Every dog has it's day25 Mar 2021 11:07
The IC article,
I was going to sell today, now I'm buying small time to average down a bit.
I was impressed by the new institutional investors in BUR.
Burford plays to a new audience
The litigation finance specialist's US listing could affect future dividend payments
From Aim to the New York Stock Exchange: Burford Capital's (BUR) ascent through the equity league tables is the sort of journey bourse bosses like to crow about. Yet with its share price still trapped below the level it first sank to after a damaging 2019 report from short seller Muddy Waters, the litigation finance house is less of a poster child for growth than a warning about market exuberance and volatility.
Naturally, Burford debates the fairness of that characterisation. So too, it would appear, does a fresh intake of backers: since October’s US listing, there has been considerable churn at the top of the shareholder register. After long-term holder Invesco, stateside investors Conifer Management LLC, CI, Coltrane Asset Management and the Texas teachers’ pension fund now occupy the top five institutional investor slots.
Mithaq Capital, a Saudi investment firm backed by the Al Rajhi family, is now the largest investor with 10.5 per cent of the business.
Headline figures for Burford’s first set of full results since its secondary float were well flagged a month ago. “Capital provision-direct assets” – that is, legal claims funded directly by Burford – generated $325m (£237m) in cash proceeds in 2020, a rise of 55 per cent year-on-year. Indirect assets, managed on behalf of fund clients, generated $173m in cash.
Despite apparently limitless options to re-deploy those proceeds – group-wide assets increased to $4.5bn in the year, $2.9bn of which is attributable to Burford’s balance sheet – a record period for cash realisation failed to translate into an increase in operating profits, which dipped 6 per cent.
Management put this down to the cost of subsidising third-party funds today in the hopes of netting future performance fees. Burford therefore absorbs all operating costs, but books around half of each dollar deployed.
After Covid-19 forced a suspension in the dividend this time last year, a final 12.5¢-a-share pay-out is welcome news for long-term holders, though anyone hoping for a formal distribution policy may be disappointed. Management expects to maintain the dividend at its current level, but demand for cash elsewhere in the business and the tax inefficiency of pay-outs for US investors means this will be reviewed “from time to time”.
Highlighting this demand for working capital was a separate announcement of a fresh private market bond offering, to raise $350m for general corporate purposes and on unspecified terms.
Consensus forecasts are for earnings of 138¢ per share this year, 97¢ in 2022, and $2.36 in 2023, when several analysts predict a windfall from the Petersen case. We remain neutral: hold.