Member Info for allthatguff

Hi extrader, I have left you a message on the KRPZ board. Also everyone else welcome to join in and please do.

Hi extrader, emailed company and broker last week. No joy. They did not even react to up to 200% sp spike on the day!

Spread is horrendous I agree.

It all ties up, indeed. Fingers crossed.

I know most of you would probably not want another RoC mining investment !! But KROPZ looks really interesting, imo. My notes will give you a leg up should you care at all. The current mine easily supports the sp as is, never mind adding another mine.

GL all.

(Part2)

>>BACKGROUND
Kropz [KRPZ] has two African rock phosphate projects

* Hinda, Republic of Congo 100% owned by Kropz (via Comico SA 90%, and RoC government has 10% share of project)
* Elandsfontein, South Africa 74% owned by Kropz (other 24% by ARC Fund)

Kropz has a very low free float of shares in publics hands (< 11% of the shares publically owned. ARC Fund 83.2% and
Kropz International Limited 5.9%). So the share price can move extremly quickly on small trades.

>> Hinda project highlights

** "Hinda, in the Republic of Congo (RoC), is believed to be one of the world’s largest undeveloped sedimentary-hosted phosphate reserves
Shallow, it has a JORC-compliant mineral resource base totalling more than 650Mt at a grade of 10% P2O5 and a total reserve of 404.9Mt at a grade of 11% P2O5."

**"Hinda is just 37km from the second-largest city, Pointe Noire" (Republic of Congo NOT the Democratic republic of Congo.. BIG difference).

**"Some US$47 million has been invested in the project to date, on drilling (929 holes), test work and studies."

**"The project is permitted, with terms of reference accepted for modifications to the environmental social impact assessment."

**"A 2015 definitive feasibility study (DFS), updated in 2021 by Hatch Africa, indicates a phased approach to development, starting with 1Mtpa, increasing to 2Mtpa, with of life of mine of >25 years. "

**"The phased approach studied will initially deliver 1 million tonnes per annum (“Mtpa”) phosphate rock concentrate (“Product”) through the existing Port of Pointe-Noire (Phase 1), expanding to 2Mtpa Product through a new port facility at Pointe Indienne (Phase 2);"
** "A mine plan was run, scheduling the immediate commencement of Phase 2 production, i.e. 2Mtpa Product. This opportunity led to a conservative increase in ungeared NPV (at 11.1% discount rate) to US$543 million with an IRR of 20.96%. The estimated capital cost for the immediate commencement of Phase 2 is US$618 million"

>> Elandsfontein highlights

** the Elandsfontein mine has some issues over the years, been in commissioning phase ramp up since 2021. The output is now improving and hopefully the last quality issues will be ironed out. A fair amount of debt(!!) has been accumulated in this process. From recent 25 April RNS, there were sales of 43,886 tonnes of phosphate concentrate from Kropz Elandsfontein during April 2023. The Company expects to report this continuation of sales and expects to update the market quarterly going forwards as sales continue.
>>It is my own expectation that if they get the output up to 1 million tonnes per annum, this should pay down the debt pretty quickly.

SOURCES USED

https://www.kropz.com/about-us/who-we-are
https://www.kropz.com/investors/presentations
https://www.kropz.com/investors/rns-announcements

(part A)

>>A RECENT NEWS ARTICLE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE 2MTPA HINDA PROJECT OWNED BY KROPZ [KRPZ] COULD SOON GO AHEAD.THIS SHARE COULD ROCKET IF CONFIRM ED??<<

>>DISCLAIMER: all views expressed are my own and may not be correct . DYOR<<

>> The online article:
https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/investissement-600-millions-de-dollars-pour-la-realisation-du-projet-phosphate-au-congo

[GOOGLE translated]

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

""A delegation of investors, led by the South African businessman, Patrice Motsepe, was received in audience on April 25, in Pointe-Noire, by President Denis Sassou N'Guesso. The two parties discussed the evolution of the phosphate investment project to be carried out in Congo.

“We came to give more information on the work we are doing in the framework of the project we have in Congo. The idea is to inform the president about the quality of Congolese phosphate and its development. We are going to bring 600 million dollars in terms of investment for this phosphate project. Also, we will come back very quickly because we want this pilot to progress quickly so that we move at the right pace in this one”, said Patrice Motsepe, after the audience with President Denis Sassou N'Guesso.

According to the South African businessman, the key ambition is to keep the bet so that the project is realized as quickly as possible.“We will very quickly come back to report to the president and the minister as the project evolves. Our presence in Pointe-Noire is also an opportunity for us to see the magnificent project that has been launched between the Congolese government and Eni to know that our project will buy part of the energy electricity,” he added . .

A South African businessman, Patrice Motsepe is the founder of the company African Rainbow Minerals and is its executive chairman."

No Opinion

Indirect evidence- Mineral Port - KROPZToday 13:14
I have been looking at something for the last few days that now leads me to believe the mineral port may soon go ahead and be announced??
It is fairly complicated to explain, I will do a subsequent follow up related post that may be of interest to some as a potential investment idea, KROPZ (But DYOR).
Basically a recent article has seemingly let the cat of the bag which indicates the 2 mtpa Hinda Phosphate project near Pointe Noire could soon go ahead, ie be financed. A past DFS indicated that phase 2, ie 2mpta, required a new mineral port near Pointe Indienne (ie mineral exportport). So if it is going to proceed it will need an export port of some shape! It seems these companies know what is going on and are planning to use the new port?

(Part2)

>>BACKGROUND
Kropz [KRPZ] has two African rock phosphate projects

* Hinda, Republic of Congo 100% owned by Kropz (via Comico SA 90%, and RoC government has 10% share of project)
* Elandsfontein, South Africa 74% owned by Kropz (other 24% by ARC Fund)

Kropz has a very low free float of shares in publics hands (< 11% of the shares publically owned. ARC Fund 83.2% and
Kropz International Limited 5.9%). So the share price can move extremly quickly on small trades.

>> Hinda project highlights

** "Hinda, in the Republic of Congo (RoC), is believed to be one of the world’s largest undeveloped sedimentary-hosted phosphate reserves
Shallow, it has a JORC-compliant mineral resource base totalling more than 650Mt at a grade of 10% P2O5 and a total reserve of 404.9Mt at a grade of 11% P2O5."

**"Hinda is just 37km from the second-largest city, Pointe Noire" (Republic of Congo NOT the Democratic republic of Congo.. BIG difference).

**"Some US$47 million has been invested in the project to date, on drilling (929 holes), test work and studies."

**"The project is permitted, with terms of reference accepted for modifications to the environmental social impact assessment."

**"A 2015 definitive feasibility study (DFS), updated in 2021 by Hatch Africa, indicates a phased approach to development, starting with 1Mtpa, increasing to 2Mtpa, with of life of mine of >25 years. "

**"The phased approach studied will initially deliver 1 million tonnes per annum (“Mtpa”) phosphate rock concentrate (“Product”) through the existing Port of Pointe-Noire (Phase 1), expanding to 2Mtpa Product through a new port facility at Pointe Indienne (Phase 2);"
** "A mine plan was run, scheduling the immediate commencement of Phase 2 production, i.e. 2Mtpa Product. This opportunity led to a conservative increase in ungeared NPV (at 11.1% discount rate) to US$543 million with an IRR of 20.96%. The estimated capital cost for the immediate commencement of Phase 2 is US$618 million"

>> Elandsfontein highlights

** the Elandsfontein mine has some issues over the years, been in commissioning phase ramp up since 2021. The output is now improving and hopefully the last quality issues will be ironed out. A fair amount of debt(!!) has been accumulated in this process. From recent 25 April RNS, there were sales of 43,886 tonnes of phosphate concentrate from Kropz Elandsfontein during April 2023. The Company expects to report this continuation of sales and expects to update the market quarterly going forwards as sales continue.
>>It is my own expectation that if they get the output up to 1 million tonnes per annum, this should pay down the debt pretty quickly.

SOURCES USED

https://www.kropz.com/about-us/who-we-are
https://www.kropz.com/investors/presentations
https://www.kropz.com/investors/rns-announcements

(part A)

>>A RECENT NEWS ARTICLE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE 2MTPA HINDA PROJECT OWNED BY KROPZ [KRPZ] COULD SOON GO AHEAD.THIS SHARE COULD ROCKET IF CONFIRM ED??<<

>>DISCLAIMER: all views expressed are my own and may not be correct . DYOR<<

>> The online article:
https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/investissement-600-millions-de-dollars-pour-la-realisation-du-projet-phosphate-au-congo

[GOOGLE translated]

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

""A delegation of investors, led by the South African businessman, Patrice Motsepe, was received in audience on April 25, in Pointe-Noire, by President Denis Sassou N'Guesso. The two parties discussed the evolution of the phosphate investment project to be carried out in Congo.

“We came to give more information on the work we are doing in the framework of the project we have in Congo. The idea is to inform the president about the quality of Congolese phosphate and its development. We are going to bring 600 million dollars in terms of investment for this phosphate project. Also, we will come back very quickly because we want this pilot to progress quickly so that we move at the right pace in this one”, said Patrice Motsepe, after the audience with President Denis Sassou N'Guesso.

According to the South African businessman, the key ambition is to keep the bet so that the project is realized as quickly as possible.“We will very quickly come back to report to the president and the minister as the project evolves. Our presence in Pointe-Noire is also an opportunity for us to see the magnificent project that has been launched between the Congolese government and Eni to know that our project will buy part of the energy electricity,” he added . .

A South African businessman, Patrice Motsepe is the founder of the company African Rainbow Minerals and is its executive chairman."

I have been looking at something for the last few days that now leads me to believe the mineral port may soon go ahead and be announced??
It is fairly complicated to explain, I will do a subsequent follow up related post that may be of interest to some as a potential investment idea, KROPZ (But DYOR).
Basically a recent article has seemingly let the cat of the bag which indicates the 2 mtpa Hinda Phosphate project near Pointe Noire could soon go ahead, ie be financed. A past DFS indicated that phase 2, ie 2mpta, required a new mineral port near Pointe Indienne (ie mineral exportport). So if it is going to proceed it will need an export port of some shape! It seems these companies know what is going on and are planning to use the new port?

Everybody craves high grade iron ore..

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/biggest-relief-of-my-career-andrew-forrest-breathes-easy-as-iron-bridge-takes-off-20230501-p5d4oy.html

"
'Biggest relief of my career’: Andrew Forrest breathes easy as Iron Bridge takes off
By Peter Milne
May 1, 2023 — 6.50pm
The first high-grade iron ore from Fortescue Metals Group’s $US3.9 billion ($5.9 billion) Iron Bridge project has hit Port Hedland after 20 years of planning, testing, cost overruns and a management shake-up."

"The next challenge for Fortescue is ramping up production to full capacity of 22 million tonnes a year."
"

Don't worry, I remember you Shaun. Not a smiley face emoji.
Do you actually believe the twaddle you have just written. People read this board and remember what has been said :-)

Yup, another good bit of circumstancial evidence with potential. BUT will have to see how that squares up with Arise IIP. Only 10 months ago Arise was the front runner for mineral port? Rather have too many candidates than too few lol. like buses this is.

This is fun!

You mean this bit ..

Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso
@ChristelSassou
·
Apr 26
I took part in the hearing granted by HE
@SassouCG
to our partners from
@ADPortsGroup
, this April 26 in Pointe-Noire. We discussed the realization of various projects which aim to make the port of Pointe-Noire a sub-regional hub and a hub port."

You mean this bit 10 months ago?

"On June 24, I led a delegation to Pointe-Noire made up of members of my cabinet as well as representatives of the company Arise IIP with whom we visited the special economic zone of Pointe-Noire. This visit is part of the implementation of the actions retained in the memorandum of understanding between Arise IIP and the Congolese government, with a view to the construction of two ore ports in our country, including one in Pointe-Noire and one another in Ouesso."

I have found indirect evidence that seems to indicate a mineral port or some form of mineral export infrastructure is soon likely to go ahead near/at Pointe Noire. I will post more info on this later tomorrow.

Thanks alwayshoping...the linking of Baowu Steel (who were alo sniffing round the ROC) and Saudi Arabia is highly interesting.

Msn shows this still unchanged, Driving1

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/stockdetails/ownership/fi-aofzc7?fromMaestro=true

May be more up to date info if this fund publishes its investments online?

Ps. When I say 'more cheaply' it is relative to the asset. I would still call a £2bn 'sale' (total valuation) a total fire sale.

I appreciate your point of view extrader regarding country risk. Yes there will be a discount for that but that it is why it is probably safer for state entities China and Saudi Arabia to do business here. I think that is what Glencore is holding out for. The commercial western minerals companies (Vale etc) probably would want a huge bigger discount for the country risk compared to state entities . Let's pray the Saudi theory holds true! Unless China does a come back? Otherwise this may go more cheaply for stakeholder buyin if non state entities are taken onboard?

Also, I have enjoyed your posts extrader over many years here. Always a voice of reason and logic!

Otherwise my brain will rumble on through the night lol

1. If anyone has different back of the envelope calcs to that done by MM, would love to see them. Discussion is great here.
2. Perception reality gap. I am sure if this was currently trading at say a modest 120p ps, people would not balk as much if this was suggested at at a 4bn plus ticket price (or whatever that translates into as a stake transaction).
3. In my mind economic discounting is deeply flawed as all longer future value gets ground to nearly zero very quickly. Is only a tool. This flaw is especially true if dealing with a national entity ,Ma'aden, ie Saudi Arabia, where a long term stable high quality resource actually has more value exactly for the reason of national economic security. Ie not subject to whims of normal company short term ism.