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Totally agree re: AI, data centres and carbon capture. Still baffled by Bosch. Opens up opportunities for our other manufacturing partners who may be more cost efficient and therefore able to drive sales and royalties. In for the long haul but the fundamentals will come good.

Bloom energy in the USA has just broken profitability barrier and SP back to 2021 levels. This is similar tech to Ceres power. No reason Ceres either our current manufacturing partners shouldn’t do the same.

Https://renews.biz/99340/rwe-totalenergies-sign-hydrogen-deal/

Électrolyser deal for 200mw already inked but this gives details of timeframe and off takers. Not sure if this is news as such or just confirmation of what had already been announced.

3rd tranche of 100mw is going to sunfire with alkaline electrolysis. ITM/pem should be demonstrably more efficient.

Dennis has achieved the landmarks set out. Company was reeling when he took over. Agree re:sp and I don’t expect major sp re-rate until clear path to profitability. That has been laid out clearly for the first time. 300-400MW annual deliveries depending on the Neptune mix.

We aren’t there yet but a few more orders of Neptunes and I think the path will be clear. DS seems to have predicted the market well. The big GW orders haven’t yet materialised but the mid size around 20 MW or small multiples of this seem to be trickling through.

I think there is time to wait for filling boots. I have confidence though. Bottom line is if the company is a goer it should get back to £4 without too much difficulty.

Is it mandatory to sell? If we hold do we retain shares in the event of TFG selling on?

Https://renewablesnow.com/news/storegga-files-plans-for-hydrogen-project-at-scottish-whisky-makers-1271877/

This is quite niche but potentially a nice project for ITM. Scotch going zero carbon could add to the heritage story.

Apologies tennents. You go on in last paragraph precisely to say a licence deal is likely. My thoughts precisely.

Tennents.

Why do you say ceres will never be manufactured in the USA? It is the last region of the world not covered by either SOFC or SOEC deal (or both)?

I have no knowledge here but would be keen to learn your thinking on this.

In the great tradition of DYOR I found this about 2/3 way through Q&A from yesterday. The answer is 400mw per year but lower if Neptune V represents larger proportion of revenue. Next year has a high Neptune proportionally in the mix (from slide presentation/webcast). The following year with some of the bigger contracts that are not Neptune the reverse is true.

FIDs accelerating particularly at the 10-20mw scale which is ideal for Neptune so potentially that mix in 2026 will shift.

Did someone mention the break even point in terms of sales? In another thread they mentioned 500mw sales per year which may still be some way off. I potentially had around 200mw in my head but that was pure speculation.

Ignore my last post. 500mw per year apparently needed for profit. HAR2 may help us on the road. I suspect 2026 at the earliest to meet this.

I estimate 200mw delivered per year will see ITM in profit. Some on this site have cited 100mw but that may be overly optimistic. The pipeline of confirmed orders doesn’t see us to profit IMO.

A steady trickle of 10-20mw orders though will get us there. The Neptune announcement just before Xmas and the announcement of collaboration on 10mw units was v positive. The big one is the 500mw FID that is awaited. If that pulls through we’re are in the pink.

Clearly the market is driven almost entirely by sentiment. An RNS that confirms what we know and puts pretty robust and positive figures on it results in 1 day swing from +14% to -3%.

What we as investors, not gamblers should be looking at the big picture.

It may have escaped peoples notice but Whorley in USA signed a FEED for 100 MW as part of a GW collaboration with Topsoe using SOEC technology for green ammonia production. This is fertile ground for Ceres and partners. The waste heat can be utilised and achieve efficiencies into 90%+. Ceres has expanded a 1 MW partnership with Shell to 10MW in India with a view to 100MW plus demonstration. Get the GW scale and this alone is transformational for ceres power financials. Potential for this to be replicated multiple times with Taiwanese or Indian partners.

Patience needed but this stock will prove its worth. ATM SP driven entirely by sentiment and good news is quickly swallowed up by overall negative sentiment to the sector. Opportunities here for those who can read the runes and be ahead of the curve. Links below to the Whorley FEED desk and Ceres/Shell partnership.

As far as I am aware only 3 serious contenders world wide for SOFC and SOEC. Ceres, Topsoe and Bloom. Bloom was riding high SP recently despite a fundamentally worse financial position than Ceres.

https://www.h2-view.com/story/worley-wins-feed-contract-for-300-tonne-per-day-green-ammonia-facility-in-texas/2120412.article/

https://renewablesnow.com/news/ceres-contracted-by-shell-to-design-10-mw-soec-module-859812/

Weichai are already the biggest shareholder 20%. Last large investment was at £4.50 alongside Bosch.

I would be surprised if Bosch would tolerate a Chinese buy out. They have invested 2bn euros in H2 tech, a good chunk of which is ceres tech.

Weichai Power Co., Ltd. Owns 20% of the company's shares

Robert Bosch Stiftung GmbH: Owns 17.45% of the company's shares

Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC: Owns 4.663% of the company's shares

Clearstream Banking SA: Owns 4.653% of the company's shares

BNPP Asset Management Holding: Owns about 3.0% of the company's shares

Other major shareholders include: Global X Hydrogen ETF, Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF, Invesco Global Clean Energy ETF, Amplify Advanced Battery Metals and Materials ETF, and Global X CleanTech ETF.

I’m struggling to see the ceres connection here. Power they say is direct grid connections rather than decentralised SOFC.

Certainly I’m optimistic about Ceres and data centre power supply but I don’t see the connection here.

Bullish forecasts. It will be interesting to see revenue growth and if royalties starting to feature significantly.

I don’t see major movement until there is clear evidence of a revenue growth towards profitability. Thereafter these numbers are not unreasonable.

Last big fundraising was at £7 per share or thereabouts from memory. That was during period of international positive sentiment around hydrogen.

I do think this is the SP floor. Even last years new deals haven’t shifted SP sustainably from this level.

Headwinds in USA but ceres doesn’t have partnerships there. Pretty much the rest of the world covered with deals so not expecting new deal signings.

Royalties key here.

Https://gasturbineworld.com/capital-costs/

The surprisingly informative magazine “gas turbine world” has some fairly specific pricing.

400MW operating at 58% efficiency has cost of around $450 million. So less expensive than the SOFC. If you follow link above you’ll see weichai 100mw demonstration sofc achieving 62% efficiency basic but 92% with heat recovery.

Incredible efficiency. Dramatically reducing CO2 emissions and likely to be a significant part of the future. AI data centres are an ideal way to utilise sofc. I’m not really sure about the SK cancellation reasoning. I guess may be cost. The cost of global warming likely many magnitudes bigger. LA wildfires estimated $250 billion and not out yet. Most costly wildfires follow the hottest year on record. One could infer causation or conclude that this is coincidence. Hmmmm

At the risk of sounding evangelical most people are invested here because they take a broader view of costs, including societal and governmental of global warming.

The wildfires in LA are set to cost $250 billion. One year, one state, one set of wildfires. This alone would pay for 1/3 of the Inflation Reduction Act. It is fair to say that for green hydrogen to scale it requires governmental action. That is exactly what appears to be happening around the globe though a bit slower than we expected and a little bit stuttering. Germany is ploughing ahead and with HAR2 set to be announced soon the UK should be following closely behind. We are also invested here because of confidence in the technology for ITM. 200MW per year should see break even. 1GW per year and we will be at SP above 2021. This is achievable if governments stay strong on their commitments. Not without risk but I would say the larger risks of not acting on climate change and green H2 are magnitudes bigger in financial terms and immeasurably bigger in human terms. Have a listen to David Attenburgh’s new year message.

This US government paper gives a broader perspective of costs and includes some analysis of the costs in the US of continuing on the current trajectory.

I for one will be holding tight and topping up on this dip.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-inflation-reduction-acts-benefits-and-costs

As of Jan 2025 Weichai are the largest shareholder with 20% followed by Bosch on 17%.

I would probably say that is skin in the game though admittedly maybe just one or two digits for companies as large as these.

Next largest shareholder is only around 3 %. Weichai and Bosch are still the big players here with Ceres. Let’s see what the mood music is in a few weeks.

Apologies for typo should read 1/4 of the world population.

Hi Ten. Like the summary but you have left out one of our major partners and 1/4 of th ex works population- Weichai in China. While they didn’t expand agreement as expected with consequent SO fall they are still a major share holder and hold license for SOFC.

To be fair there may be no imminent plans to start manufacturing but this could change very quickly. A certain high level UK delegation are currently en route to China. The mood music could change quickly. I wouldn’t bet on this and the current SP certainly doesn’t reflect any positivity there but there is the potential for an upside swing. China are ploughing ahead with H2 and the Ceres tech is possibly the most efficient in the world (when heat re- captured). Mood music can change quicker than fundamentals.