RE: Back to 3p oversold26 Aug 2022 11:34
The below was written by a Shorter of AMC over a year ago! When the share price was near $2 Similar to what we are hearing at the moment! Did it happen to AMC? Did they go bankrupt? NO! They are still here trading it 5 x the $2 when this was written! Even reached $30 this year!
I believe that AMC will go bankrupt or restructure their company and wipe out all equity holders in the process. Their financial problems are increasingly glaring with each passing quarter they are unable to raise cash (debt, equity, business operations). While current sentiment has retail traders holding out for a angel savior, the longer this goes on more and more investors will see AMC for what it is and leave, weakening retail sentiment, and perpetuate the cycle of retail shareholders selling off more shares.
Markets are forward looking, and without positive cash, AMC looks to be nearly bankrupt by year end (missing estimates even once would accelerate this process). Given this timeline, I expect investors will catch on to this well before the actual bankruptcy occurs. Much like how markets can't keep ignoring MT's titanic cash flows forever, they won't be able to ignore AMC's lack of cash flows forever. There will be a point where the underwhelming quarterly performance and inevitable threat of wiping out equity holders will scare off retail traders as well. Note that even if retailers hold forever, they are against any share issuance and AMC's bankruptcy is pretty set in stone regardless of what they do.