US Covid Numbers....26 Oct 2020 16:38
OK. This is my first ever post, but have watched this board for many months.
I have skin in the game on NVCT.
Nothing ever goes up in a striaght line, and some pull back was inevitable. Short term movements in any share price are usually mostly sentiment driven and herd behavoir (fear and greed); longer term in share prices reflect momentum or market disruption (capitial looking for the best risk/return opportunities). Seeing daily increases of 3%, 5%, 7%, 10% are naturally encouraging/addictive they are unsustainable day after day. Today I believe is a real 'test' day for where the market see's the future cash flows - I think the term is 'resistance levels', and key phycologiclal levels such as 1000p . For most analyists this a REALLY difficult stock to value on fundamentals.
The trend in COVID numbers (postive test, ICU beds, mortality) are now all going in the wrong direction as we enter the colder, winter month. IMHO the USA are lilkey to see a meaningful resurgence over the next 2 months, probably exacerbated by Thanksgiving gatherings at the end of Nov. Trumps senor advisor today admitted that COVID cannot be contained, which has proimoted a 2.5% dip on DOW this afternoon. The markets are probably starting to digest the REAL likelihood of a second recessionary dip over the next 3/6m as western Europe and USA try to save lives and keep the economy going.
My gut feelings for NVCT have not changed from last Friday afternoon when we hit 1200p. The market may not value this company at £1bn this week, or next, but the prospects and demand for NVCT products is immense and the revenue and profits are set to be transormative for this business.
Don't stress about vaccines being the game changer; (read this if you are concerned, https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2020/10/22/dud-covid-vaccines-are-no-silver-bullet/)
We wont erradicate COVID-19 for many, many years. Its now endemic, and we wont vaccinate this into extiction, just as we haven't erradciated FLU.
Watch the trends in numbers in UK, USA, Italy, France, Spain, Russia , Germany over the next month and keep reminding yourself of that NHS contract.
There are some excellent posters here. c
Chapeau to the filebin ShaunP.
GLA, DYOR.