Member Info for andmillsy

Here is what we have been told so far - it is increasing
Progress but a lot slower than we were told.
Q322 35kg
Q422 79kg
Q123 123kg (preliminary from XTR Q4 RNS) of which 52kg was March from Empress info (1670 Troy Oz).
Its only one part of the picture and we are still awaiting to see what it means in $ based on 23% of operating profit but gold price should be very helpful.

Frustration for me is it has taken a lot longer than we were told in 22 June 2022 RNS "22 June 2022 "As at today's date, Fair Bride production has started with the introduction of low-grade ore to commission all parts of the processing circuit. We expect that by the end of Q3 Fair Bride should be up to full commercial production. "
Naively I assumed he meant Q3 2022 !
Commercial I recall is defined as 70% of full capacity (80-100kg output 42,000 tonnes input per month)

From email from Empress
The Manica gold mine (“Manica” or the “Mine”) has successfully completed its first gold pour in Q3 2022, and Empress received its first revenue in that same quarter. Empress owns a 3.375% gold royalty on the Manica gold mine located in Mozambique and operated by Mutapa Mining & Processing LDA (“MMP”). Based on reports provided by MMP, Management has continued to de-risk the mine and plant with production increasing month over month, including through the rainy season in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023. Gross mine production has grown from 460 oz in July 2022 to 1,670 oz in March 2023, an increase of ~260%. MMP reports the plant is largely considered completed and the open pit operation continues to be de-risked. Grade control efforts are leading to a stable feed grade and the plant is averaging a metallurgical recovery of 88% in March 2023 as compared to 85% in the second half of 2022 as reported by MMP. Current throughput and grade provide further room for material growth in production for the longer-term, and as such, management expects continued increases in production, revenue, and revenue attributable to the royalty.

Further reduction in Marshall Wace short position now below 1% for first time since June last year.

Not seen this before - anyone else realised it was there ?
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/XTR-Presentation-Feb2023_v2.2.pdf

TR1 seemed sale seemed to have been mopped up in period to 16 Feb with SP increasing slightly in the week running up to 16 Feb - slightly positive imho.
Marshall Wace have been decreasing their short positoin
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/JE00BF50RG45/

The investment case is the spot price of U correct.
No stated strategy to sell. Imho they may eventually become a takeover target - commodity house or utilities etc.
There has been historically option to trade in range of 10% discount to NAV or occasionally higher to close to 0% NAV.
Check out their website for quite a lot of useful data www.yellowcakeplc.com
This presentation may help https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Yellow-Cake-Investor-Presentation_January.pdf

Tarot cards!
50% over subscribed is the result in this morning's RNS. Excellent demand and mentions new II.
Good indication of how U is gaining investor interest
Can you do your magic on the xls once all information is known please ?
Cheers

Just realised, maybe it's been there for a while, that the company are essentially sharing near real time info on discount to NAV via implied U price. Don't know when this change was made as there had been restrictions preventing RNS of daily NAV similar to an investment trust.
https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/
Will be interesting to see if they can follow SPUT with a few days of premium to initiate a raise to fund further purchases and potentially exercise KAP option

Wow - fixed already - thanks !

The NAV on the excellent google sheets for YCA appears to have an issue at the moment. It seems to be stuck using a spot Uranium price of $50.38 from Friday which doesn't reflect the decline in the last couple of days.
Just be cautious if using it to time a purchase as the discount to NAV is deeper than currently indicated.

Dani - I said something different.
29000 TONNES per month = processing capacity for commercial production.
42000 TONNES per month = nameplate capacity
My expected grade is 1.8 g/t you could assume a higher number if you believe appropriate.

I disagree with using the interviews in this manner as unfortunately imho Colin has not been as clear as he could have been.

Bottom line for me as the statement of truth is the RNS https://xtractresources.com/investors/rns/manica-hard-rock-collaboration-agreement/ and not what Colin said in an interview.

And the RNS statements are illustrated by company statement in this presentation on slide 8 which is pretty much forward revenue and profit guidance
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-presentation-July-2020.pdf

To get to the cashflow figure stated on slide 8 means operating costs are c$550 per oz. This is way more than the costs of the Xtract team on the ground if you use the 30,000 oz p.a. in the presentation then the annual costs are $16.5M and these costs are deducted before Xtract get their 23%.

James kindly shared a calculation which I think is self explanatory.

1300*94% = 1,222 (assumed POG at date of presentation less 6% production tax)
1,222-550 = 672 (deduct operating costs taken from DFS)
662 * 68% = 457 (net operating profit after tax at 32%)
457 * 30,000 = 13.7m (net operating profit x ounces produced per annum)
13.7m * 23% = 3.15m (net profit with XTR share at 23%)
3.15 * 7 years = 22m pretty much reconciles to the presentation

Clearly there is a significant tail wind to benefit XTR with the POG being close to 50% higher but the mechanics of calculating the XTR share are as above but I would increase the $550 per oz to reflect 3 years of inflation.

So it's told me the answer is 42 ...

I agree A4444 it's optimistic but maybe he'll read the board and recognise these are concerns which need addressing

You can take a horse to water but you can't make it drink...

Asked if these can be part of the roasting... Let's see
Few questions on Manica for me Kevin
1. Fairbride it's not clear when we will get a clear view of operating profit from which we get 23%. Delayed Q3 said it will be reported half yearly. Does that mean it will be in Q4 22 production RNS which hopefully is out in Q1 23?
2. Is Colin surprised that 6 months after first gold pour that FB still not achieved commercial production? Eg 29000 t per day of 42000 capacity. Have MMP got issues with staff and capability?
3. For last 2q gold sales have been at least 10% below gold spot rate. This indicates domestic rather than export to Dubai refinery as when domestic XTR lose the VAT. What is the problem with getting exports done?
4. Why has Guy Fawkes % of gold earned dropped dramatically in Q3 to below 20% rather than 26% per agreement? These are both before production tax.
5.alluvials how much life left in then given steady drop
6. Any exploration underway or planned

Bonus one
1. What has happened to Eureka. Production in Q3 22 we were told in 2021 chairman report. Is it a dud?.

Sunday special with CB today per Telegram

My biggest surprise was no spin on how quickly it is ramping up. We have a good idea from Empress public info.
Looks like 62kg produced in Oct by my reckoning.

Statement by Empress "MMP has advised that the Company has earned royalty revenues of $185,800 in respect of the Manica gold mine from commencement of production in July 2022 up to and including October 31, 2022"

$185000@3.375%@$1750 per oz =3132 troy oz = c97kg cumulative gold produced to 31 Oct.

Ok I admit I am feeling glass half empty or maybe the glass has a hole in it ... bit of history on production results where they were issued late

Q1 2020 was the first real delay in production report 27/5/20 prior to this they were within 1 month +/- a couple of days - 50% reduction on prior quarter
Q4 2020 released 26/3/21 - 50% reduction from prior quarter
Q1 2021 released 2/7/21 - 30% reduction from already poor prior quarter

This one was comical ...Q2 2021 released 5 Oct - not particularly strong but then hot on its heels the very good Q3 2021 released 14/10/21 just 9 days later !
Q4 2021 was quick and had good results it was released on 18 Jan then 25% reduction for Q1 2022 only released 22/6/21 and then Q2 2022 a further 30% call released on 30/9/22.

I know there's been Covid and I know some quarters have rains but there's a theme here.

Not sure that they would batch up multiple quarters but there will likely be some narrative in Q3 results to try and spin how things have been better since 30 Sep 2022.

I have no idea why Fairbride is taking so long in getting to commercial production. Would be interested to know if there are production targets in the royalty agreement with Empress who incidentally have a first charge on certain MMP assets...

The picture shared a couple of days ago by Empress surprised me a little as it looked like the Marie Celeste. I guess the pickup in the car park belonged to the drone owner who took a trip out there during the Christmas shut down.

I hope the process to export and sell the gold has been completed which had caused Empress a delay in declaring revenue from Manica in their recent quarterly update

Dani
I'm assuming your question was for me andI certainly wouldn't be so rude.

Future sell price of BR divided by number of shares in issue at time of sale = notional value per share of sale in example below I chose 40p for shock, awe, humour and controversial impact.

With some rough assumptions .... considering outstanding warrants, options etc then let's assume number of shares in issue =1bn at future sale date. Today its about 800m shares in issue approximately.

So the very hypothetical sell price for BR in the mythical example is 1bn shares x 40p so £400m.

I could have said for the last line
"with the winner emerging with a to purchase price of £400m" however I found the rhyme and stanza difficult to reconcile.

Please note the choice of 40p per share (aka £400m) caused a challenging ethical dilemma this was resolved by consuming a copious amount of alcohol

Andy formally Andrew but not 4444

Andrew
I posted an alternative and more science based analysis of the share price projection factoring recent and projected developments.
It appeared on the other channel apologies for those who also peruse the dark side and for whom it is a repeat

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;
The assays were back and filed with great care
In hopes that 2mt soon would be there;
The shareholders were dumbstruck and all sh*t their beds,
When Bird's 1.1mt @ 0.22 messed with their heads;
Has the Bird at the helm got us all in the cr*p?
Or was there a chance that a deal could be had?
A decision to mine caused some uneasy chatter
Could African income really solve that matter?
Anglo American said "Exercise option? Cheerio and goodnight"
Then the copper shortage began to bite as $5/lb roared into sight
Desperate majors chased the Bird with great zeal
With cheque books and pens poised to strike a deal
When Newcrest and BHP began a bidding affair
With the winner emerging at 40 pence a share.

Matty
this example from similar porphyry in Oz may be helpful to you.
5 year initial high grade, overall slightly larger deposit based on recent XTR MREs and low cut off grade applied.
Challenges for XTR versus this deposit are lower Cu grade and higher strip ratio however there is higher gold at XTR.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02570080-6A1110359?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Useful summary
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02599465-6A1122704?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4