Value31 Jul 2019 09:13
Here's my summary of where we are at and what's happened. Firstly, it was no secret that every Ncondezi holder envisaged some level of "sell on news" occuring upon the signing of the JDA between General Electric, CMEC and NCCL, but I think most people also thought that PI selling would be dwarfed by big money and l institutional buying. I guess we were half right - we certainly saw a huge increase in liquidity that enabled all the shenanigans that eyeguy mentioned earlier. Lots of stake bulls who wanted out got out, lots of hot trader money which was trapped due to extended jda deadlines got out and novum managed to flip their 1.5m warrants. What we didn't see was the huge buying.
That's because big money is also smart money. They also would have anticipated a sell on news and likely just stepped back and watched it happen. It became a self fulfilling prophecy exacerbated by novums 1.5m sell that spooked people. The big money (smart money) wasn't going to start buying on jda spike they will wait for it to settle and retrace slightly. This isn't their first rodeo!!
Well that's happened, the jda materially de-risked the project, we spiked and not we have retraced (too much I'd say) Scott Fletchers increased TR1 for me is a line in the sand, and I doubt it goes any lower. No more warrants in issue and most who wanted out are now out. This is not some bucketshop project - it's a multi billion dollar project and will certainly be on radars. I can fully imagine that the big money (smart money) will begin accumulating over the next few months in the lead up to PPA. Therefore the value is between no and then. We may see this happening now or after the summer break (maybe Scott is greedy for more also?)
Tariff is already pretty much agreed in principle between the government and partners and so shouldn't take all that long - upon this agreement NCCL will receive $25m and also it will enable the market to value the project effectively. Big rerate between now and then, and bigger rerate after. This is a big project with big numbers and nccl have a 40% stake. This is going to be huge.