven businessman with lot of success and also some failures... nobody's perfect. And to be honest, Tobias Moers is way more important for the operational progress than Stroll is. I trust a lot more in him, even if he might improve his appearance in webcasts ;-)
Personally I think positive progress is e.g.:
- returning to ~6.000 cars sold (level of 2019). Yes this includes the DBX which hasn't been there 2019, but it's a proven fact that the old management team pushed wholesales way too much and dealers were full of cars which couldn't be sold. So I think true retail sales were way lower.
- steadily rising ASP is a great sign of solid demand for core models, especially as sport/GT range is a bit "overaged"
- steadily rising gross margin
- bringing Valkyrie to the market
....
Yes the progress is slow, especially from a financial perspective. But the situation is definitely improving...
Absolutely a high risk investment like a bet on a better future.
But the interesting thing for me is, what has changed... was it more attractive to invest in at the beginning of the year, when the SP was noticeably above 20 pounds? When it was more uncertain how Covid will affect dealerships? When it wasn't clear if the Valkyrie would really be there in Q4? When the goal of 6.000 cars sold was far away and can still be achieved with a strong Q4 now? Were people too enthusiastic then? Or are they too pessimistic now?
The point is, there is definitely a positive progress visible (in case you don't expect an armageddon due to this court case). But is it enough to make this company a solid one in the foreseeable future...? At least not until 2023, but this has never been promised differently ;-)
@ chat: to be honest I don't have a well-founded number for GROSS profit, because I don't have enough information about the valkyrie. Only the ASP and the communicated effect on this years EBITDA, therefore I tried some kind of backwards calculation to come to my 2022s EBITDA.
EBIT was roundabout 0, before c26 stated the higher D&A expenses. So rather negative.
Net therefore EBIT minus interest expenses, and those heavily depending on exchange rates (as seen this year).
Overall I saw my calculation rather "realistic", so there might be some up or downside, depending on your view ;-)
@c26: exactly and a good point for both directions: nobody knows the exact deal for the valkyrie etc and nobody knows the outcome and the consequences of the current court case. High level of uncertainty (probably one of the reasons for the current SP), but no need to fully panic and say AML will be ruined, but neither a reason for unreasonable optimism.
And yes I'd give a few bucks for a detailed insight into the deal and the current case ;-)
I have this court case in mind, but what would you calculate in here? In case AML loses, we'd probably lose those already stated 15m and would have to pay royalties, which were originally calculated in the whole Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish project... don't think these mentioned 20-30m per year would therefore ruin AML of you take a look at the sales possible with these 3 models.
So best case = case win, no royalties, 15 m lost.
Worst case = case lost, royalties to be paid for every car (originally calculated in) + 15m lost?
After you posted these links already about 20 times on this board, I think everyone knows there is a court case, yes. Nothing new, nothing decided, therefore nothing to reliably calculate in at the moment. Or do you know the real background? The facts out of this case? The impact on the future? Nothing but speculation at this point of time.
Here are some figures I personally expect for 2022, comments/discussion very welcome (insulting will be reported):
GT / sports:
I'd already be confident if this years sales level could be kept up. Why? For 2023 facelifts are announced, usually fewer people want to buy the old ones the year before. What could help is F1 safety car visibility and hopefully a full year of open dealerships (at least Q1 2021 was still affected by Covid). But GT/sports will most likely be the biggest challenge in 2022.
DBX:
due to mild hybrid variant already ready for the Chinese market and another variant announced for H2 2022, I expect sales to increase by roundabout 500 pcs in 2022.
Valkyrie / AMR pro:
Main driver of sales and improved profitability in 2022. Having read the number of roundabout 3 Valkyrie being produced per week (out of Q&A transcript stated by Tobias Moers), I expect a minimum of 120 units delivered and sold in 2022.
Total sales:
core roundabout 6500 units at 150k ASP
valkyrie roundabout 120 units at 2.5m ASP
--> totalling ~ 1.25 bn
EBITDA:
In 2021 YTD a margin of ~10% has been achieved without the Valkyrie, while a lot of improvements have been done during this year (paint shop, production line Gaydon, production line St. Athan). For total 2021 Management expects ~14% margin without the 15m provision for legal action, meaning the valkyrie will have a major positive impact with only a few units delivered.
Calculating with 20% EBITDA margin for 2022 (due to higher number of Valkyrie and full year of mentioned improvements), EBITDA would result in about 250m.
EBIT:
Would result in +/- 0, calculated with 250m D&A expense.
Net: loss of ~120m reflecting the interest cost at a stable exchange rate.
Cash flow: no real idea because I have no clue about how much is still to be paid for the Valkyries (deposits already made).
What do you think about these numbers? Any completely wrong assumptions and/or mistakes?
What would this mean for the SP? I mean these figures would be a major improvement compared to last years (sales record), but still a major net loss totalling the interest payments...
Thanks for hopefully keeping this thread to a real and good discussion.