Member Info for Alfacomp

use the all Vanadium chemistry according to this report by Lorenzo Grande - https://www.idtechex.com/de/research-report/redox-flow-batteries-2018-2028-markets-trends-applications/605

I think the real number is actually more like 80% and will be more like 90% by the end of 2020 if you count according to the size of energy projects installed.

DBB - looks like a bot, we've seen them like this on numerous occasions.

Pat - indeed same here as I was busy and missed it yesterday

sammy - thanks yep I'm a bit late on the analysis today as I spent all day yesterday doing VAT reporting. Hopefully some of that refund can go into buying BMN shares...

One thing I did notice was the rather obvious attempt to test for a bottom just before 1pm - sells of 50K, 30K, 25K, 25K and 50K which failed to reduce the SP followed then by two buys of around 125K each. They lost money on those trades of course but may well have concluded that it will not fall any further. Hence the rather obvious 100K buys today starting the SP back on its upwards trajectory.

Mikinaman, Vanadium flow batteries are already being touted as useful ways of providing nuclear reactors with the flexibility that they have pretty much always lacked - see my tweet from the International flow battery forum last summer:- https://twitter.com/BMNperspective/status/1149255853347868672

This would be a 200MW/ 1GWh VRFB paired with a 5GW nuclear reactor at TianWan in Jiangsu province.

As for small modular nuclear reactors I don't get what has changed in nuclear physics in the last 30 years to suddenly make the cost scaling of nukes fall at low sizes when in the past nuclear designers have always been pushing for larger and larger reactors to bring the cost per unit of energy down.

It is not as if there has been a lack of interest in small nuclear reactors - the military have long used them and provided a well funded path to development but despite this we don't see small nuclear reactors in each town of 10,000 people - so there must be something else going on here that stopped the rollout of such systems in the past. Wailing on about the greens stopping these things only works for so long - quite simply I don't believe that the economics adds up. It didn't in the past and I see no reason that it will today.

Having had over 60 years to establish itself I find it remarkable that the nuclear industry pretty much anywhere in the world has still not yet got to grips with the key issue of long term radioactive waste disposal. I remember hearing Baron Marshall of Goring, then head of the CEGB, speak 35 years ago about how the issue of radioactive waste disposal could easily be solved if everyone buried a small bit in their gardens. Thank god that particularly nutty idea never happened or we'd have had half a dozen dirty bombs in London by now.

Bella - your characterisation of the mining analysts present as being "get it out of the ground guys not sustainable new tech chappies" is exactly on the button. As ninjamagic will confirm I had a significant disagreement about the veracity of human induced climate change with exactly one of these sorts of people whilst visiting the mine last year. I shall not name any names but I understand that the person involved is no longer working in the sector, and a good thing to.

well it is more up to date than the DoE system so unless you wish to volunteer to curate a new database of VRFB projects gkb then it is the most up to date reference we all have.

A more up to date site is perhaps the Vanitec VRFB map which shows 113 VRFB installations

https://willigan.digital/pr/bold-editorial/vanitec/v3/

https://twitter.com/BMNperspective/status/1149255853347868672

Be aware that it is also somewhat out of date. I have had to notify them of multimegawatt VRFB projects that they didn't know about, including the 800 MWh project in Dalian. I note that they also do not currently list either of the Jiangsu 1GWh projects.

Halespur that interview with the minerals council economist was really very interesting.

Why don't we get the chance to hear informed people talk at length like this in the UK. It really allows you to understand where he is coming from and the points he is making. We are becoming a nation that can only concentrate for the lengths of a soundbite.

I am more interested in someone owning up to the round number sells.

in respect of your last question KN - the sort that thinks that they always know better than those who have actually bothered to study the company.

In the case of BMN this latter group is actually remarkably large in size and depth of understanding which means that this is not your common or garden AIM stock that you can simply shake and watch the shareholders drop off.

pb940 - Mokopane has around 2 million tonnes of contained V2O5 so Mokopane alone could supply both of those plants for a decade.

interesting to hear that SloppyGuiseppe - it was the new of the outrageously huge Fangchenggang project that first prompted me to attend the mid 2017 Manchester meeting of the Vanitec Energy Storage Committee. I have now been to the subsequent meetings in London, Lausanne and Lyon. Alas my city streak will break as it is not another city beginning with 'L' this summer, but instead sunny Dusseldorf.

Recently we hear of a second massive electrolyte processing plant at Ningde, Fujian with a similarly ambitious scale (200,000 cubic metres per annum of electrolyte - some 250,000 tonnes.)

Between them these plants would be capable of producing something like 500,000 tonnes of electrolyte - this might contain about 60,000 tonnes of Vanadium, and each year would yield enough electrolyte to be capable of storing 12 GWh.

bassguy - there is no requirement for either market to hold 'pots' of shares - the Market Makers on AIM are just middle men they are not investors. Should any JSE market makers (should they exist in that market) need to get shares then they no doubt can purchase them from whichever London market BMN is listed on at that time, which equally does not have a stock of shares.

All shares that are sold in the market will ultimately have to come from those that are holding them now (notwithstanding the general principle of dilutative fund raises) - that is why it makes sense to hold on to any shares that you may have now.

What the eagle eyed will have spotted is just how out of step the Rotterdam price was compared with the others. This is reflected in the 60-day increase of +7.23% as compared with the other prices that were essentially unchanged over that period.

Evidently whatever it is that was suppressing the Rotterdam price has now been removed. There is a broader question - was this factor was the one that was behind the march 2019 fall that occurred after the initial reestablishment of equilibrium at 75 USD/KgV?

bassguy - what shares are needed for the JSE listing ?

of electrolyte leasing shown here:- http://vanitec.org/images/uploads/Avalon_Battery_-_Company_and_Products_Overview_for_Chengdu_Vanadium_Symposium.pdf

90 kWh battery for Sandbar Solar overall cost $46,000 (page 21)
this contains 1,550 pounds of V2O5 (page 28) - this equates to 395 Kg V
the reduction for leasing the electrolyte is 31,950 (page 29)
this works out as an electrolyte cost of $80.9 per Kg V

The lease payments are $2,556 per year for a 10 year lease - this is exactly 8%
after 3 years the lessee can buy the entire electrolyte at the greater of the original electrolyte cost and the current market price.

After 10 years the lessee can buy back the entire electrolyte at $23,623 (74% of the original electrolyte price). This tends to imply that that is the residual value of the electrolyte. However there is no real degradation of this electrolyte so the reduction is essentially a recognition of the fact that the lessee has already paid 10x8% of the original electrolyte value along the way.

Apologies Sanchez - I missed the fact that you mentioned it as it was mixed in with all the other good stuff.

In summary then BMN is going to be the definitive M2B business. Quite simply no other battery technology offers such a strong dependence on a single mined metal. So you won't see this anywhere else again in a long time.