RE: Rollercoaster Ride16 Nov 2022 18:24
OK, you didn't say it, but the implication of saying that you thought all the bad news was already priced in is surely saying that you didn't expect more bad news.
The oil industry commentators that I follow suggest that the vessels are choosing to stay at sea, giving them the flexibility to divert to the port of the highest bidder. Solar energy can be discounted until next summer, so gas fills the generation void. Wind power in winter is highly variable, in fact the ten day wind lull that occurred last winter was essentially the trigger for the gas crisis, Europe was screaming for supplies at the same time as the far east, especially China. So, if we get a similar weather system parked over Scandinavia this year, with much reduced flows on Nordstream, then the demand for LNG could become extreme, making those vessel owners very rich, and us Europeans very cold, or poor, probably both.
You sarcastically say that winter arrives every year, I contest that the unusual circumstances surrounding gas supply could make this one memorable.
I don't read articles to inform me about production difficulties, I speak to folks in the industry. You are right, smaller producers are affected badly. However, the very largest are also hugely impacted, many of their plants are also closed. Couple that with a sharp decline in consumer spending in the sector due to high mortgage and inflation costs, and I fail to see how that can't further impact prospects. But that's just me observing the picture. pessimist, or realist. I'm certainly not an optimist at this point, for the reasons above.