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Discount has been closing, helped in part by GBP / USD.
Does anyone know if they could still exercise have a KAP purchase option they could excercise ?
Recently raise has been triggered pretty quickly once premium to NAV has been achieved.
$700 is too low. I would suggest for operating costs use the statement from CB in the annual report on page 25
"Production has stepped up further since the balance sheet date with the plant processing approximately 40,000 tonnes
of ore per month. The new plant has proven reliable and is producing recoveries of around 88% from the oxide and
weathered transitional ore. The plant has C1 operating costs of approximately $800 per ounce"
Land tax is not related to with where the gold is sold. Selling gold in Dubai ensures a higher sale price per oz than when they were selling in Moz due to VAT. Last production report quoting average realised sale price per oz would indicate that gold is being sold in Dubai.
The cost of team on ground from Explorator is likely, my opinion, an additional cost to the $800 / oz. The last production report doesn't make this clear. I suggest this shold be explicitly asked at the AGM. I won't be at AGM but questions I would like to have asked around Mozambique and FB following the last quarterly production report are:
1. Now FB are achieving commercial production and even nameplate capacity has been reached. Are XTR receiving the $20k per month as per RNS when MMP were appointed ? Is this a separate income line which could be reported or is it netted off the production costs ? If separate income then disclosing this would be helpful in the next quarterly report.
2. The production cost quoted of $1185 / oz in last production report - is this inclusive of production tax or is this a separate cost which XTR as licence holder need to settle ? If it is a further cost above the $1185 then a footnote to explain this would be helpful in the next quarterly report.
3. In the annual report you indicated more recent C1 cost of $800 / oz now plant is processing 40k tonnes per month is this equivaleint to operating cost on which the profit share agreement is based ? Going forward is $800 / oz a reasonable assumption for shareholders to assume when considering investment potential of XTR ?
4. Do you still have an on the ground team in Moz ? If so are the costs of this team included in the $1185/oz or is this a separate cost as it is shared with alluvials and hard rock. If separate it would be helpful to continue to disclose the quarterly cost of this team as done pre Fairbride. Can they give an indiation of the cost per quarter of the team ?
on nsw tms annual report for el8585 has been lodged by *****on hills today. i can't see the details.
el5574 is due shortly as well on licence anniversary.
no new applications lodged however eg for new drilling etc
Taking a quick look again at the model, theFX rate has helped get the breakeven closer to $4 but that is clearly still too high but it is helpful and gold price assumption could also be increased for further help.
This was my analysis after some calcs I did in Feb using the older Optimal conceptual models from July 21 RNS. Short summary for those who don't want the detail... Seems breakeveb $4.25 /lb $1800 per oz. 9 year life, $1.4bn capex and looking only at higher grade at RC. It's not strong enough hence the Hail Mary shot with ore sorting.
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I mentioned before I have taken a look at the NPV using the original conceptual mine study assumptions. I have got close to the Optimal NPV model but I have ignored taxation.
I then plugged into the "Optimal" model the values for the higher grade element at Racecourse only. I updated the exchange rate of Oz$ to 0.7 rather than 0.75 in the model. I stuck with 8% discount factor.
It appears from this that the NPV produces a similar value to the conceptual study with a Cu price of $4.25 / lb rather than $5 /lb in the conceptual mine study. I think I have been fairly cautious with increasing both opex and capex by 10% for the greater ore body. I have left life of mine at 9 years. I have treated a small amount of the capital as sustaining so its very front loaded.
Gold is making a bigger contribution to NPV than in conceptual study at gold price of $1800
Clearly this excludes all lower grade ore and also excludes any of the higher grade JORC resource at Ascot as waiting to see updated Optimal work to know if it can be economically joined up.
$4.25 is getting closer to what it needs to get a buyer imho but I think it needs more work to get it lower.
I am sharing this here for discussion as the proper work to inform investment decisions will only come from Optimal and hopefully in the next couple of months.
The spreadsheet is a bit rough and ready, there may of course be errors but hope it gets a bit of constructive input and comments.
Quite a lot has been done in fact in these 12 months.
Eureka written off £1m hit
Cash down from £5m to sweet fa
BR mothballed for 10 months
Need the full report to try and understand how Fairbride has benefitted XTR in 2022 but the selective posting of elements of the accounts doesn't help but hopefully the full audited report with auditor statement should be on the website soon.
I suspect the delay is due to audit delays due to challenges with completing financial statements as definition of net profit with MMP is still not finalised and hence XTR P&L for 2022 can't be finalised.
I sincerely hope this is addressed quickly and that they provide the promised financials with Q2 23 production reporting. This should have been there from day 1 of production imho.
Any clue who is selling in volume ?
Hey Snooz thanks for the real estate view !
This pictorial representation of shorts confirms what you have said.
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/JE00BF50RG45/
Very helpful Leah and hope to see you in RIG
Here is what we have been told so far - it is increasing
Progress but a lot slower than we were told.
Q322 35kg
Q422 79kg
Q123 123kg (preliminary from XTR Q4 RNS) of which 52kg was March from Empress info (1670 Troy Oz).
Its only one part of the picture and we are still awaiting to see what it means in $ based on 23% of operating profit but gold price should be very helpful.
Frustration for me is it has taken a lot longer than we were told in 22 June 2022 RNS "22 June 2022 "As at today's date, Fair Bride production has started with the introduction of low-grade ore to commission all parts of the processing circuit. We expect that by the end of Q3 Fair Bride should be up to full commercial production. "
Naively I assumed he meant Q3 2022 !
Commercial I recall is defined as 70% of full capacity (80-100kg output 42,000 tonnes input per month)
From email from Empress
The Manica gold mine (“Manica” or the “Mine”) has successfully completed its first gold pour in Q3 2022, and Empress received its first revenue in that same quarter. Empress owns a 3.375% gold royalty on the Manica gold mine located in Mozambique and operated by Mutapa Mining & Processing LDA (“MMP”). Based on reports provided by MMP, Management has continued to de-risk the mine and plant with production increasing month over month, including through the rainy season in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023. Gross mine production has grown from 460 oz in July 2022 to 1,670 oz in March 2023, an increase of ~260%. MMP reports the plant is largely considered completed and the open pit operation continues to be de-risked. Grade control efforts are leading to a stable feed grade and the plant is averaging a metallurgical recovery of 88% in March 2023 as compared to 85% in the second half of 2022 as reported by MMP. Current throughput and grade provide further room for material growth in production for the longer-term, and as such, management expects continued increases in production, revenue, and revenue attributable to the royalty.
Not seen this before - anyone else realised it was there ?
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/XTR-Presentation-Feb2023_v2.2.pdf