Hahaha, LOL. My calculation is so simple, take the cash balance of 31.12.2020, add the financing activities during the year and deduct the balance of 31.12.2021. Thats it my friend. Everything taken out of official annual reports and quarterly results. Nothing you've just written changes anything of the fact, that "only" 135m have been burned in 2021. If this rate continues, the current cash will be enough for the next 3 years. While everyone is expecting the rate to heavily improve in the future, I'm sure you'll post some karenable facts in a few minutes proving us wrong... ;-)
And where are your 200m in 6 months now? And why do you only quote the 3 months cash burn of 75 m when knowing in Q4 the biggest part of interest payments was due? Does it probably sound more negative and therefore more suitable for you when you can say AML burnt 75m in only 2 months, imagine what this means for a whole year? It' so obvious what you want to achieve with these kind of statements... deramping at its best.
Why dont we make it easier... cash was 490m end of 2020, right? Cash raise was net (!) around 65m. Cash end of 2021 was communicated to be 420m. Isn't this around 135m for a whole year, just as simple as that? Or does this not sound negative enough for your purpose?
Don't you think the "cash burn rate" will improve due to increasing sales (variants DBX, Valkyrie)? Or is any positive progress not suitable for your deramping statements you keep repeating all day long?
200m cash burnt in 6 months? Now I'm curious...Again some sort of subjective speculation or do you have any facts at least here?
And don't come up with this bullsh*t that they probably received further deposits that they burnt during the period. Do you know how many deposits AML received? Do you know what they were used for? Probably development of VVV and/or production rampup, their very own purpose?
You wrote some hours ago: "The court case is 50/50, lose it and they are heading towards bankruptcy". So bankrupcy is subjective speculation? Thought you are the fact-man here, at least you admit speculating now! Wow.
Significant might be 10%, 20%, 30% of total sales volume of VVV - who knows. And exactly this is the point. Would this lead to bankruptcy? Do you think old management was calculating going bankrupt in case of sticking to contracts they signed by themself? Honestly? LOL
LOL. Not a single answer to my questions in your article and your post. Again where is the proof or your beloved "fact" that losing the case will result in bankrupcty? How high are the royalties to be paid? How high is the margin of the affected cars?
C26 where are the facts that a lost court case would lead to bankruptcy? Do you know the EBIT margins of Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish? Do you know the amount of royalties which would have to be paid to the Swiss guys? Do you have ANY fact regarding this issue (as I have none).?
Otherwise stop posting bullsh*t. Thanks.
Blablabla. Same sh*t, different day. The only Thing you can do is posting provocating questions, but obviously not able to answer thorough questions by yourself. Again:
- do you think AML doesnt have/hat the cash they officially state in their reports?
- do you insult management to be liars?
- asked 200 times by 50 different people: you are (still) invested... why? If the next cash raise or even bankruptcy is that close? Dont you think you'll lose a lot of your invested money?
C26 btw... do you have any proof the cash raise was necessary and used to cover current liabilities? Or isnt this pure speculation? Do you therefore believe the official cash figures were faked? As they should have been easily enough to cover those 77m liabilities? Do you say mm is consciously communicating wrong figures? Shouldnt they go into jail?
Last but not least... do you now notice how annoying your way of discussing is?
Yes results were worse than expected, but only shifted into 2022. This is only an effect of some weeks, so yes this is a big difference compared to 2020. In 2020 huge efforts had to be made to destock dealers, to support sales etc... everything cash relevant and not really foreseeable in its extent. Now it's because of ~ 15 special cars which will be delivered late (but already sold)...do you really want to compare these two years? And did you notice that core sales were above guidance?
Yes I missed the fact that it was a further bonds issue, no share issue. Remembered that wrong.
Where do deposits go? Wtf is your intent with this question? Just read my first post again - this might help you find the answer.
c26: probably because the 2020 result was worse than expected and they have seen a lack of cash to fully implement their 5y plan. Probably because the SP was seen as attractive (Feb was all-time high wasn't it?) to generate more cash for it. No better idea really, pure speculation as reasons have never been explained in detail.
Do you doubt the official cash figure (420m 31st dec)? What is your explanation for the cash raise?
I still don't see any urgency in raising additional cash. AML stated to have 420m cash at 31st december which means they "burnt" max 150m of cash in the whole year of 2021 (~490m cash 31st dec 2020 + ~70m cash raise in 2021 - 420m cash 31st dec 2021 ). Personally I'm expecting the following improvements for 2022 compared to 2021:
- achieved efficiency improvements in production during 2021 will be effecting total years results
- additional sales from whole year of valkyrie
- additional sales from new DBX variants
- additional sales from vantage V12
- communicated improvements in material costs during 2022 (vs. risk of inflation and ongoing supply challenges)
Even if they'd again burn 150m of cash in 2022, there'd still be almost 300m cash left. And again I doubt it'll still be that much, probably less than 100m. And again and again and again: they NEVER said 2022 would already be cash positive - earliest 2023. This was originally communicated in their 5y plan published long ago.
Also I dont get the point that AML burnt more cash because of received deposits. What do you think the point of deposits is? To use them as a kind of prefinancing for development costs, testing, production ramp up etc... so why is this money additionally "burnt"? As far as I know the valkyrie development and production ramp up was still ongoing during 2021?
And is it likely that deposits will completely break down during 2022? Is it said that all valkyrie customer deposits have already been made (especially for the "new" spyder)? What about upcoming specials and probably first Valhalla deposits? From my point of view deposits will still be flowing in for the next years and therefore won't have a major effect on the necessity of additional cash.
c26: define brutal... even IF the valkyrie is delayed (based on your non official "sources"), they still stated Q4 core sales will be much better than Q3 (due to temporary closure of St.Athan implementing improvements).
Don't you think sales for the current quarter are quite well visible for the management?
Why do you keep insulting them to be liars? Official wording (just 1 month ago) is there will be "some" valkyries delivered and core (esp. DBX) sales will be way better... what makes you think they should lie to us when the truth will be official in some weeks anyway?
Didn't the evil Mr.Stroll also invent Covid as he wants to ruin the whole world (not only Aston)? C3PO your posts are getting annoying...
I personally like a critical view based on facts, but your stuff - especially your brilliant sources like these "press releases" and the absolutely neutral "karenable" blog - expose you more and more to be just a basher with too much time (or too little real life)...
C26, calm down, he's talking about GROSS profit. So only revenue minus cost of sales, no operating expenses, no d&a and no interest included here.
Personally I don't think these 500m are realistic, but in the end even those would result "only" in a net profit of probably 0. Which would definitely be a huge positive progress, but i doubt this will happen already in 2022. 2023 maybe, as officially communicated.
Still no issue visible for me here. Given the production time of ~5 months, it's not a big deal to have ~3 dbx standing at each dealer for sale.
Regarding the EBITDA: interesting way of reading to be honest. I'm no native speaker, but my understanding is completely different here:
"The margin would have been better, if there were no one-time (seasonal?) furlough credits paid"... meaning margin has been improved, but offset by one-time effort...