Member Info for AML_007

@Jackwalker422 – There was a lot in that article to support the faith many have in Stroll’s approach.

He does know what he is doing with luxury brands and has more than a passing interest in cars.

I also liked his, not so subtle, little dig at Ferrari’s history compared to AML’s. :-)

The way he referenced 108 year history, suggests 110 years / 2023 will be a milestone marked.

Looking forward to seeing the F1 colours later today.

GLA / ISWT

Cheers, Paul. :)

PS
@Englangder and @robglfc – Please filter @Nite25.

@Nite25 is that man walking down Oxford Street with a ‘The end is nigh’ sandwich board.

Almost everyone will walk past this sign and ignore it, no harm, no foul.

I can’t see what @Nite25 is posting as he is filtered.

But I can see your replies to his posts, which are clearly winding you up.

{Tongue firmly in cheek}

Unfortunately, this means you are now the equivalent of someone wearing a sandwich board with
“The end is not nigh, don’t listen to him” on it, while following the other bloke where ever he goes!

{/Tongue firmly in cheek}

Honestly, it is DYOR on here.

@NoahsArk – Thanks, another interesting article.

I liked the fact AML’s £296m of customer deposits includes a “chunk” for the Valhalla.

The Valhalla doesn’t have a confirmed engine, or final production design and has a late 2023 delivery.

Yet, customers are already in the queue to buy one!

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Doyezee - That is a valid alternative. :-)

Even for an amateur investor like myself, I really do believe I've found myself in the right place at the right time.

Happy to admit there was more luck than judgement involved, but the SP tells its own story.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Loadez – In fairness, I do not believe that @c2645sg was a shorter.

@Jackwalker422’s eloquently written post suggested @c2645sg needed reassurance about AML.
(Joking that his negative posts were the equivalent of asking ‘Does my bum look big in this?’)

That was @Jackwalker422 4th post on the BB, so unlikely @c2645sg had filtered him/didn’t see it.
Therefore, the defending silence for me was @c2645sg’s unwillingness to reply to that post.

Many on here tried to reassure @c2645sg that the market knew AML would make a loss in 2020.

As far as I can tell, compared to @c2645sg’s other predictions, the AML 2020 results had:
- More DX sales
- More cash
- Less debt

Thankfully, the solution is simple and I’m going to filter @c2645sg from now on.

Cheers, Paul. :)

ISWT

@TinyPie – Really pleased for you and wish you and your wife all the best.

My wife loves the fact that we have made more on AML than we ever would with our savings.
(The bulk of which are still safely tucked away earning practically no interest.)

Take care, Paul. :)

The AML results are being announced on 25/02/21.

No idea why it is not listed in the weekly events.
(It is shown in today's The Times in their weekly events list.)

Happy to stand corrected…

But my (limited) understanding is that an unexpectedly terrible 2020 would require a profit warning.

The 2020 Q3 results were facts when looking backwards and “ifs and buts” when looking forward.
(What else can a forward-looking plan be?)

Everyone knows that 2020 has been far from a ‘normal’ year and AML is not immune from this.

However, the absence of an update doesn’t mean that it is worse than previously expected.

As others have said, AML will probably make a loss in 2020, which includes restructuring costs.

It is the beginning of the Stroll journey, not the end.

GLA.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Doit2morrow – Another nice link, thanks for posting. { Cool }

Good to see the CEO in a racing suit and clearly enjoying the drive.

AML certainly gives Mercedes a route to the VW Group equivalent of the Bugatti Veyron, Chiron, etc.
(Assuming their short term tie up becomes a longer term merger/take over. *DYOR*)

Cheers, Paul. :)

Apologies for the double post, don't know what happened there.

@c2645sg – You presume wrong and you definitely don’t know what I care about.

Yes, seriously. { Roll Eyes }

DBX Context:
Jan.20 - Stroll first investment in AML
Mar.20 – Stroll stepped up his stake.
24/03/20 – DBX factory closed and DBX testing was suspended due to Covid.
Apr.20 – Stroll becomes Executive Chairman (factory still closed)
Aug.20 - Moers joined as CEO

The whole point of a ‘new broom’ is to bring in the change required to turn AML around.
Or would you expect Stroll to say “Carry on chaps, I’m be in my office smoking a cigar?”
AML is in the middle of a major turnaround and this will, and should, take time.

You keep comparing AML with Ferrari, but no one else expects them to be in the same place today.
Even Stroll expects it to take him a few years to create his vision of AML as a luxury global brand.

I am a small shareholder who understands the complete lack of influence I have on AML.
I could ask all the questions you do and I would still have no influence, none whatsoever.
Instead, I have put my faith in Stroll, his team, his plan and the Mercedes deal.
If you consider this blind faith, because I don’t post questions here about debt, cash, etc. so be it.
It is my money and I am not asking you for your advice on what I should do with it.
So, no harm, no foul.

There is nothing you have posted about debt, sales, cash, etc, that is not known in the market.
So, the market is expecting AML to make a loss in 2020 and yet the share price is doing well.
Or, do you believe that you have some insight that the rest of the market is missing?
The 2020 results will be a stepping stone to Stroll’s 2025 vision and the market knows that too.

Finally, the questions for you were/are:
- Can AML build DBXs to order and there still be second hand DBXs for sale?
- Did Mercedes only agree a deal with AML because Stroll had no other options?
- Why are you a shareholder if you are so worried about the debt, cash burn/raises, sales, etc.?

Note:
It is this last question that is repeatedly asked by those you filter.
As they believe you are the one ruining the BB by posting all the negatives without any context.
Either you believe AML will prosper despite the debt, cash burn, sales, etc. or you don’t.
If you don’t believe AML will prosper, then it is a valid question to ask why you remain invested.

Cheers, Paul. :)

PS
@Yorkie56 – Definitely, my last reply this time. { Wink }
I just wanted to make sure @c2645sg had no excuse not to say why he was invested.
Unless, I am also now filtered because my posts aren’t up to the high standard @c2645sg expects.

{ Cheeky Grin }

Many years ago, my best mate’s dad had a TWR v12 XJ. { Cool }

The story goes that it that was Tom Walkinshaw’s own car, complete with prototype parts.

It definitely spent a lot of time in the garage with faults. { Roll Eyes }

But, for a LARGE 4 door car, the acceleration would pin you back in your seat.

Obviously, this was on the very rare occasion that my mate was allowed to borrow it.
(And the rest of us chipped in to the petrol bill, which was eye watering for any journey.)

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Yorkie56 – D'Oh!

My apologies, I was reading the posts top down and missed your request.

You are right and my work here is now done.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg – Your last direct question to me was:

“How much cash do you think they have left AML007?”

My answer is I have no idea, I’ve also never claimed to know, so why should I provide an answer?
(Especially given the number of questions you have been asked that you refuse to answer.)

You are the one who keeps ‘moving the goal posts’ here.

You have repeatedly asked about the Q3 DBX numbers and you have got the same answer.

It is only now, that you have asked about the why the factory wasn’t up to speed in Q3.

Which is clearly a different question, with a different answer…

Despite the millions invested, this is still both a new car and a new production line.

No new car factory goes from zero to full production capacity at the start of production.

There are a number of steps required to go from the prototypes to actual customer cars.

AML Statement - 24 March 2020
“Third production trial DBX's have been built at St Athan and final testing to ensure robust quality for customers continues.”

This statement was made as the St Athan factory was being closed down temporarily due to Covid.

But the key is “production trial DBX”, not demonstrators, or customer cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-production_car

Tobias Moers joined AML as CEO on 01/08/20.

If the first thing he did was challenge the DBX quality control, then he is the right man for the job.

What timeline are you comparing the DBX production line to, if you think it should have been faster?

@c2645sg – You also wrote:

“Tell us what other options you think Stroll had instead of the Merc deal please?”

OK, I give in if you really don’t understand my previous response.

It isn’t a question of what other options Stroll had.

It is what other options did Mercedes have?

There really is no need for Mercedes to do any deal that isn’t of benefit to them is there?

If Mercedes thought AML was a basket case, they could stand by and let it fail and then buy it.

But they didn’t take this approach, did they?

Their stake in AML, and the sharing of tech, is a sign of Mercedes backing Stroll, his team and his plans.

Or do you really think Mercedes had no option but to sign a deal with AML?

Cheers, Paul. :)

@c2645sg – By H1, I assume you mean H2?

As there were no DBX sales in H1 2020.

How can you define anything as a flop during a global pandemic?

@TonyGuers has the right idea, the market will be looking for ‘green shoots’.

If the China ‘gangbusters’ comment translates into H2 sales or 2021 orders, it will still be good.

Cheers,

Paul. :)

The last time I replied, the whole thread was deleted, so let’s try again...

@c2645sg – How many times have you asked about DBX sales in Q3?

How many times have different people replied with the answer?

The DBX production line was not up and running fully in Q3.

And DBX delays associated with improving Quality Control should be seen as a good thing.

The Q4 sales numbers may not be great either, but I am hoping the order book will be.

You also seem to be confusing ‘build to order’ with ‘demonstrators’ to get orders.

AML will build some DBXs with a ‘random’ spec and that is what potential customers see.

The sales teams then talk potential customers through the options:
- Colour
- Trim
- Wheels
- Etc.

That is the ‘build to order’ customer base that Stroll/AML are targeting.

If someone is happy to buy an ex-demonstrator that isn’t ‘their’ spec, that isn’t a bad thing is it?

Cheers,

Paul. :)

@robglfc wrote “The culture on here is as it is because of de ramping short nonsense.”

Not quite…

The culture on here (recently) is the over-reaction by some posters to other posters.

I’ll give you just two examples of your own reactions…

Just before a thread was pulled you said if only 1 car was sold in Q4, AML was still a great investment.

When, clearly, selling just one car would be a problem, so your post was ramping nonsense.

In particular, as selling 1 car would undermine Stroll’s public comments about China ‘gangbusters’.

Similarly, when someone asked if Aston Martin were making F1 cars you went ‘off the deep end’.

You said everyone should know they are, then posted multiple times about Ann Summers and sex toys.

When the correct answer was actually:
“No, AML are not making F1 cars.
AML is the title sponsor of the former Racing Point team and it is that team that will make AM F1 cars.”

By all means, challenge posts if you want, but please try to remain as ‘chilled’ as you claim to be.

Just a thought.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@TinyPie – Thanks for reposting this.

As the other thread with that link was one of many to be deleted yesterday/today.

Like many others, I am looking for some ‘green shoots’ in the Annual Report.

I am not expecting miracles, as 2020 was a brutal year in every sense of the word.

But I do believe that Stroll follows an ‘under promise, over deliver’ approach, which is good.

I also made another small top up of my own AML holding yesterday.
(Guided by when spare funds become available, not any Mystic Meg reading of the markets.)

Good luck, Paul. :)

Thanks for all the replies, it is interesting to read how others approach this.

Cheers, Paul. :)

I’ve always liked the way some people on here refer to their AML shares as “Golden Tickets”.

As I’m old enough to remember watching ‘Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory’ on TV as a child.

Anyway, a post by @Englanger made me consider what counts as a Golden Ticket?
(Compared to a Silver, or Bronze, ticket.)

In my limited amateur investing world, this week’s £22 SP would be Gold for a chat down the pub.
(Especially with interest rates on my risk-free savings being less than 1%.)

“I once doubled my money in less than six months buying and selling shares in Aston Martin.”

Which would sound like a ‘boiler room’ scam, if my 2020 AML shares hadn’t done that at £22.

Unfortunately, Lawrence Stroll himself set the ‘Gold Standard’ for the AML SP very high indeed.

His ‘The Times’ interview (07/11/20) AML SP prediction was “£6, £7 or £9 over the next five years”
(Which equates to £120, £140 or £180 post consolidation.)

Now, if this SP was 100% guaranteed, then the obvious thing to do is simply sit and wait.

But if Covid-19 and 2020/21 has taught us anything, it is that nothing is guaranteed.

Similarly, the Reddit/GameStop Shorting/Feeding Frenzy shows anything can happen very quickly.

Reality Check - I don’t own enough shares for even the highest ‘Stroll SP’ to provide early retirement.

So, my question is how do you decide when the SP is high enough?

Is it simply based on what you will achieve by selling compared to your purchase price?

Or is it a ‘Fear Of Missing Out’ if you sell early and then watch the SP go through the roof?
(Or vice versa, selling too late and missing out on the peak.)

For me:

Bronze - £13.90 – Would leave me with a solid 10% return on investment.
(But I would be gutted that I didn’t sell in the £20 range when I had the chance.)

Silver - £25.30 – Would my double total investment, a great result really.
(Due to the higher prices that I paid for some ‘top up’ AML shares in 2021).

Gold – I honestly can’t decide what would be worse:
- Not taking Silver when I had the chance, then ending up with Bronze, while waiting for Gold.
- Or taking my Gold standard and then watching the AML SP reach Stroll’s Gold standard.

Which is why @Englanger’s post really struck a cord.
“Do you want to make 100% take your stake out and have free Aston shares for ever more.”

This seems to provide the best of both worlds:
- Your original investment back, so no financial risk associated with that.
- An opportunity to see what happens from the comfort of a ‘free’ LTH position.

I know there is a wide range of investment strategies on here.

So, I’m not looking to get into a debate about Day Trading vs LTH, etc.

Remember it is the weekend, so this is “just for fun” and I’ll be back on Sunday night.

Apologies, this has turned into a very LONG post.

Cheers, Paul. :)

@Englanger – I like this idea, but can’t follow the maths.

“Do you want to make 100% take your stake out and have free Aston shares for ever more. With you taking your stake out of Aston will you invest in another company and do the same and build a portfolio for free. 10x 100% trades from 2k is million quid, buy reinvesting, it's that what you want?”

10 x 100% trades from £2k is something like:
- First 9 trades leaving you with your original £2k stake = £18k
- The last trade doubling your original £2k stake = £4k
- Plus, the SP rises on your 9 x ‘free’ trades while you work your way to the tenth.
But those rises would need to be spectacular to turn £22k into £1m.

What am I missing?

Cheers, Paul. :)