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Agreed. Whole sector suffering together...

May have something to do with the deal the founders have...

Hmm I suspect the owners of Wagamama carried out a full auction process run by an Investment Bank. I also suspect the Indepenedent Directors of RTN were advised accordingly and independently. It will be interesting to see if the major RTN shareholders force the Board to reject the acquisition and pay the exit fee. Tricky one.

Oil price fall not helping sp, drilling delays not helping sp but I agree with you they have set the company up for some exciting drilling opportunities. Hopefully California news soon. The U.K. projects will take longer I suspect...Romania very much a 2019 story as is the Onshore has appraisal well....GLA

Tangled web oil price days. We now have Trump, Saudi embassy in turkey, war in Yemen, Iranian sanctions etc etc how do the managements of E&P companies plan their future capital programme with all that uncertainty? I’m old enough to remember when Shell and BP wouldn’t approve a development project if it didn’t make a great return at $18/bbl. these days have gone I suspect.

I like the mgt a lot because..... they have discovered most of their reserves rather than acquired them. Many exciting wells coming up in the next few months which could potentially more than double their reported reserve base with the help of Norwegian taxpayers :) Methinks DNO May have waited too long to bag a bargain here.
Oil price not helping their sp but will recover soon imo. I’m a buyer for the LT.

The current CEO Mr Read was the Vodafone FD for the past 4 years. As FD one of his main tasks would be recommending to the Board what a prudent and (more importantly) sustainable level of dividend should be (the NEDs won’t know what the answer is without him!). His other main job is ensuring a gearing level that is both prudent, affordable and gives them flexibility to grow.
If I were him I would cut the dividend as VOD’s huge yield is having minimal impact in supporting the share price. Lowering the dividend and reducing overall debt would help the share price more imo. (An externally appointed CEO would cut imo).

Page 8 of Spire’s 2018 Interim Presentation bullet point reads: “Unprecedented depth and speed of decline of NHS electives”.
The NHS elective surgery carried out by Spire/BMI/Ramsay has fallen dramatically. That’s a decline in a large percentage of their overall revenue. That may have slightly put off HCA/MDC as it has happened quickly since their interest last year.
My 94p NAV “calculation” was based on f/y 2018 projected full year ebitda (Spire’s own forecast numbers) times 14 minus Spire’s total indebtedness. I bought slightly below the current sp as I believe their markets will improve plus these types of assets have been changing hands above that 14 x multiple. Plus obviously MDC stake is attractive.
*I did say 14X was my guess, you could easily plug in a multiple for your own NAV analysis.

Nope I’m not shorting SPI, I have owned these shares for a few months. I thought they’d be taken out by MDC tbh.
Please ask yourselves why the lending banks ONLY have ebitda related covenants in their loan agreements and the equity analysts ONLY use ebitda multiples to value this and all other healthcare services companies. These are not residential or hotel assets they are highly specialised, highly regulated and highly capital intensive healthcare assets that need to be filled with highly qualified clinical staff. Book value tells the reader what its cost to build it, not what it’s worth!

Ok Mulder I get that you own shares in this co but please when 14x ebitda equates to 94p per share your comments on the 2x ebitda Valuation are disingenuous. Plus Spire can own as much real estate as the NHS but it matters not to the valuation of the company. For a start most of their real estate is leased on 30 year RPI rent leases plus freehold real estate values are only relevant if they have higher alternative use valuations, these clearly don’t! “Never heard of Aspen” says it all really.

Maybe the “shorts” have the read the November 2018 NMC plc presentation where they said they acquired 9 Aspen Hosptials across the U.K. for “less than 2X 2018 ebitda?

New PV investors took a bit of a punt imo as the discovery/share suspension/fund raising etc all happened between late on the 9th of Oct and the 12th of Oct. I would guess that the trade-off for little or no DD was the 50p offer price plus the cash that LJ also committed to the company.
IMO if the business model works this will be taken private soon as the public markets have long memories...

Fundamentally the Board still have to convince themselves that the PV business model is sustainable. With the shenanigans of £28m of cash really being a £10m overdraft I have my own doubts as to whether the model works.

Guys with the cash usually come out on top!
However it’s pretty difficult to see through the Connaught group but I’d wager they don’t have a lot of cash in the Connaught/Rathlin group! Back to buying minotirty stakes in private companies. It’s ok when the likes of Corallion are farming out wells and arranging “carries” etc that give rise to plenty RNS opportunities. But how do Rathlin afford to do anything other than let UJO/RBD drill a well? Personally I’d prefer if we were directly on the licence itself as it would automatically revert if anything untoward were to happen to the Connaught/Rathlin group.

Hope so, that will at least stop all the speculation and endless drilling rig & supply boat tracking that’s been going on!!!

Sorry not missed the point, didn’t mean to make it sound like that. But these are completely transformational wells which could “potentially” lead to two relatively massive oil development projects for Baron Oil. I don’t think it is too much to ask of them for a regular update as the proposed spud date approaches or has it passed? Even if that is only “waiting on OGA approval to drill the wells”.

Always

Many thanks IHAIO. But that’s almost two months ago and no update on timing or rig delivery etc for either of these big wells for Baron Oil. Perhaps naively I thought that all the listed companies involved in these two wells would have given us a better idea of the start date. However they may be waiting for someone in Govt to do something - a bit like the rest of the UK I suppose :(

Agreed I’m no chef but I suspect they wouldn’t sell too many 2nd day cream buns!

Sorry F/X I meant...