Member Info for Alvernikov

As soon as you stated "SundaGas actually mentioned in the report re Chuditch , which would suggest
the locals and our now 100% owned SG , are on the same page re development
by FPSO" the SP shot up to .142p

lol

Yes, HFB - that's what I was alluding to by saying that BOIL have both feet in the door with their partnership with Timor Gap and ANPM. BOIL have a path to monetisation with Chuditch due to TL's need to meet their own energy requirements - as you say, to convert their obsolete and costly power stations by 2025...which isn't that far off in terms of the time needed to construct the necessary plant to facilitate the conversion. We've seen the SP touch .12p in recent months based on sentiment and MM manipulation - but there's a groundswell now (LNG bubbling up to the surface?) which is pointing to significant news in the coming days. Hold onto your hat!

It's not new news - but there comes a point when the statement bears more significance. One way or another, I believe we'll see a positive outworking of that statement in the near future.

Baron Oil have both feet in the door by partnering with Timor Gap and ANPM. The pressure on Timor Leste to commit to a program of LNG production is escalating day by day. It really is beginning to look as though Chuditch could play out more quickly than Greater Sunrise - and significantly for BOIL shareholders, before Dunrobin.

Don't lose sight of yesterday's statement, significantly that "We have... researched the routes to commercialisation."

Christmas may not entirely come early next Wednesday, but you can be sure that the announcement of an update and webinar on 26 October has been carefully timed and for a very good reason. Watch this space....

============================================================
Jon Ford, Technical Director of Baron Oil, commented (18 October 2022):

“This extension to the PSC timeline comes alongside significant progress being made on the 3D PSDM seismic interpretation. We have materially enhanced the subsurface image of the Chuditch-1 discovery and neighbouring analogous prospects and leads; deepened our understanding of the geology and the petroleum and reservoir systems; reviewed engineering considerations; and researched the routes to commercialisation. Currently we are working to integrate these strands to produce what we believe will be a compelling assessment of the asset and allow us to plan our next steps. We look forward to presenting the preliminary results of this work to shareholders shortly.”
=====================================================================================

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/greater-sunrise-can-timor-leste-play-china-card

Perhaps they'll come knocking on the door for Dunrobin too...

Hopefully, RBD will do more to promote Dunrobin

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RBD/spa-for-sale-of-corallian-to-shell-for-16332-million-tq6foibxob1u11g.html

I filtered out the stock investor who didn't have the cerebral wherewithal to invent a pseudonym weeks ago - and what I read on this BB now is all the better for it.

The only slight concern is that there might be another 198 of these anencephalics lurking in the shadows...

BP/Shell/Petronas...none of the majors will be shelling out for FLNG/FPSO's in the Timor Sea - not unless the Timorese government backtracks on its long-held position, which is very unlikely to happen.

An FLNG/FPSO in the Timor Sea would be more likely a lease agreement - like Golar's.

Of course Baron wouldn't - and couldn't - foot the bill. Woodside or ENI could though, for example.

Nothing will transform this company in Q4 unless a clear path to monetisation evolves for either Chuditch or Dunrobin. I'm not among the doom and gloom guys - just being realistic. I have every belief that BOIL will become a multi-bagger - just not yet.

Positive Q4 news is already factored into the SP IMHO. Though I'll be happy to stand corrected if it suddenly flies above 0.12 in the next few weeks.

Keep topping up and hold...possibly for the next 9 or 10 months. Christmas may come early next year :)

People talk about an FLNG option as if it's a quick fix for producing LNG in the Timor Sea. It's not. Only three FLNG vessels are now operational: Petronas’ PFLNG Satu, Golar LNG’s Cameroon (BP) FLNG and Shell’s Prelude. Prelude and Satu took 6 years from start of construction to being operational. They are not a cheap alternative to an onshore facility either - both cost around $10 billion. That said, they are now converting LNG tankers into FLNG liquefaction facilities at a cost of around $2 billion and with a lead time of about 18 months. If you've been thinking that an FLNG is the answer to you making your fortune within the next few months you are very much mistaken!

Remind me to stop hanging the new cloakroom door and to read the article fully next time ;)

Lol

Not sure if this was posted before...

"Exploration and production company Baron Oil has executed a shareholders' agreement with SundaGas Resources, governing the operation of SundaGas Timor-Leste Sahul, in which Baron now has a 33.33% shareholding, it announced on Wednesday."

https://www.investments.bankofscotland.co.uk/markets-and-insights/market-news/article/?id=7439093&type=bsm

If terms are agreed by November for a new production sharing agreement it will be certain at that point which way the pipe is going to run - TL will have their way and it will run to TL shores. The project will be agreed in principle at least. Then it's down to funding, and OZ will surely step up to the plate.

Looking good for BOIL holders 2 months from now...

"He [Horta] urged Australia to back a pipeline to East Timor, saying it could help turn his country into the next Dubai or Singapore, bringing the country $50 billion in revenue and $50 billion in development benefits.

“We have a neighbor, Australia, that can make this miracle happen,” Ramos-Horta said."

"Ramos-Horta said he was confident Sunrise would be developed, possibly in tandem with the Abadi gas field off Indonesia.

“I’m also confident that in the end we will reach agreement with Woodside and the other joint venture members,” he said."

https://www.rappler.com/business/east-timor-prods-australia-long-stalled-greater-sunrise-gas-project/

Apologies if this was shared before:

"The East Timor and Australian governments are in talks to finalise a production sharing contract with the Sunrise joint venture partners, aiming for terms to be settled by November.

Woodside Chief Executive Meg O'Neill and state-owned Timor Gap President Antonio de Sousa told Reuters this week they were optimistic that Wong's visit to East Timor would be the catalyst for concluding a production sharing contract."

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/timorese-push-case-pipe-greater-sunrise-gas-east-timor-2022-09-01/

Yes, HFB - piping the gas to Darwin is a much safer option...but we know it will never happen.

Timor Leste itself is formed on a major fault line. Volcanic activity is commonplace in that region. Add to that the 3,300 metre trench off the southern shores of TL and you've got yourself a host of technical issues to overcome and potential disasters to recover from. But Horta will have his day and a pipe will be laid and a liquefaction plant built.

An FLNG could be up and running within 18 months. With liquefaction conducted on board the natural gas is reduced in volume by a factor of 600:1 - they could easily ship it to shore and have a regasification plant to process the gas that is needed domestically. Exported gas can be shipped directly from the FLNG. And an FLNG can be moved around the Timor Sea to exploit each asset in turn. The Timor Sea can get quite rough, so deploying an FLNG is not without technical issues - but it seems to me that it ought to be a viable option.

I took a decision to move half of my investment in BOIL into RBD - which has paid off nicely already. The Victory sale will give a nice boost to RBD, not to mention West Newton with the new government stance. It's a win win situation when Dunrobin takes off - a good return for both BOIL and RBD.

Patience, as always - but there's light at the end of the tunnel after a very long wait.

GLA

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/UPL/in-brief-upland-resources-expects-positive-data-from-dunrobin-40xuiz0dhbffo2h.html

A pipeline to the shores of TL is not without its challenges!

http://cnt.rm.ingv.it/en/event/32691661

The stars are aligning with the government's energy plan adding impetus and possibility to the continued development of onshore gas projects and the North Sea.

RBD up another 14% this morning following the RNS. Good news for RBD is good news for BOIL too:

"Response to Governmental Energy Plan

Reabold, the AIM quoted investing company which focuses on investments in upstream oil and gas projects, notes the announcement by the UK Government of the cancellation of the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing onshore in the UK.

Reabold welcomes this change in policy and notes that it could have a materially beneficial effect on the Company's UK onshore business, including the potential to exploit additional resources within its existing licence interests and other potential opportunities.

The Company awaits further details following the announcement and will provide updates to the market as appropriate."

RBD up nearly 14% this morning.

Q4 is looking more and more promising for both Dunrobin and Chuditch.

Christmas may come early this year.

GLA

This surely knocks China out of the water, so to speak, in terms of any thoughts they may have harboured [sorry, couldn't resist ;)] of occupying a port on the southern shores of TL.

We just need the Aussies to put $20 billion into the LNG Partnership fund now.

Throw off the bowlines...