Member Info for andmillsy

Just took a few more with my sparse remaining cash

Cracking results get a coffee if you haven't already and read it through. Delighted to read about the gold too. Well done Colin and team.

I don't currently hold here but will be timing an entry this week.
The report is quite comprehensive assessment of the value but clearly with a number of assumptions.
I feel under investment in new assets by the majors means this will be in the spotlight.
Interesting times

Worth a read - bottom section relates specifically to PANR
https://twitter.com/ValueSituations/status/1442509157895229442?s=20

Extracted points
>>>> PLEASE READ WHOLE REPORT<<<<<<<
PANR sits on a world-class oil discovery of 16 billion+ barrels of oil, and appears significantly undervalued based on precedent comparable transaction valuations for similar assets in the Alaskan North Slope area.

PANR’s current market cap of £420m / ~$575m implies a valuation of just $0.20 per barrel of oil (BO), based on the total estimated recoverable resource of ~2.9 billion BO. To put this in perspective, the most recent comparable transaction for PANR’s assets was Oil Search’s acquisition of interests in the Pikka and Horsehoe oil developments in 2017, when it paid $3.10/barrel of recoverable oil, or 15.5x the value of PANR’s assets as implied by the current market cap.

Pulling all this together, my indicative SOTP analysis values PANR at a risk-adjusted NAV of $5.20/share or £3.80/share, or ~6x the current share price of £0.60, as follows:

Today I received Corporate Action notice from Fidelity:

"Bacanora Lithium plc has received a cash and stock offer from Ganfeng International Trading (Shanghai) Ltd a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd.

You have been offered £0.675 in cash and 0.23589 ordinary shares in Zinnwald Lithium for each ordinary share you own in Bacanora Lithium plc.
Your options
1 – do nothing.
2 – accept the takeover by using the button below no later than 9 November 2021.

To help make a decision, you should review the information contained within the offer document.

If enough investors accept the takeover offer, it will become unconditional. We will then accept the offer on behalf of all shareholders who have not accepted it themselves."

Fully agree MtM nothing goes up vertically and I expect sp drop here with fear exacerbating it on Monday. Could be attractive top up opportunity

Spot down to 45. Some rumors on a trigger for this. Keep remembering though move had been +50% this month and yesterday -10%
"Word is that Japanese uranium trading group Itochu were deliberately walking down Spot price today. They do this to significantly cut their costs on received shipments that are Spot market referenced at delivery. By walking Spot down $4 they can save $4M on next 1M lbs shipment."

Morethanme
Well that prediction appeared to let the greyhounds out of the traps!!
Blimey what a day.
All the best I'm sitting tight...

Snooz that is whacky. As an alternative I thought Sprott could buy YCA as an easy(ish) way to acquire physical

I guess if you're a US investor you avoid fx risk.
I don't have clear view on this but I think the management charge on Sprott is only 0.35% and I'm sure YCA corporate costs will be greater equivalent %.
I agree that YCA has more flexibility
Interesting dynamic starting to play out in Uranium spot market as KAZ and others "need" to buy I understand c10mil lbs. In doing so they will likely push up spot pushing Sprott to premium allowing further raise for more purchases. Bring it on !

Sp28 where are you finding that out please ? No RNS today (yet)

Hi Ella
Fully agree - in summary - word is not getting out.
I did get XTRACT to post the presentation link as a retweet from the ********** link back in July. See link below but there is no real helpful introduction e.g. "contains a video from experienced geology team explaining the huge and growing potential at the Bushranger asset"
https://twitter.com/ZaksTradersCafe/status/1419614323526225922?s=20
Twitter isn't the easiest to search and locate however and the presentation isn't, as you say, on the company website which is quite an oversight.

I think that investor relations at XTR need to be more active on social media, consider the investor relations / marketing aspect in RNS's and reappraise the company website.
For example on Twitter @ResourcesXtract has 98 followers - fairly woeful. Compared with for example: ARCM 2,221 Thor 2,591, SolGold 4307
If Twitter is to be a marketing tool then a campaign needs to be undertaken to increase hits / followers.
The Eureka tweet by the corporate account is fairly poor "27 metres of 4.82% copper at Eureka" - yes that was it ! And no retweet of yesterdays video with Zak but maybe it is top of the IR to do list this morning ....

I think Colin is frustrated, as are we, that word isn't really getting out about the huge and growing potential. If Colin reads this then a bit of a marketing push on social media coupled with a review and update of the corporate website could deliver a rapid step change.

Lets assume we are now completing the accumulation phase and now we are ready to move into the public participation phase of the investment cycle with xtract :)

Just in time I think cboney and you did better than me at 4.10 !

Great podcast. Should bring some attention. Hearing immediate milestones on Africa projects was great. Insight into hole 17 at Bushranger was appreciated. Thanks for putting it in (mainly) understandable terms. Wake up market!

where is a time machine when you need one...

cboney just got quote of 4.085 to buy 200k you may wish to try now dependent on your volume

Replacing Uranium Spot with $49.50 lb and updating exchange rate to 1.366 (dollar strengthening) then NAV is £3.83.
SP at 10am uk is at £3.55 so discount is 7.3% still great value imho

Uranium oxide in concentrates (“U3O8”)(1) (A) lb 15,855,601
U3O8 fair value per pound(2) (B) US$/lb 50.00
U3O8 fair value(2) (A) x (B) = (C) US$ mm 792.8
Uranium derivative liability(3) (D) US$ mm (3.4)
Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities)(4) (E) US$ mm 22.8
Net asset value in US$ mm (C) + (D) + (E) = (F) US$ mm 812.2
Exchange Rate (G) USD/GBP 1.3794
Net asset value in £ mm (F) / (G) = (H) £ mm 588.8
Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury (I) 153,671,232
Net asset value per share (H) / (I) £/share 3.83

Really helpful thanks.

I guess I'll appear like I'm losing the plot as I'll now answer my own question but it's not be useful for others. I asked the question below to John Quakes on Twitter (well worth a follow). Got the following answer:
"Sprott can buy physical #uranium whenever they have sufficient cash, no matter NAV premium or discount. However, they can't raise cash when units trade below NAV unless willing investors agree to purchase large quantities of ATM units at a premium price just above NAV."

Thanks for the information Snooz very helpful. Whilst the "delay" is frustrating it indicates to me the new management are ensuring it is correct and has best chance to progress which may not have been the case in the past.