Member Info for andmillsy

I think it's worth taking another listen to this interview from January where Colin is clear about 2mt and decision to mine going hand in hand.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8014752-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

I listened to this again tonight with regards to expectations about upcoming revenue RNS but the Bushranger statements are very clear.

Regarding the end of April target stated in the interview. I think there is some slippage, in the aspirational target, for reasons outside the company's control.

Permits for new drilling were submitted on 5 Feb. The submission was within Xtract control so should have been know in the interview.

The application should have been determined within 4 weeks per NSW targets. It was only determined on 6 April so it took 9 weeks which was outside Xtract control. Note receipt of permits has not yet been officially announced but assumed based on TMS status.

I want to get the best outcome from indicated and inferred resources as I think this helps shift the needle on sale price, either x Mt or npv on decision to mine. If this means more drilling for a short defined period to increase/define resource, without a need for funding, then I think that's the best approach to maximise shareholder return and I'd support that.

I hope there's a clear statement on immediate drill plans, for example, in an upcoming RNS following recent receipt of drill permits and IP survey results.

Based on initial observations from holes 44, 45 and 46 I'd like to ensure we get a good deal for Ascot and would be ok to wait a couple of months to realise the maximum value from this inferred resource.

32 votes in total. 33 with yours Rob :)
0 - 250 was 3 votes
I didn't vote for that outcome.
There isn't a commentary with a vote but it's an interesting measure of sentiment from a reasonably well informed group

Votes for Q1 revenue on Telegram poll

Poll : What do you think revenue will be for Q1 in $000s
9% - 0-250
9%- 251-500
6%- 501-750
32%- 750-1000
22%- 1001-1250
6% -1250-1500
16% - 1500+

Personally I'd really like to also get an update on copper revenue which Colin mentioned in interviews around Christmas from the mystical Chongwe asset in Zambia.

Thanks Noel
Let's hope 50 provides solid support once breached

Noel - any insights on the price action today ?
Thanks

Good to know CE.
I have also built a decent position here. I recall our conversation with Colin at the XTR investor conference in Oct and how positive he was on BZT. He has reiterated this in many interviews recently as well.
All the best.

Interesting and I remember similar from the last time the share price went boom.
1700 followers on twitter for Cele7tial so may get some attention / trades
https://twitter.com/andmillsy/status/1512430400982982671?s=20&t=bPk3Bt6H2qOU7MdaVXpiXw

Released 2 April.
https://empressroyalty.com/investors/presentation/

Empress are still stating Q2 for Fair Bride on page 21.

Interestingly page 16 has graphical representation of revenue by year and it looks to me as though Manica 2022 irevenue forecast is about 3/4 of 2023 full year revenue forecast and not just 1/2 of 2023.

Assuming the nice graphs have a monthly forecast spreadsheet behind them ...it may be possible the plant is opening with revenue flowing rather soon this quarter.

I give up... Multi tasking isn't for me...
*** Q4 production was much more then q4 sales so there is ready to sell stock ***

Anyway hopefully we'll find out in next couple of weeks

*** q4 production was much less than q4 sales ***
An edit button would be nice...

Andrew
I have another investment in Moz and it's been a challenging cyclone season but
I suspect Colin's been playing a long game.
Q4 production was much less than Q1 sales so there is ready to sell stock from my read of the alluvials and I hope this will be a good cushion against reduced production in the quarter or even an eye catching revenue uplift.

Any chance you could take a look at DM I sent you on Twitter please ? Thanks

Higher SP would be useful in negotiations and I think breaking $1mil could be a wake up call followed hopefully with Fair Bride news

"creeping" !
50mil at 11am highest since 18 Mar Mank renewal which was c92mil
lets hope the momentum continues into the pm

hmmm trying again Q4, Q3, Q2, Q1
Share of production oz 767, 437, 120, 79
Share of sale oz 360, 152, 139, 0
Revenue $k 559, 221, 214, 0
Avg $/oz 1638, 1453, 1539, N/A

Could we breach $1m revenue ?

Jamiescakes - was writing at same time as you !!

I'm hoping we will get Manica Gold Update in next couple of weeks.
For Q3 it was reported on 6 Oct and for Q4 it was reported on 18 Jan.
This won't have the benefit of the Fairbride income yet but it will hopefully be a wake up call to the market.
The table below is a quick view of attributable XTR share of production and sales for last 4 quarters.
Full details in RNS from 18 Jan
Note there are 400oz from Q4 in "stock" and I would expect these to have been sold in Q1 and likely some Q1 production as well. Note as well average gold price in Q1 should be closer to $1800 per oz based on spot gold price in Q1

*** Tables don't appear to exist as a concept in LSE but below numbers are Q4,Q3,Q2,Q1***
Share of production oz
Share of sale oz
XTR Revenue sale $
Avg price$ per oz N/A

Great job DC

MM
SFR have a lot on their plate but they have big appetite in KCB and appear to want to secure the district. Exploration funnel and resources should likely be distinct from production resources so hopefully they have capacity to progress. Acquisition of Spanish Mine was similar time to completion of GLR licences and they must have known the Spanish Mine was a potential long before.
Timescale referenced in 16 Sep 21 RNS on licence sale completion. Therefore 16 Sep 23 for $4M spend on drilling.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GLR/update-on-sale-of-kalahari-copper-belt-licences-alcodwza01am8a5.html

Exploration Commitment: Sandfire has to spend US$4M on the Included Licences (the "Exploration Commitment") within two years of Completion (the "Exploration Period") and if the US$4M is not spent, any shortfall will be paid to the Company. The Exploration Commitment is to be reduced by the amount of the Reimbursed Exploration Expenditure.

Success Payment: a one-off success payment is to be paid to the Company for the first ore reserve reported under JORC Code 2012 edition on the Included Licences which exceeds 200,000 tonnes of contained copper (the "First Ore Reserve") in the range of US$10 million to US$80 million depending on the amount of contained copper in the First Ore Reserve (the "Success Payment"). US$2 million of the Success Payment will be held in escrow for up to three years pending any claim by Sandfire under the Licence Sale Agreement.

No interview (yet) DVH. Rumours of CMRS on Roast at end of week - will let you know

Very possible but shake to what ends? Fill a stink bid or for MM to hold and await for news. Recent placing feels to be while ago (6 months) but yep that's possible.
We're lacking volume/ new investors and languishing at a low price as the story here is a bit complex with a few dimensions.
Feels very undervalued imho eg npv of Mankayan at typical buyout % and taking BZT 27.5% is way larger than MCAP for BZTand BOD for IDM Int who will arrange ASX are big hitters. 25 year mine licence
2.8mt #copper, 9.6m oz #gold, 20m oz #silver mainly indicated not inferred.
And that's just one of 4 big opportunities
However I'm preaching to the choir...

IK surely to share your theory would give far greater satisfaction if you prove to be correct... I'm all ears....