Member Info for alligin

Whatever the focus of the police investigation, it may take weeks/ months to resolve and even if no charges are brought, FDI's reputation will take a hammering. My biggest concern now is that just at the time when the company is trying to secure a funding package to develop Liqubong, this event hits the fan. Which organisation would loan millions to a company whilst it is under investigation by the authorities? I wonder if allegations of smuggling in part centre around the rare blue diamonds that rather mysteriously weren't tendered at the end of last year at a time when the market for rare stones was as strong as ever?! Hopefully, the board will make a clear statement very soon to make its position clear. Time to see what the new directors and chair are really made of.

To add to the debate about FDI. The previous board burned millions of pounds on exploration of several of their assets, producing almost no revenue during this time. The new board have acted quickly to stop the bleeding and to produce revenue from Liquobong, a world class mine. This scaling down made real sense. Right now, most board members are working to secure funding to take Liquobong towards full production stage. If they achieve the same success as Diamondcorp, they will secure funding with minimal dilution of current shares- this is their challenge. The board also has the option of selling other assets to raise capital as it owns several high quality kimberlite mines. All of this will take time. However, if you are considering investing in FDI, the current entry price is spot on. I'm invested at 19p and there will be many other pi's around the same figure or even higher. The attraction of FDI in the short term is that news of tender sales and/or funding should see the SP motor north, albeit for a short while, so you could sell on spikes and buy back in when the SP drops if you like that approach. If the board does sort out quality financial backing, then the medium to long term prospects for FDI are bright. Their target of 1 million carats a year, if reached, would put the SP into 50p territory in my opinion, but that may be three or four years off. The other option for FDI is of course bidding interest from larger companies and with the supply/demand ratio outlook positive for diamonds, this is always possible. I will invest further in FDI if the board delivers a quality funding package that goes some way to de-risking this investment. I will bide my time until this is secured. Good luck with your investing.

I'll have whatever you're having.....

Wouldn't consider myself as a knowledgeable poster, Mike, but for what it's worth I pretty much echo Mysts view. Generally, markets react very positively to news of a JV, but as a take-over is on the table, there may be an initial negative response if a jv is agreed. In the medium term, this is AFF's best option to me, especially if a big player comes on board to lend support at all levels, even agree an off-take agreement. I suppose your dilemma is based around your time-frame to some extent. I think there is a 50-50 chance of making a fast buck here but I'm equally attracted by medium term gains with this company.Good luck

the bidders will want to emphasise AFF's current market value and will have an idea of what they would need to spend to mine the assets. The AFF board will be negotiating around the company's additional potential value and more often than not, a compromise is found if a bid is to succeed. The most crucial known factor is the 115-150p bid IMIC has already made. This, as always, is an initial offer and no company accepts the first deal tabled, especially when there is other interest involved. I think the next thing we hear will be an increased bid, either by IMIC, or by a new bidder. If it is approaching what the board feels is fair value, they may accept provisionally, or hold out for a further bid. To me , this would take us to the 150-175p range. My bottom line is even if AFF accept a bid in the low range, say 125p per share, this is 35p above today's share price, a real result. Finally, if the board does not accept any offers, I agree with some posters here that a minimal outcome will be a joint venture with a big player. I feel it's a win-win situation and am prepared to tuck these shares away if needs be. GLA

Powerfully put Myst. Any chance of you joining the negotiations on our behalf?!

A story to make you smirk... On Monday of this week, having researched CICR over the weekend, I was poised to buy a few shares. TD Waterhouse would only offer me 5.6p when the SP was around 4.3p so I thought no way. Returning later, I find the SP is well up but the offer price from TDW is still way above the SP. Again I think, no way. This is bound to retrace after a day of frantic interest, I think; I'll pounce in on a retrace. Early retrace Tues/Wed a.m. and I'm sure when I get home later, the SP will be down and I can buy, buy, buy. Laptop switched on, buy finger ready, and the SP has shot up again.. Still waiting for a retrace, Thurs/Fri but this little gem has continued to fly. A question for all holders. Would you like me to A; keep waiting for a retrace so the SP of your shares keeps going north or B buy my shares on Monday at which point the SP will retrace enabling you to top up or C submit my nomination for Donkey of the week award? All answers gratefully received...

Thanks for your earlier post re involvement of Investec in take-over discussions. All options here still on the table and it is good to see a decent recovery in the SP following the panic over Jindal's 'withdrwal' from the process. Have a good weekend all and let's see what next week brings.

Just got home and grimaced a tadge when I saw AFF's Sp. What a day, apparently, all on the strength of a speculative rumour about Jindal's involvement. This baby does move quickly either way doesn't it? The AIM market especially reacts far too strongly to rumour either way and even if Jindal does pull out, I agree with other posters- that is to be expected at this stage. Classic case of a situation driven by fear. As Mike has said, the good number of block buys at the end of today shows this has been oversold and I will be adding to my holding first thing tomorrow. Certainly feel there will be a bounce at some stage if not tomorrow. The plot thickens. GLA

Agreed. You into BZM mogo?

My guess Mike is that AFF would go it alone, but of course, with current predatoery interest from other miners, a jv deal is always possible. My hunch about the company moving forward independently is based on two factors. First, it is already fully funded for mining into next year. Second, the Cameroon government is shouldering a good deal of the costs of developing a raillink from Nkout to the port. It has also pledged to give iron ore companies other means of support (tax concessions? etc) as it strives to raise employment to develop its economy. At the end of the day, I think it will come down to what the majority of board members want from the deal. Jam today, or a huge stcky-toffeee pudding tomorrow....

I suspect there is a wide range of valuations of AFF (119p-235p) because only one of the company's mines (Nkout) has been comprehensively tested and the gross value of this mine alone has been valued at $4.2 billion. Given that testing has revealed that ore quality in the second asset is even higher than Nkout and has a huge strike range, some brokers clearly feel that £2+ is still on the conservative side. The main reason for the intense interest in AFF now, is that, given it's potential and the fact that it is already 'cash rich', the bidding companies know they are acquiring a world class group of assets at Asdaprice. With only 120 million shares to buy, the bid price even at 150p per share makes AFF's price peanuts to any big miner. It looks like 90p is a strong support for the SP but with the amount of hard-earned money you are investing here, a 5p drop here and there is very significant and the bottom line is you make the call. For what it's worth, investing £300k in small-cap companies itself means you have b...s of steel! Whatever you decide, good luck to you and if two of your three companies deliver you, can I apply for the job as your chauffeur? From my own perspective, I don't give a fig re timing bid/no bid as this company has short, medium and long term upside. Cheers.

The most significant thing re the Director buys is that they did so ahead of the court wrangle with LGO. Either they are confident of winning or they are prepared to risk some of their salary on long odds!

The initial drift in the SP is no surprise under the circumstances to me as one possibility was that AFF would announce a second offer following negotiations with the second interested party. I notice the small drop in SP has shaken some PI's out of the tree who see the RNS as rather negative. The RNS confirms that there are up to 4 companies in discussions with AFF and it is good to hear that but it may well mean that negotiations may take longer. It also doesn't mean that AFF have stopped talking to the 'large miner' and now the 13th January deadline has passed, information flow could be freed up. The next RNS should contain specific details of one/two bids and it is this that will impact more significantly on the SP. As mogo says, the board are reminding us that if they feel bids don't give shareholders good value, they will not agree to a take-over. With billions of £'s worth of assets in the ground, I am sure they will have a clear market value figure. GLA

Not expecting an RNS on Monday re last week's negotiations. It's possible that AFF board will be taking a provisional bid from the 'big miner' back to IMIC to give them an opportunity to raise their bid to a more realistic level, but the discussions may have several twists and turns yet. Good to see the SP holding up without news and ultimately, as MOGO says, AFF is a real growth story at an early stage, take-over or not. West Africa is such a good geographic postion for exporting in all directions and this will be a key consideration for the bidding companies. Chinese companies have much to gain from securing assets in Africa in the medium to long term and I'd be very surprised if a Chinese/Asian miner is not invloved. Could be an interesting week, but news more likely end of month to me. GLA.

I really appreciate your detailed response. It is particularly generous of you to share your research, information you have gathered over time, and are prepared to share with other PI's- thank you. The investment case here is compelling and I will proceed, as planned, with my investment. Enjoy your weekend and I look forward to tracking the development of CICR with you over the months and years ahead.

I'm really interested in investing in CICR. It ticks lots of boxes and looks poised to advance following its relisting. Among the plus factors to me is the business model, the potential growth and its rapid move from loss (2011) to profit. I also like the fact that right now, it is sailing relatively under the radar. I'm sure lots of posters will ask you this, but what is your call re the risks of investing in CICR versus the clear potential upside? Hope you don't mind me asking, and of course, I'll proceed with investing based on my own research, but I'd appreciate your views. Cheers.

Absolutely. Let's hope they talk business and give church a miss....Would have thought they'd take into their resumed talks a substatntive offer. Either way, I think we should have an update by the end of next week, unless their sworn to secrecy during the negotiation process. GLA

Just an update in this morning's Penny Share Pro, Taffer. Faraday highlighted AFF's strong performance, reiterated its buy stance (they recommended AFF to subscribers last year) and then commented that with at least two companies looking to table bids for the company, a bidding war could result. Cheers.

The SP is holding well now. Faraday Research just published an update on AFF and have commented that a bidding war is now likely. Hopefully, we can enjoy watching the fight from the side-lines!