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Think all your points may be relevant to how the markets currently see MOG. I was disappointed that the company said it doen't expect licensing of Ombrina Mare till Q3 of this year. However, the SP has held up well, again, and I notice that Yahoo Finance (summarising the targets of 3 companies) have raised their target from 22p to 39p for this year! They clearly believe MOG's statement re OM license to be accurate. Time will tell and I'll make sure I'm well topped up by the end of June!

So you went for excitement, then, Mike as opposed to plodding with VOD! Hope this goes really well for you. Good tick up over last two days back towards IMICs initial bid price. I don't think the SP will hit 115 until there is a second offer as AFF could always say no thanks. As Vinny points out, 150p is being banded around, but the board will have a strong view about a minimum bid price and 150 is conservative given the true value of AFFs assets. Sticking with my prediction of 165, but then again I predicted Doncaster Rovers would be in the Premier League by this year.....

Never say never! The big buys will be II's adding to their positions and my guess is the small sells will be PI's panicking. The share could drift lower on no news but I hope 90p will not be breached. With only 120 million or so shares purchased, this company is a very attractive proposition right now. Even at £1.50 per share, AFF could be picked up for £180 million which is an absolute steal given its proven and prospective resources. To me, it's a question of when a deal will be struck, not if, and we already have a floor price of 115p, 20p up from here. With other bidders involved, probably a mining major, that floor price will rise as they won't want to hang around. Think we may hear news by Friday, unless AFF play it cagey and want to go back to IMIC to give them a chance to raise their bid. Time to pretend to have nerves of steel! GLA

Spot on with your summary, zooropa. At least we know now that mining license is due in Q3 now and the action should take off from there. Not much news due until then, though, except outcome of dispute with LGO. Hard hat time ahead. GLA

Hi Mike. There has been speculation over AFF bidders before, but the company is now involved directly in take-over bidding negotiations as opposed to rumour etc The share price has moved strongly since November on the strength of performance and AFF is strongly cash-generative. That would lead me to say that the share price would fall to a degree if the board rejects all offers, but remember that some analysts value AFF at £2-£2.35 currently, way above where it is now. Also, it is not unusual for company's SP to rise if bids are rejected. All conjecture of course and my opinion. Although I would prefer a short-term spike so PI's see a decent profit, I am relaxed about holding for medium term if needs be. Hope that helps. Good luck.

I suspect the SP has drifted down because agreeing a bid price for a take-over can take some time. I guess right now AFF are waiting for their 'initial' bidder to make an offer that will be higher than IMIC's 115-140p as we know this is quite a low valuation. I would expect AFF to take the second bid, say 120-150p back to IMIC after 13th Jan. We can then expect IMIC to back out or put in further offer, depending on their own financial backing. If they improve their bid, this could be a second bid price or a final offer. I would expect some sort of deadline to be attached to a bid at this stage. Then AFF return to bidder A with the improved share price target for further negotiation. Bidder A makes a second, take-it-or-leave it offer and AFF then mull their options for a few days. If they feel a fair price has not been achieved, they may decide not to sell. Option A. If they feel a good price is on the table, they may sell to the highest bidder. Ootion B. However, it is not unknown for a third/fourth bidder to come in at this stage to make their own bid (your 'bidding war') I'm floating these potential outcomes because unless the companies involved have agreed a time-line for completion, this process could take some time. Hopefully, AFF will issue an RNS before the 13th, outlining the situation with deadlines. My money is on a bid of 165-175p, but what do I know? GLA

Thanks for your thoughts-appreciated. It's significant that Amati will continue to hold ACHL as it's lead company this year. Probably worth me dipping my toe in the orange! Cheers.

I agree with your interpretation of the proportion of Malta MOG would lose to Leni should we lose the disputeie 2.5%. Legal costs could be significant too depending on how drawn out the legal case is. So many pros and cons here, any of which could have a significant impact for MOG. Malta, of course, may be worth millions, or may yield nothing and we won't know this until next year. Another issue for me is that MOG are generating revenue every day through Guendalina so to some extent, costs of the dispute shouldn't hurt us too much. My bottom line is that MOG is closing in on approval for drilling 40 million barrels of all with a gross 'street' value of around $4 billion. This is the game changer and is entirely divorced from the dispute with LGO. This should enable us to put the costs of any outcome of the spat into perspective. The timing of the proceedings is another issue. If the case is decided quite soon ie before Ombrina Mare license is granted, then we can expect the SP to slump, albeit temporarily. Personally, I would use the opportunity to top up. If OM license news comes first, and I think it will, MOG's Sp will spike and put us into the 20's and the Leni dispute will IMO have less of an impact. Ultimately, I believe MOG will be sold, especially if Malta reveals the black gold, and I intend to see this company all the way through production and/or take-over. Even regardless of Malta, MOG will be worth a lot of money to the Genel's of this world. In that context, the LGO dispute is a sneeze, not the flu although it is not the smartest leadership shown by the board. Apologies for the epistle.... have a great weekend all.

I'm looking to invest in ACHL and note that the company is top of the TB Amati Smaller Company Fund and is a strong tip for growth by Paul Jourdon CEO of Amati. In researching ACHL, I notice that Yahoo Finance has target share prices ranging form £3 to £5.40! I know we should be wary of targets to an extent, but from the current SP of 30p, this seems incredible. I'd value any of your opinions. Regards

Thanks for the info. Clearly MOG is digging in its stance as is LGO. My concern here is that the only winners will be lawyers. Where would we be without them? This seems to have moved beyond the possibility of an out-of-court settlement which is a shame to me. Let's hope the MOG board is being given top advice and its confidence is well-founded. I know some posters feel this issue is not a major one for either company, but it doesn't exactly inspire investor confidence. Cheers.

We know a bid of 115-140p is on the table and negotiations re this bid can be resumed from 13.1.13 if AFF so chooses. To me this should force the hand of the other company actively involved in bidding and I would think negotiations are progressing with this company as we speak ie AFF is in the driving seat. However, the board will want to secure the best possible deal given AFF's potential so this may drag out proceedings. I hope not as I'm sure we can all cite situations where bidders have walked away from potetial take-over deals because they've been 'messed around.' Time for the board to really earn its money and agree a fair deal for all. GLA

Thanks for your posts-appreciate your input. Whilst I care about our planet as much as the next guy, I'm sure most people in Italy will put an economic turnaround ahead of green issues. With the four points in your post all competing against MOG at present, that will change in time to our advantage and then we can see what MOG can do without strings attached! GLA

Good stuff, guys. Hopefully,we can look back this time next year and smile at the current SP. Lots to come in 2013 and let's hope the Italian senators have a wild new year and give a huge thumbs up to the development of Ombrina Mare! Enjoy your evening.

I think the granting of the license will have a more sgnificant impact on the SP, certainly, but the Genel deal, as I suggested earlier, carries its own weight. I read somewhere that the Maltese government would warmly encourage mining interest, but we'll see. Sods Law re the timing of your email to the MOG board. Did that myself once to a biotech company, with the same result! Send them another at the end of Jan, Zooropa, and maybe we'll hear OM license has been approved the next day.... Merry Christmas to all Mogies.

Pleased that the board delivered on their promise to seal the Genel dear before year end and MOG looks to have negotiated a very favourable deal here. Genel clearly sees Malta as highly prospective and both companies seem keen to get drilling next year. All eyes now will turn to the Italian Senate to ratify Parliament's decision to grant MOG exemption from its drilling ban, which should be a formality. Ombrina Mare is not priced into the current SP so we can expect a decent rise when the news is confirmed. MOG will then be actively mining gas and oil and looking to exploit Malta and I feel the three active elements of MOG's portfolio will transform the company as an investment opportunity. I have said before that our new chair is a 'sell specialist' and I find the new relationship with Genel interesting. We can expect a bid for MOG at some stage and to me, it's more about when than if. Interesting that Geds included MOG in his top 6 companies. It's certainly high on mine and I will pile in again as/when the Ombrina Mare license is granted. 2012 has seen MOG turned around; 2013 should see it fly... GLA

Think your 6.5p prediction is optimistic. The markets need hard evidence that the company can fund the mining operation with minimum share diution. Without this, the SP will go nowhere. If FDI can replicate the funding model used by the Diamondcorp board, then this company will go places. Lots to do, though, from this point to successfully mining 1 million carats a year....

Agree with much of Silverwolf's take on the current situation and I guess one key issue is your entry point. I'm in at 8p, so still showing a profit, but those with a higher average may decide to cut their losses in case the share price falls some more, which of course it could. Although the wait for significant news is painful, none of the fundamental reasons for investing in MOG have changed. It is raising revenue every day through its gas field, it is sitting on 40 million barrels of proven oil reserves and has exciting exploration licences in a proven oil rich area. My approach is to sit with MOG unless the Ombrina Mare license is not rubber stamped and this is unlikely now imo.partly because the Italian economy needs all the help it can get. If/when the go ahead is given for OM, I will pile into this company as it will transform its fortunes overnight. I also feel MOG is a strong take-over prospect and we now have a board chairman who has already overseen the sale of three other companies. Investing in any AIM company is a bare-knuckle ride and MOG is proving no different. Hope that helps. Regards

Sorry to hear you've lost confidence in MOG.... but entirely understand. The delays in securing licensing are really frustrating, but when we're relying on politicians, our patience will be sorely tested. I'm sure the CEO and the rest of the board must share our frustration. Good luck.

Sorry.For 50% read 35%. Never try maths on a Friday night....

I share your concerns re FDI. The SP is now down over 50% in a month. I suspect this is largely due to the board raising expectations re quality stones going to tender and then delivering no news. Firestone has developed a reputation for missing deadlines and I see no change in this culture despite the new board. Whilst the power-line is a key issue along with funding arrangements to run Liquobong, it is the management of FDI that continues to be my biggest concern. It would be great if we heard news next week, but 'imminent' is a word this company doesn't know the meaning of! Good weekend all.