Tullow 2018 Cash flow8 Jan 2018 23:58
Rob, I am hoping we get closer to �3 now, I want more, but one step at a time mate.
Angus, talks that with oil in 60's they should meet the 2.5 times this year easily, below are scenarios of cash flow & earnings (Ignoring write downs) for 2018
90,000 Bpd
Oil variable - different scenarios
Opex - $10
Admin cost - $110m
Interest Payments - $200m (Will reduce as we continue to pay debt)
Tax - $150m ( I am being generous)
Oil = $50
Cash flow ignoring debt payment + Capex = $1.05bn
Oil = $60
Cash flow ignoring debt payment + Capex = $1.38bn
Oil = $70
Cash flow ignoring debt payment + Capex = $1.71bn
So in above scenarios we have a range of $1.1 - $1.7bn, lets take the middle $1.3bn, assume Capex (Including explration $0.5bn , we are left with $0.8bn. This does not include the monies expected this year for Uganda c$0.2bn, so this year we could have $1bn to pay off in debt, which will reduce the net debt position but if they choose to pay the debt down could result in lower interest payments.
Now, there could be a few bits of the assumption that can flex and I am not sure if I have missed anything off, but as we continue to benefit with this oil price and reduce debt our position gets stronger.
I called $60 oil end of 2017 and was glad it superceeded, but if we assume an average price of $60 oil this year we reduce net debt down significantly.