Member Info for andmillsy

Reduced short positions for last few days per short tracker

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/JE00BF50RG45/

Reduced holding from 11.9mio to 11.2 mio - hopefully they are done now.

https://x.com/patmvcr/status/1951157096340459863

Well today was rather disappointing ... on the topic of how is the price determined

Conversation with Chat GPT on methodology for determining purchase price indicates it COULD be 5 day average... extracts from the text produced by the AI engine...

Updated Summary Table:

Purchase Purchase Price (USD/lb) Fits 5-Day Averaging? Notes

April 2019 $25.88 Yes Spot prices stable, short averaging fits well

February 2021 $28.95 Yes 5-day average (15–19 Feb) = $28.96, aligns closely

January 2023 $48.90 Yes (plausible) Spot stable; single day or short average likely

September 2023 $65.50 Yes 5-day average (12–16 Sep) aligns with reported price

Overall Conclusion:

Yellow Cake’s uranium purchase pricing from Kazatomprom appears to consistently align with a short averaging window of around 5 business days for determining the price per pound. This short averaging smooths daily price volatility while closely tracking the spot market price at the time of purchase.

Some more detail on the Sep 2023 purchase

Uranium Spot Price Context (approximate, based on TradeTech / UxC weekly data for September 2023):

Date Spot Price (USD/lb)

Sep 11, 2023 ~64.50

Sep 12, 2023 ~64.80

Sep 13, 2023 ~65.20

Sep 14, 2023 ~65.60

Sep 15, 2023 65.50

Sep 18, 2023 ~66.00

Sep 19, 2023 ~66.50

Sep 20, 2023 ~67.00

Sep 21, 2023 ~67.20

Sep 22, 2023 ~67.50

Sep 25, 2023 ~68.00

Sep 26, 2023 70.50 (reported)

Possible averaging windows resulting in $65.50:

Sep 11–15 (5 days): Prices range from ~64.5 to 65.5, average about 65.12 (slightly below $65.50).

Sep 12–16 (5 days): Including some slightly higher days, average moves closer to 65.50.

Sep 13–17 (5 days): Slightly higher range, could give average near 65.50.

Since the spot price on Sep 26 is quite high ($70.50), it’s unlikely it’s included in any averaging for a $65.50 price.

Here is what Quakes said back for this purchase announced on 27 Sep 23

>>>>>> Price is locked in at Spot price on the day that $YCA calls $KAP to exercise its option $YCA then has 10 business days to raise the $100M cash needed for final payment.

Spot price was on or around purchase price of $65.50 around 19 Sep 23.

Fingers crossed Andre called KAP on Friday or even first thing this morning !

Masplin - that is the case I understand.

Last purchase RNS supports this but not completely specific but purcase price was $65.50 and spot at the time was $70.50.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/YCA/proposed-purchase-of-uranium-and-placing/16142958

The RNS was dated 27 Sep 2023.

From 13 Sep 2023 to 27 Sep 2023 there was a fairly rapid increase in U from $62 to $70.

I think Quakes wrote up something about the pricing and it may be in the prospectus - I'll see if I can track anything down

Marginally but premium....

Might be bout to get interesting

$25m raise

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/05/12/3078974/35318/en/Sprott-Physical-Uranium-Trust-Raises-US-25-55-Million-Through-Non-Brokered-Private-Placement.html

One shorter - Qube - has reduced their short position, albeit in small way, for the first time this year. Let's see if others follow.

KAP window dressing - worth a reminder

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KAP/kazatomprom-announces-2025-production-plan/16145319

Should be 31,000 tonnes for 2025 and they dress this up as holding guidance ... more like a 20% - 6000 tonne miss

"Looking through the weakness in the U308 spot price, Shaw again stresses this market is not indicative of “industry fundamentals” and points to upside in contracting prices above US$100/lb, with the view the upcoming cycle could realise a price of US$150/lb or more.

TradeTech noted at the end of last week uncertainty led sellers to lower offers, with the last transaction on Friday 14 at US$65.25/lb for 50,000lbs of U308 delivered to Cameco’s Canadian facility.

Other transactions were conducted at US$67.75/lb for ConverDyn’s US facility and US$65.50/lb for Orano’s facility in France. TradeTech’s Mid-Term price indicator stands at US$76/lb, and the Long-Term price indicator at US$82/lb."

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/02/18/uranium-week-confusing-spot-weakness/

Numerco app has just updated and is closer to Uranium Markets

Feb 25 Bid 69.50 CXO Ask 70.25 CMX

same for Mar 25

Apr +0.25 on the Ask and May +2.00 on the Ask

Just shared on Twitter from Uranium Markets

Uranium Markets February 6 2025

:

U308

$69.50/$71.00 Feb 2025; 100,000 lbs cvd

$68.25/$69.75 Feb 2025; 100,000 lbs cmc/oro

$69.50/$71.00 Mar 2025; 150,000 lbs cvd

$69.75/$71.25 Apr 2025; 150,000 lbs cvd

$70.00/$71.75 May 2025; 100,000 lbs cmc/oro/cvd

$70.25/$72.00 Jun 2025; 100,000 lbs cmc/oro/cvd

$70.50/$72.50 Jul 2025; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$71.00/$73.00 Aug 2025; 100,000 lbs cvd

$71.25/$73.50 Sep 2025; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$71.50/$73.75 Oct 2025; 200,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$71.75/$74.25 Nov 2025; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$72.25/$74.75 Dec 2025; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$72.50/$75.25 Jan 2026; 50,000 lbs oro

$72.75/$75.75 Feb 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc/oro

$73.00/$76.00 Mar 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$73.25/$76.50 Apr 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$73.50/$77.00 May 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$74.00/$77.25 Jun 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$74.25/$77.75 Jul 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$74.50/$78.25 Aug 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$74.75/$78.75 Sep 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$75.25/$79.00 Oct 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$75.50/$79.50 Nov 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$76.00/$80.25 Dec 2026; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$76.75/$81.50 Mar 2027; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$77.75/$83.00 Jun 2027; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$78.75/$84.25 Sep 2027; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

$79.75/$86.00 Dec 2027; 100,000 lbs cvd/cmc

Now price is BID CVD 69.75 (delay of tarrif?) and ASK 71 CXO

Talk that tariff be 10% for energy including uranium

Frustrating it's withdrawn typical of it being such an opaque market. Next best option is to yellowcake website for mid price or norjack on twitter

It's doing something I've not seen before on the price tonight

Bid at CVD in US $71

Ask at CXO in Canada or France $69.75

Never seen bid above ask

Earlier this evening was

Bid CVD $71

Ask IND market indicator $72

Wonder if it's something to do with trump's tarrifs

Get the numerco app from Google play probably on Apple also

Bunch of asks about $80 for November and following months!

Eg Jan 26 $80 CXO

Numerco same as last night at 70.75/71.25 for Jan, Feb and Mar

Https://saadkhan88.substack.com/p/uranium-what-to-look-for-in-2025?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Useful article

https://redanalysis.org/2025/01/17/uranium-us-nuclear-renaissance-global-geopolitical-race/

Not familiar with Exchange Market Size what does it mean please? Is reduction a good or bad thing?

Thank you