Member Info for Alfa

I'm still here, just haven't posted since Mar 04th, when I said; "All the bad news should be behind us now. Acacia 2 looking good for commercial production, but not as good as Acacia 1, as we were expecting. We've also had confirmation of the Alhucema financing today to go with last week's confirmation of Las Quinchas with our new Canadian friends, Prospero. We can look forward to the spudding of Arrinconada, seismic to decide the location of Acacia 3 and the competent persons report of our prospects and with it all financed we can look forward to a good, potentially great, year ahead. Good luck all." Not much has happened since then, until today's Arrinconada spud, well nothing apart from the sp falling anyway, but that isn't news with this share! To say the results of Arrinconada are critical is something of an understatement, so roll on 20-30 days time and good luck!

All the bad news should be behind us now. Acacia 2 looking good for commercial production, but not as good as Acacia 1, as we were expecting. We've also had confirmation of the Alhucema financing today to go with last week's confirmation of Las Quinchas with our new Canadian friends, Prospero. We can look forward to the spudding of Arrinconada, seismic to decide the location of Acacia 3 and the competent persons report of our prospects and with it all financed we can look forward to a good, potentially great, year ahead. Good luck all.

Lol Lupupa, very strong briefly and then back to way we started!! The Prospero deal is, I believe, excellent news; if only our directors were as savvy at getting oil out of the ground as they are at raising finance! But, as noted in the RNS, our new friend’s “extensive South American heavy oil experience” should be a big bonus there. To have the whole year’s financing sorted out in Feb is great and will allow the focus to be firmly on our prospects and by the end of the year we could be in sight of, if not in, production that will pay for, or be borrowed against, for future development expenditure. Ok, we’ve been diluted by the deal, but one way or another that was always going to happen and with the potential size of our prospects there should be plenty to go around for everyone – certainly this is far better than another placing, at would have to have been at a new all-time low sp, or going under all together. We’ve certainly had more than our fair share of false-dawns at BLR and we’ve said it many times before, but could this be the real one, is that sun we are finally seeing on the horizon?

That’s me back out at 5.9p, 14.5% after costs since Friday; I’m not going to be greedy and can’t resist a quick profit :) I still don’t know where this co is ultimately going to end up, whether we’ll see a big increase on Waterval or new assets injected, or it’ll go the other way as Valticheck is suggesting it might - new assets will be injected but perhaps not on favourable terms for the shareholders - enough doubt for me to take my quick profits anyway. Good luck to everyone holding though.

I wonder where this co is going, but they still have a lot of cash, their current RSA assets are not affected by the RNS and only recently we saw the chairman buy 3m shares for a fund he controls (at around 6.5p). I last bought these at 7.2p, held during the trips down to under 5p and finally sold when it got back over 7.2p for a tiny profit. On that basis I couldn't resist today's 5.1p, but I am feeling a bit nervous about it!

Although it would seem that Acacia 2 has missed the best part of the field, it still found significant oil and my feeling is that it will flow at commercial rates, but just not at the impressive 100 bpd of Acacia 1. The further seismic will allow for more accurate sites for future wells and as we have only drilled in one direction from Acacia 1, the field may still be every bit as large and deep as we hoping. Acacia 2 initial results due early Feb and a commercial flow rate should bounce us back to the recent 18-20p high IMOO (in my optimistic opinion!).

I can't seem to find any news anywhere, but we have seen the mm's push the sp down aggressively on any selling and maybe there will be a bigger trade show up later. As the mm's don't seem to want them, I've taken a few off their hands at 10.35p on a T20.

BLR have given their rather outdated website a nice new lick of paint at www.blackrockoil.com The highlights are good summary pages of our Colombian and North Sea assets, plus more in depth technical reviews (there is an easily missed link to a pdf at the bottom of the summary pages). The technical reviews are quite interesting and provide an insight into exactly how it all works and why the additional seismic data is so important. Under Investor Information, Presentations there is a presentation from November which is also interesting and has a picture of some actual oil on one page – although it is only a cup full and it looks suspiciously like mud to me!

A Summary of our current situtation; http://www.oilbarrel.com/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1200535415&feed=oilbarrel_en The last paragraph is the best bit; "Investors should also remember there is still plenty of potential in Colombia. Acacia Este may be more complex than first thought but the original flow rates from the discovery well remain highly encouraging: further seismic and modeling work could well unlock the potential of this field. The company also has plenty of other exploration and redevelopment projects within the Colombian portfolio, not least the Baul oilfield, discovered in 1960 with estimated recoverable reserves of 2 to 3 million barrels. And later this quarter, the company plans to drill the Arrinconada-1 exploration well on the Alhucema block."

We can't just have an unmitigated success can we; always "complications" of some sort :( Far from a disaster though - this wasn't a plugged and abandoned – with oil shows over 100 ft and the testing programme will go ahead. I guess we'll just have to look forward to the test results and hope for some good flow rates as least.

A dip was inevitable after the jump we had, so if this is the dip over ready for the next jump, then we're looking good. No sign of any significant trades, so yes, either something will show up later, or news of a forthcoming RNS has leaked.

I was surprised to see such a jump in the sp on the spud announcement – on the basis it was a scheduled event and nothing has actually changed, such an increase didn't seem very logical – surely the success or failure of the well is the important bit, but then the BLR sp and logic have never been close friends! Good news though of course and if this is how the sp responds to just a spud RNS, then I wonder what could happen on a successful drilling RNS > 30p anyone? Timing of such an RNS is the next issue and as we have found out in the past, trying to read between the lines of a BLR RNS is not easy and although their indication of up to 40 days to test and complete would put us towards the end of the month, I wonder if we'll get an RNS before then once the drilling phase is over and before the initial test begins – this is what happened with Acacia 1 and would put us on course for later this week or next week if that is going to be the case. Fingers crossed everyone and so far at least the turnaround is holding :)

A good in-depth round up of our current position and continued positive vibes about Acacia. The best bit though is the funding needed for next year (after Acacia 2 and Arriconada) may be provided by third parties for a share of future revenues, rather than through placings – they sounded very positive on this, I wonder if all it is waiting on is the success of Acacia 2 and will be signed and sealed. Sp continues to languish however, but I think this is just all the negativity and lack of confidence, but with announcements to come on the Acacia 2 spud (imminent), Acacia 2 initial results (2-3 weeks later), third party funding and the reserves report and long term tests on Acacia 1 & 2 due by the end of March, we could be in for an exciting 3 months. Ok, all this has been said before only for further disappointment, but maybe, just maybe from here is where it all turns around.

I think they need a reason for suspension other than to stop the sp falling! Our suffering may soon be over though, with the RNS to confirm the spudding of Acacia 2 and then the initial results to follow a couple of weeks later. (I'm assuming there will be two announcements, as there was with Acacia 1, although they haven't said this explicitly and conceivably they could wait for the initial results, as in reality the spud itself isn't news, although it would be good to know when it gets underway.) The sp pretty much doubled on the Acacia 1 results, even from a higher level, and with so much negativity priced in at the moment, there is plenty of scope for some sort of a significant increase from here – I speculated on 20p a week or so ago, but I wasn't feeling particularly optimistic at the time. A bid from Tullow or anyone else would be welcome, but I would only want it to happen after the success of Acacia 2, Arriconada and on the new reserves report due at the end of March – and those events affect on the sp. Any bidder would likely want to wait on those developments in any case, but a bid at that point, with a sp already in the 40-50p bracket, could be very interesting.

Acacia remains key to whether we are going to make any money here, or even get our money back – however and despite the seeming mismanagement of the project, Acacia is still the one bright light. (Lupupa) Optimistically, I would look for a sp of 20p on the initial results of Acacia 2 (due by the end of the year, so we should have these by February) and 40p by the end of March, when the new reserves report is published along with long terms tests on Acacia 1 & 2. I am having trouble remaining optimistic, however, and do wonder what disaster will be announced next. I continue to hold though.

If we do have a poor management team in place and the hedge funds are going to force change, this could well be a very good thing. I know the hedge funds aren't going to looking out for the likes of us, but with the sp already on floor, I'm thinking any change could well be good for us and as has been said here, the fact the they are bothering would suggest there is something worth saving. I could get out now for a small loss, but I think staying in could be well worth the risk.

Disappointing update overall, but at least they didn't mention another placing (I guess they are saving that for the new year). Arce is very disappointing, looking almost a write-off it would seem. Acacia continues to look good, but I don't think we are going to get any sp-boosting news anytime soon. Delays to Arriconada (nee Juanes). Good news on the North Sea though, I had kind of written that one off and it is good that all our assets aren't in Colombia. I think it is best just to tuck away our holdings and come back in 3 months for the new reserves report and hope for some good test results from Acacia. I feel a bit like Christmas morning now – all that waiting only to find you have a new pair of socks...

Glad to say my holding is now back at breakeven and have high hopes on the run up to Xmas – with the RSA resource statement due and who knows maybe a surprise on the DRC. The addition of more African experience to the board this week is another positive. The Minesite article seems unnecessarily negative to me, and though if nothing comes of the DRC then fair enough with regards to that, but as they seem to only begrudgingly note that the RSA operations are going well.

I've given up predicting or expecting news – but one day it will happen (won't it?). Interesting to see that BLR will be presenting at an investor event on Jan 10th, so surely they will be announcing something positive ahead of that. However, I assume the reason for the presentation will be ahead of another placing, to finance next year's plans – I think the last placing will only pay for Acacia 2 and Juanes.

Up 1 at 5.75-6.00 now – I wonder if an announcement is on its way, or just some correction to yesterday's fall.