Member Info for Analysister

Final results due later this month. Hopefully we will also get an update on their search for a new CEO and someone to lead their US division.

Premier Oil sold 14.9million barrels of the Wytch Farm field back in 2017 (lower oil price) for $275million or approx £15 per barrel for developed reserves. I used about £7 per barrel for the Colter reserves if they are proved up because it requires some wells to drain the field. I may have undercooked it as the oil price is higher now and the Wytch Farm partners will really want the incremental production from Colter to keep their field producing to put off the large decommissioning liabilities (approx $1billion) for as long as possible. Valuable barrels is what I’m trying to say!

If you equate share price exactly with NPV then yes. However on a “risked” NPV basis it’s probably close to 1p as I think the COS of this well is around 50% according to the partners announcements. But it could possibly (unlikely) be a much larger oil field!! That’s the beauty of these E&P shares. Wytch Farm has produced 450million barrels and it is just next door west of Colter. Let’s drill it and see...as I said GLAH.

To try and answer your question!
IF and it’s a big IF the Colter well is successful and drills through good quality hydrocarbon bearing sands, the predrill estimate is approx 22m barrels. But nobody knows exactly how big the reservoir section is until they drill the well and correlate the two wells with the seismic etc etc. However if it comes in as they think then BOIL’s share is approx 1.8-2million barrels of an oil field adjacent to Wytch Farm and it will be developed by one or two long reach wells from the Wytch Farm drilling centre. At current oil prices I would guess this would be worth $20-25million net to Boil. Including their remaining cash balance that gives NPV per share of about tuppence.....GLAH.

The ******** is still here, still waiting patiently for this company to produce a penny of free cash flow from operations. I feel another share placing coming on just to generate some more cash for the unbelievable opportunity of delivering stuff for M&S :)
I’ll agree with you all when this thing shows it can actually generate positive cash flow that doesn’t come from the shareholders!

Come on Colter! Who’s to say it not linked to the giant Wytch Farm oil field - a kind of easterly extension :) The geologist types haven’t been particularly accurate so far so why not a surprise for us on the “upside”?

Looks like it - unless the KPMG Administrators receive such a big cash offer for the business to repay a) their fees b)secured creditors c) bank overdrafts and fees d) unsecured creditors e) wages and PAYE etc and if any left over cash it comes to the shareholders!
I would imagine Mr Johnson’s PE firm will buy it out if it such a good business. I don’t know as I have only been in a couple of their cafes in Covent Garden and Glasgow (both were full with good service and good coffee).

Share Options under their LTIP scheme all sold by the Execs. Plus the company admitted they had not disclosed the correct share amounts or accounted for them properly in an RNS after the Suspension!! Wow, but also...mention of further law suits regarding the purchase of a dental business (IDH) from AIM after a recent IPO and subsequent sale at a big profit. The Movie Rights might be worth something here!!

Here we go again! This could be the basis for a whole new game. A type of North Sea Monopoly!
Well let’s hope we find the right stuff this time round!

Presumably the KPMG investigative accountants will go back to pre-IPO financial records? I would imagine HMRC would be interested here plus a whole bunch of legal eagles for the banks, NOMAD, shareholders, FCA etc etc etc.

Hmm you are not wrong. Very few recent IPOs are shining public investments. Spire, Convatec, Saga, AA, Pets at Home etc etc not a lot of winners there for investors!

My complete guess would be 20-30% of the cafe locations are not massively profitable. I expect those could be subject to CVAs and the profitable cafes kept in a Newco. The bun fight will now be between the bankers and the sub debt /equity holders to divi up any value from this complete mess. The head office won’t be a very pleasant place to work at the moment I suspect. I hope they can protect as many jobs in the cafes as possible, the cafe staff have done nothing wrong and they will hopefully be well looked after. As for the bosses and directors, hopefully they will get all that they deserve from the relevant authorities.

Agreement ended today. Presumably they are now completely in the hands of their banks and their facility will now be “on demand”. The fellow Jensen will be in here only to look after the bank’s interests. Presumably the KPMG work will show if this business model actually works, and if it does is their any equity value or will it just generate sufficient cash to slowly repay the banks. I feel sorry for the institutions that invested equity in October as that money must now be at great risk. I suspect a private equity solution.

Excellent idea. It would give investors more confidence in the financial reporting that's for sure!

Multi site cash business!!
Take a Google at "Vitaldent fraud". Another multi site cash business, in dental clinics believe it or not!
External auditors IMO should be experienced business people - preferably over 50 years old!!!

Everyone should sell to DNO asap and wait for the next investment that Graham Stewart and his team embark on!!
GLA

If they can normalise receivables this thing will fly. All other KPIs look good.

Hopefully next week they will start the Colter dig!!
From a market cap of c£3m if we strike oil at Colter that would bring us 2m bbls close to Wytch Farm!! Maybe £20m of realse value. Only IF we strike oil as anticipated!!! GLA

Agreed 100%. Buyout is best option and hopefully MDC will realise that too!!
GLA

Ok let's have a sensible discussion on SPI.
1. After their IPO share price rose a bit. Best hospitals are RPI leased not owned.
2. PE house sold out their remaining stake to Mediclinic.
3. Bid made by Mediclinic at over 300p per share.
4. Had CEO & mgt hiatus. CFO left etc.
5. New CEO appointed just over a year ago.
6. Big plans and profit growth touted by new CEO in his first few weeks.
7. Profit warnings followed shortly after.
8. Ebitda on downward trend and close to breaching bank covenants.
9. Massive problem making money from NHS. Private pay tough outside south east England.

Frankly it's been a traders and shorters dream share.
I'm an unhappy but realistic holder btw.