Member Info for Alvernikov

Here's a little bit of light reading:

https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/TLS

No one really knows when the Petroleum Fund will run dry - but it's clear that 2035, predicted by some analysts, is almost certainly in the realms of wishful thinking.

Timor-Leste stands on the cusp of a fiscal precipice - of that there is no doubt.

We can only hope that sometime soon torpidity will give way to common sense.

GLA

SNDA

According to the World Bank, oil and gas have accounted for more than 90 percent of GDP and 70 percent of government revenue in Timor-Leste. The country’s GDP is lower than it was in 2016 due to recessions in 2017, 2018, and 2020.

The share of agriculture in Timor-Leste's gross domestic product in 2021 was 8.64 percent - their best efforts to grow this sector cannot come close to replacing the revenues previously derived from oil. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the number of tourists in Timor-Leste has been increasing since 2000, but it still accounts for only 4.5% of GDP. Other than agriculture and tourism there's really nothing much else. Manufacturing adds up to virtually nothing.

Real GDP will fall by 16.9% in 2023, as oil and gas output is finally wound down at the Bayu-Undan offshore field. Real GDP is forecast to decline by 6% in 2024,

Timor-Leste’s non-oil economy only accounts for 21% of GDP - with growth at only 3% per annum for 2022 and 2023 and with a similar outlook for 2024.

Some estimates have the Petroleum Fund running dry as early as 2030.

Timor Leste will be in deep, deep trouble if they don't start producing gas from Greater Sunrise and Chuditch in the next 4 to 5 years.

"The halt in oil and gas production in 2023 highlights Timor-Leste's overreliance on hydrocarbon exports, spotlighting the urgency for economic diversification. The challenges in attracting substantial foreign direct investment compound the situation, prompting the Government to exceed its withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, which, if current trends hold, may be depleted by 2034."

The reality is that the Petroleum Fund should be being maintained and safe-guarded for contingency purposes, not being bled dry to support a failing economy. There's been talk of diversifying the TL economy for the last two decades, but little progress has been made - in fact, agricultural production has diminished to the point of minimal returns. Even if they did attract substantial foreign investment to develop their agriculture sector it would take many years for the return on investment to have any meaningful impact on GDP growth. The only resource that can rescue TL's ailing economy in an acceptable timeframe is gas. So, come on Gusmão...get it done!!

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/08/24/great-expectations-hang-on-new-government-to-steer-timor-leste-economy

I shifted a large part of my BOIL holding into UPL last year - which turned out to be a good move, having made a significant profit.

I'm now piling back into BOIL - bought a few more million today.

Both BOIL and UPL look like they'll blow at some point in the next 9 months or so.

It's looking increasingly likely that TL will strike a deal with China. Apologies if anyone has posted this link already:

https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/what-did-timor-leste-sign-a-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-with-china/

GLA :)

I'd rather read passiton's posts 10,000 times than those of the halfwits, the feckless, the indolent, those clearly having suffered the demise of an exenterated cranium, and whose mother was a hamster and whose father smelled of elder berries!

I've top-sliced successfully over the last year to the point that 80% of my holdings are free shares. I've doubled my money on BOIL. I'm nevertheless a LTH and will buy more BOIL shares next week if we haven't already hit the jackpot.

We are closer and closer to positive news - even if it is, as usual, later than expected.

Get all those empty bags out from under the stairs - you're going to need them!

GLA :)

Probably just uncrossing trades during the auction period, but to repeat a recent post...and keep our hopes alive:

"Another reason for a price monitoring extension could be the release of news that has a sudden and significant impact on the price that investors are willing to pay for the company’s shares."

GLA

Another billion traded today. An MC of £38 million is looking ridiculous. If all the stars align when the CPR hits the desk I might be in need of CPR!

I'm going to be very surprised when the news finally breaks if it is not ENI buying out Chuditch. Given that FLNG is their declared approach of choice (over investing in onshore liquefaction facilities) in Mozambique, it seems most likely that ENIs interest and investment in Block P is all tied in with Chuditch. They can convert former transportation vessels to FLNG at a cost of $3 billion or less - far cheaper than an onshore facility and it also knocks years off bringing the gas resources to commercialisation (which will suit TLs requirement for its own energy supplies). As soon as the CPR hits the desk I could see things happening very quickly.

GLA :)

It's surely not just a coincidence that ENI put in a bid for, and were awarded, Block P - right next to Chuditch. ENI have all the experience necessary to make a Chuditch FLNG project work for Timor Leste. Let's get it done!!

"After a stuttering start, FLNG is hot again. Eni set the benchmark with Coral in Mozambique, delivering first gas on time and on budget, and making the large stalled onshore LNG plans for Area 1 and 4 look unreasonably risky by comparison. If commissioning goes well, we expect to see Eni and ExxonMobil abandon their onshore proposals in favor of multiple FLNG vessels in the country. "

"Following its acquisition of the Tango FLNG, Italian major Eni has signed a deal with Wison Heavy Industry for the construction and installation of another floating LNG unit [in Congo]."

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/what_can_gas_and_lng_expect_in_2023-20-jan-2023-171811-article/
https://www.rigzone.com/news/eni_orders_second_flng_for_congo-26-dec-2022-171517-article/

You'll soon be able to afford the room we shared again ;) :)

"Another reason for a price monitoring extenion could be the release of news that has a sudden and significant impact on the price that investors are willing to pay for the company’s shares."

Come on, BOIL - let's have the news!!

Went to a wife-swapping party at Interactive Investor this morning...came away with 5m BOIL shares - bargain

And no more fighting over the control when the footie is on - double bargain

;) :)

Knock, knock.
"Who's there?"
"Major."
"Major who...actually, who cares! Come in! Come in!"

This has to be seen as a giant step in the right direction.

This u-turn from Woodside should bring the investors onboard now.

I can see this story gaining traction over the next few days - just topped up whilst the SP is in the doldrums.

GLA

UPL RNS 31 August 2022

"For UK Licence P2478, the 3D seismic reprocessing project and geochemical studies have been received and re-interpretation commenced on schedule in July. The revised evaluation of the prospectivity of the licence, including the Dunrobin prospect, is anticipated to be delivered during Q4 2022.

Technical Studies

3D seismic reprocessing and geochemical studies covering Dunrobin and other prospects within Licence P2478 in the Inner Moray Firth have been delivered with a significant uplift in data quality believed to have been achieved.

The interpretation of the revised data began on schedule in July 2022. An updated prospectivity evaluation is anticipated to be available during Q4 2022, which will provide sufficient time for the Joint Venture partners to consider options, potentially including engaging with prospective drilling and funding partners, ahead of the July 2023 'drill or drop' licence decision."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/UPL/dunrobin-update-x60ftw8cdqupdwe.html

Handbrake off after tomorrow ;)

U - upward
T - trajectory

It's a no brainer - buy yesterday! Tomorrow may already be too late ;)

If there was anything out there that would enable us to "come across anything that suggests when a firm decision is due to be made on this" I think the SP would already be going into orbit :)