Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Cashflow is the key and half year report didn't provide adequate evidence of MMP agreement generating cash in the bank for XTR.
Half year balance sheet didn't show the expected inflow imho and the statement from quarterly production report reinforces for me it's not yet received
"The Net Profit share due to Xtract for the 6 months ended 30 June 2023 is estimated to be US$2.1 million"
I'm sure I got the same figure as you the morning after they reported 150k purchase.
I think they may have updated now..
42,495 -31,525 = 10,970 so $73/lb
I've ignored daily management fees.
The prior 100k lot seemed high price - greater than 76/lb
Very opaque
This was intriguing read between Kuppy and Quakes
Kuppy
@hkuppy
·
2h
Someone please correct me if I’m wrong here, but $CCJ plans to buy 11-13m lbs of U in 2023. So far, they bought 5m. So there’s 6-8m of spot purchases planned?? Some will come from Inkai in Q4, but there’s still a LOT of spot purchases planned for Q4…
John Quakes
@quakes99
Yes, and as Grant explained they can strategically increase the ratio of Spot #uranium buying in order to drive up the Spot price, which will then increase their future revenue on the market referenced pricing for their entire delivery portfolio. Take a small hit for a big win.
No worries and thanks for the clarification.
To get the price paid you also need to make an assumption about the daily decline in cash for management fees - if you look at other days when SPUT didn't make a purchase of raise funds you can get an idea of the daily cost. Seems to be c60-80k small in relation to the size of the purchase however. I used the same source as you e.g. the sput tracker.
Anyone else having issues with getting yellowcakeplc.com to load correctly and display implied U price in the green box on right of screen?
Just throwing error messages for me. Strangely works if I use an incognito session.
Don't want to think the bargain implied U price being offered by YCA isn't being fully marketed !
Masplin - what's your source ? https://numerco.com/NSet still showing 74/75 and then 74/76 for Feb 24.
Useful interview with focus on tight market and drivers for future price increase
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/uranium-bull-run-procurement-strategies-on-demand-surge-and-market-new-phase-on-the-next-6-months-4321
Very helpful James. I know you get this from your reference to production tax but repeating as it may help others - the reference to royalty is nothing to do with Empress royalty 3.375% which is solely for MMP account and this was clarified in RNS by XTR some time ago.
Kind of you to say that NtM - getting this below $1000/oz cost and if gold extends its gains to above $2000/oz the two factors really would shift the needle.
I really would like to have some clarity / proof of the actual cash flowing into XTR coffers.
Https://youtu.be/dSUtAhvodHs?feature=shared
Quite wide ranging and interesting interview.
From 6m30 - utility action including analyst view on $90 + per lb
Production challenges including Niger and adding volatility to spot price.
16min30 illustrates current supply gap 150 to 300 mil ramp required
22min30 about Kaz and supply route and differential pricing for this supply point.
Gordie/Howezap
Here is what he wrote in the annual report which was issued at end of June 2023.
"Production has stepped up further since the balance sheet date with the plant processing approximately 40,000 tonnes
of ore per month. The new plant has proven reliable and is producing recoveries of around 88% from the oxide and
weathered transitional ore. The plant has C1 operating costs of approximately $800 per ounce."
Unclear why he decided to quote C1 costs - I would have assumed they would be broadly similar to operating costs which are actually relevant to the agreement with MMP for FB. Infill drilling must be incremental to C1 costs but part of operating costs and there are likely other costs which are additional to C1 for example site security and general faciliities etc.
I think the answer is about 6.19 versus 6.24 based on below but I can't update the google sheet - for obvious reasons !
lbs 20,155,601 (21682318 - 1500000) remove future inventory
price 74.00
fair value 1,491,514,474
cash 133,850,000 35.6 plus (1500000x65.50) Oct cash plus cost of future inventory
NAV 1,625,364,474
fx 1.2117
NAV GBP 1,341,391,825
Shares 216,856,447
NAV per share 6.19
So for the whole of Oct with some rare exceptions YCA discount has been more than 10% whilst SPUT has been a lot narrower sometimes even a premium.
Main factor I can think of is fear of future KAP deliveries the value of which are baked into the NAV calc.
If YCA don't get the U then KAP don't get paid so the "loss" to YCA is the impact to NAV of having fewer lbs.
Request to Snooz ... any chance you could crank the numbers for the YCA spreadsheet to show the NAV without the future delivery lbs but with greater cash balance excluding future payments for U delivery ? Would be interested to know what the resultant NAV would be. Thanks.
Not sure James but could it be that no revenue was reported for FY2022 for FB - its not clear from the annual report if they did get income during ramp up in Q3, Q4. Gold was 1136 and 2546 oz total of 3682 oz from production reports.
If it is related to a catch up then the $250k discrepancy would mean $68 per oz for their 23% share.
The lack of reference in the 2022 report to income from FB makes me think this could be the case and operating cost per oz would have been high in a slow ramp up period. Arguably some provision should have been made for this income but if there were loose ends in definition of operating profit then perhaps they were allowed to omit it.
Might be worth checking with Joel ?
I have posted this before - not sure what lessons can be learnt from UPC historical performance duirng U price spike.
https://x.com/ValueSituations/status/1697588353351229684?s=20