Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
"Gusmao’s success or failure to form a new governing coalition will have significant implications for Timor-Leste’s diplomatic and strategic orientation. Critical to the country’s future is the status of its $19 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Petroleum Fund, which underwrites more than 90 percent of Timor-Leste’s budget and is the country’s key economic driver. Despite diminishing oil revenues, the government continues to spend in excess of sustainable Petroleum Fund withdrawals by more than double, creating the prospect that the fund will be depleted. Without developing other areas of the economy or significantly cutting government spending—which would have wider economic implications—the country will likely face a critical economic reckoning at some point in the mid-2030s, based on its budgets over the past 14 years.
As of today, however, there is still no sign of any other sector of Timor-Leste’s economy making headway, much less looking like it could replace oil-based revenue. Tourism and agriculture are touted as alternative sources of income, but tourism remains depressed—not least due to high costs and limited infrastructure—while agricultural production is insufficient to meet national needs, much less the needs of potential trading partners.
As a potential economic alternative, Gusmao’s plan for the future is to develop the Tasi Mane liquefied natural gas facility, which is fed by natural gas reserves in the Timor Sea’s Greater Sunrise fields. His 2012 government had already earmarked more than $2 billion for the project, but this somewhat grandiose plan was quietly mothballed in 2018, following a lack of international interest in developing the Greater Sunrise fields if it was, as Gusmao insisted, to be associated with an onshore refinery, rather than a pipeline to Australia for processing there.
The lack of commercial interest reflects the lack of domestic capacity in Timor-Leste. Establishment costs are estimated at $18 billion against moderate returns and the high logistical and technical risks associated with the project. As a result, within a week of his election, Horta called on the Australian government to financially support the development of Tasi Mane as part of strengthening bilateral relations. It would also be a way for Horta to deliver to his political benefactor, Gusmao.
If Australia refuses to help develop the project, Horta says Timor-Leste would look to Beijing to do so, building on an already expanding economic relationship with China. China’s Exim Bank, however, has for now balked at funding the project for the same reasons that foreign energy companies have shied away from it. But that could change, as China’s economic and strategic interests are closely linked. In the context of shifting regional power relations, Timor-Leste is seen as a plum strategic prize."
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30582/complex-political-maneuvering-following-elections-for-timor-leste-president
Sorry...this is a year old. I need to put my reading glasses on!!
Soon we'll be straining our sides, HFB, carrying the multi-bags :)
It won't surprise me if something kicks off before RBD's AGM on 29 June.
It looks like there may be quite a bit of upside potential in CASP over the next few months as well - perhaps another one to look out for.
Fill the kettle and keep your ears open for the whistle - it's coming to the BOIL
They are talking the talk more and more...now it's time to walk the walk
https://www.timorleste-summit.com/about
3 British oil and gas analysts predict that RBD will grow 94% over the next year - that could be excellent news for Dunrobin
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reabold-resources-plc-lon-rbd-105933511.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIjc87fCPlP9A6-AvxsUygeM4g597Ty3XOpnF3FiPf9_33tLeRLZloPvcj6qGykF9P3rN4eKrycClJ7emTeSMA3V5iqJqtFkU_4mrLtyJSZ_e-Vx7F_tH4udlZ8xS5nSQh2FpVbpmXSPn4M86k_WWUopyLPZuzTwsECECUR4ad1E
"Timor-Leste’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Adaljiza Magno informed that Timor-Leste and China will soon sign cooperation agreements in four fields including aviation, agriculture, health, and media."
"Minister Magno also mentioned the possibility of establishing an agreement in other sectors but it is still in the discussion stage and will be informed to the public after the agreement is completed."
http://www.tatoli.tl/en/2022/05/30/timor-leste-and-china-will-sign-a-cooperation-agreement-in-four-areas/
It's time the Timorese government took a pragmatic approach and agreed to a floating LNG facility for Greater Sunrise/Chuditch - they could have revenue from these assets in less than two years. They would then have all the finances they need to lay a pipeline and build an onshore processing facility. In the meantime, they could construct a regasification plant for the LNG coming from the FLNG - providing local employment and also a solution to the island's energy requirements (replacing the outdated diesel-generated power plants).
It really should be a no brainer!
https://news.writecaliber.com/oil-gas-gulf-chuditch-gas-discovery-stirs-excitement-offshore-east-timor/
This is why so many think it would be too dangerous to construct a pipeline across a 3.3km deep trench to an onshore processing facility. An FLNG facility would be by far the safest and most expedient solution.
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/2022/05/27/61-magnitude-quake-strikes-off-timor-leste-tsunami-advisory-issued
"Can Timor-Leste sufficiently diversify its economy and create enough jobs for its young and growing population?
If Timor-Leste is to answer this in the affirmative, it needs to buy more time for adequate diversification and growth. To do so, Greater Sunrise – and Tasi Mane, for that matter – need to deliver on promised economic benefits. If this doesn’t happen, the country will face an economic reckoning, likely in the late 2020’s or early 2030’s, that shakes its foundations."
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/timor-leste-building-towards-next-20-years
We know, of course, that Baron and Reabold are not operators.
The point I'm making is that Dunrobin is a more attractive proposition for a JV or buyout than many other licences in the North Sea. It's one of the "few remaining undrilled UK North Sea targets of the order of 100 MMBOE" and the shallow rotated fault blocks and comparatively small drill costs make it of prime interest.
Chuditch may be months away, but value could be added to the Dunrobin asset anytime soon - especially if there's anything in the rumours of an LBO.
GLA :)
RBD will complete their acquisition of licences, including Dunrobin, from Corallian by the end of August.
Dunrobin is looking more and more like a very attractive proposition for a JV or a buyout.
§ Estimated prospective gross Pmean* recoverable resource of 173 Mbbls of oil
§ Scoping Pmean economics suggest a gross NPV10 of £1,350 million, (£432 million net to Baron Oil, £432 million net to Upland Resources, and £486 million net to Reabold) based on, inter alia, medium gravity oil and a US$60/bbl oil price
§ Initial scoping indicative of low drilling cost at £7 million gross
£432 million net to Baron Oil - what will that do to the SP?!! Hold onto your hats and enjoy the ride! :)
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/983041/reabold-resources-sees-exciting-opportunities-across-new-north-sea-assets-983041.html
The difference, it seems to me HFB, is that the Timorese government's backs are very much against the wall, and those likely to fund the Timor Leste LNG projects, whichever way they go, are very much aware of that and will hold out until Timorese government are willing to compromise.
Timor Leste has survived this far on the back of the revenues from Bayu-Undan, which has enabled them to build up the sovereign petroleum fund from $205 million in 2005 to the current balance of $19 billion. Following the depletion of Bayu-Undan next year, that fund will also fast deplete. Despite all the talk and the bluster and the ideological wishful thinking, the island has not been able to diversify its sources of revenue sufficiently well to establish any kind of sustainable development that would exclude revenues from oil/gas production; indeed, the blue economy financing roadmap that is often talked about is entirely dependent on foreign funding and the use of the petroleum fund - the very fund that is needed to develop the CCS and liquefaction facilities to exploit Greater Sunrise, which are expected to cost in excess of $20 billion.
In short, the future economy of Timor Leste is entirely dependent on foreign funding and outsourced expertise. The Timorese government does not hold all the shots, even though they like to think that they do. The time is coming soon when they will have no choice but to compromise - either in terms of the concept or the make-up of the PSC. As has been stated many times already, something has to give.
Watch this space, indeed. There's a real determination this time around to make it happen.
https://www.odwyerpr.com/story/public/17945/2022-05-19/fti-consulting-inks-pact-with-east-timors-oil-company.html
"It handles outreach to government officials in the US, Australia and elsewhere to raise awareness around the economic and strategic values of the Greater Sunrise field development and undersea pipeline, with a focus on overcoming obstacles with respect to the legal framework that, left unaddressed, could threaten the whole enterprise, according to a memorandum to FTI’s agreement with NuSource LLC."
I looked through Draglover's posts - not a single one since November 2020 that contains anything useful, or factual, or that demonstrates even half a second of research.
“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.”
? Maurice Switzer
Optimism with a healthy dose of realism, HFB - both feet on the ground until the end, whatever that might be :)
200 words in The Washington Times doesn't quite equate to a saviour - but hope springs eternal :)
Rodney: "So, that's about 3 million each."
Del boy: "Well, we've had worse days!"
Christoffmcd, I'd gladly give 10% of my 3.2 million :)
Not dead in the water. Once all the testosterone has stopped flying around I believe there will be compromise. The TL government cannot afford for their small nation to become even poorer than it is now. If they don't have a new PSC and funding in place by the end of this year they will be in SERIOUS trouble.