Member Info for Alfa

...or further to fall? With a few more million sold yesterday as low as 5p and no signs of any significant buying, which way is this going to go? Interesting that last week the mm's were happy to take the previous millions at 7p, but it would seem no-one has stepped in to buy as yet – I wonder if RAB and Och Ziff are also waiting this one out before making a move? If they do step in the sp will recover quickly, but if more millions get sold, maybe the sp will go even lower – however as the sp is getting close to the value of BRM's cash reserves, effectively valuing their South African operations at zero (without even mentioning the DRC), surely we can't go much lower?

Our seller has been busy this morning, that's 7m now. Price holding though, so the market makers must feel they can sell them for more, or already have orders to fill. Lets hope that is the lot and we can start to move up from here.

I think the link here is just out of date - it should point to www.blackrockoil.com - that is the one they mention in their RNS and seems to be working ok.

It would seem that way – the movements in sp over recent weeks haven't been backed up by any trading. Selling certainly can't account for the fall we've seen and how many shares the mm's have picked up through their tree-shaking is debatable, maybe that is why they are shaking harder each time – but as there isn't any logic to selling now, ahead of the news, I guess it is going to take some serious shaking to get sells at these levels - I think they'd need to knock 5p off to start a panic.

It wasn't you; I was actually referring to Stevey's comments that Glue must have been abusing solvents shortly before his 75k buy!! I'm surprised you're not a gambler; I thought all the Irish were ;) I do enjoy a gamble myself (only on stocks though), but it's only really the upside I'm interested in, so if the downside is limited, all the better. Time will tell whether they have the necessary political influence in the DRC and whether they need that to secure the licence, but the more I look into this, the more it seems that BRM could multiply from here on South Africa alone, and with a resource statement due soon, this is looking better and better.

Well, if that is the case, let's hope they wire it up to one of those electric shock machines they use in the hospital and we get a nice blip upwards ;) I really would buy some more, but I'm not going to this time, as I'm already way (WAY) over invested here – any chance of some (positive) news soon, please (PLEASE) BLR?

Let's not call 75k a gamble, as I bought a large amount on Friday too!! I don't see it as too much of a gamble, though; as others have noted, the South African assets should more than cover the current sp, with or without the DRC – so any downside should be limited. We've also seen support from two big hedge funds and if the DRC does indeed come good – and with their licence being one of the most recently agreed, you would have thought it stands the best chance of being confirmed – we'd be talking multiples of today. Risk factors are the amount of money they have invested in the DRC if it doesn't come off and any other factors we aren't aware of – but no risk, no fun. Worth a considered investment or an outright gamble – good luck all :)

Yeah, I saw that – looked like blatant ramping to me – post something and then post again under a different name to back it up – possibly from whoever it was that sold today (assuming that is why we are 2p down), trying to bump the price up a bit first.

It is very disappointing that, on the basis that we were lead to believe we would have news on both Arce and Acacia by now, that we haven't even had an update of when we can expect news, even if, for whatever reason, we cannot be party to any actual news. Beatthespread – they will make sure they have some good news for the AGM, otherwise I think they know they wouldn't be leaving alive!! Having said all of that, the actual prospects for the company are still very positive and I remain a believer (in fact I've topped up today at 17.75p), it would just good to know what is happening out there in Colombia and not be left in dark like we are. computer_bits – definitely a buy at these levels – and if you are new to this share, you would be the enviable position, and probably the only shareholder, not at a significant loss!!

There may be other reasons, but when I've bought on a T20, my trades show up with the "bargain conditions apply" tag – but this only seems to happen where I've paid a premium to the market price. I have seen this when I’ve closed a T20 too, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't always happen (maybe when it has only been a partial close?). When you're looking at trades and notice one with a higher price than the ones around it, it tends to have the "bargain conditions apply" tag, so I'm assuming these are other extended settlement trades. The two today may well be short-term punts on the news that never came and hence forced sales at painful 19p.

Maybe, but we had two 50k buys yesterday that failed to move the price the other way. It might just be the mm's trying to encourage some selling, so they can stock up for when the great news hits – we're about a month since the placing now – or am I still in denial...

Beatthespread, you seem to be experiencing the "anger" stage at the moment. Previous to this has been "denial" ("we'll get news tomorrow, I'm sure we will") and from here we have "bargaining" (probably with the bank manger), followed by "depression" (my current stage) and finally "acceptance" (that our money is gone forever). Just kidding, of course; we'll get news tomorrow, I'm sure we will.

I can't see it being that long – we'll at least be due another placing before then ;-) We were obviously being overly optimistic before, but still I believe we'll have news sooner rather than later. Hopefully it is just the case that announcing price sensitive news shortly after a placing and a placing that the directors subscribed to, would't have been appropriate. Our friends at Ecopetrol sat on the previous results for weeks as well, so assuming they will want to cast their eyes over the latest results first – and they haven't announced a decision on their right to back-in, so this is more than feasible – this could be another source for delay.

The only news is that there is no news, but that is not exactly news when it comes to BLR, if in fact it is news at all. But if no news can be good news, then maybe we not only have news, but in fact we have good news. So what have we been waiting for has been here all along – we have good news!!

I'm not sure we can know that the fall was due to the placing shares being sold for a profit and what is different this time, is that we have newsflow over the coming months on a number of projects, something that was very much lacking before Acacia in July and without news, oil explorers do tend to drift downwards. It was disappointing that the placing was as low as 18p, but we can only assume that it was as much as they could get for them and if they could have got more they would have done so. I am, of course, putting a lot of faith in the BLR management with my comments here and without that faith, I might well have come to the same conclusions as you have and time will tell whether my faith is misplaced. Talking about faith, I reckon those crafty Muslims probably just pop out the back for their bacon butties when Allah isn't looking and I'm sure I saw a Thresher delivery van parked outside a Mosque once!!

I don't think anyone is going to do anything before we get the updates on Acacia and Arce - I think everyone has taken their position now, no-one left to buy and there is no point selling before the news is out. I wouldn't expect the new investors from the placing to have a short-term view, they will be professionals who will have made the decision based on the company's longer-term prospects, so I don't see them bailing. Also, some may well have taken part in previous placings, so like the rest of us, would be in a negative position overall. Roll on some news (please BLR).

Good article and sets out just how far we could go – if BLR does become a mid-cap producer, maybe we'll all be able to get adjoining beach houses and I don't mean in Scarborough! It did reach 80p around the end of last year – my first buy was at that point, or 1.6p in old money – and if all goes well, hopefully it'll be the lows that will seem unbelievable by the end of this year...

I'm not in a dissimilar position myself – my core holding now averages about 40p, as I've allowed the first of my four additional short-termers to settle, so I'll keep those now for the long term. I need an average of 26p on the other three for breakeven, with the first settlement due next week, so hoping on some positive news any time soon! We've had a lot of activity today, the sort of activity that tends to precede an announcement...

Looks like that 150k sale has given the sp a nice boost today and on the basis BLR seems to move "counter-intuitively" to news and buying/selling, you may have found your perfect share! I'm assuming it is actually a buy (it's a "single protected transaction" – I'm not sure exactly what that means, but it might explain something) and with today's movement our most recent trades are now showing a profit.

The shares from the placing will already have owners – arranged by BLR's new brokers; they werent just sold onto the market. I would expect these new owners will have a suitably long timeframe for their investment, so they won't be selling them anytime soon – in fact, I believe the market makers have ensured this, by dropping the sp to the placing level. We've seen a few "green shoots" today and some buying – but it looks like we won't have any real movement until we get some news. Despite the state of the sp, now with the placing out of the way and the £2m funding in the bank, things are actually very positive for BLR – but until we get the updates from Acacia (in particular) and Arce, no-one is going to believe it!