RE: CEO predicts 600% growth in his own company!31 Aug 2025 21:55
Of course, this has nothing to do with our arbitration – but as I said, I have an interest in fair play.”
But seriously – is it wise to ‘hype’ your own company like this when you don’t know the outcome?
“I disagree with the use of the word ‘hype’. I have never hyped the company, but I have always informed investors about what the company is doing and what my opinions are. Had I known we would lose the case, we would not have gone to arbitration in the first place. The facts are simple: if we had fully won ICC2, the company would ultimately have received USD 130 million. Our case was very strong, and I have previously said that in my view the loss was not due to the case itself, but rather conflicts of interest within the arbitration.
We have a third arbitration coming, this time for USD 503 million, at ICSID (not ICC). I strongly believe we will win this case. As is well known, ICSID is the world’s leading institution for international dispute resolution, established by the World Bank. We expect that this time we will get a fair process.”
So what are the drivers now?
“The stock market is the world’s most efficient mechanism for valuing companies in the long term. That’s why people always say the market never gets it wrong. But the market has one weakness, and that is that in the short term it tends to overreact to news and can behave irrationally.
Take Zenith as an example – the actual value of today’s operations, excluding the solar projects, is about USD 50 million. Before the ICC2 case, the company had a market cap of about USD 110 million. At that time, we had arbitration claims worth USD 630 million outstanding, and the market reasonably reflected about 10% of that potential in the share price, which was then about NOK 2.
But then we lose the second arbitration, and the share price falls from NOK 2 to NOK 0.45, with a market value of about USD 21 million. The market is therefore now valuing Zenith at less than half the value of its operations alone, and at zero probability of winning ICSID.
Today’s share price clearly does not give a true picture of either Zenith’s current value or our outlook. In the long term the market is right, but in the short term it can behave irrationally.
A rational assessment would have been that we lost ICC2 (temporarily, since we are very confident of annulment), and that we then went from USD 630 million in potential awards to USD 500 million. The value should then have been around USD 100 million.
The difference in valuation is purely sentiment. The market assumes that because we lost ICC2, we will also lose ICSID – which is not true.
I know this is no comfort to investors right now, but the share price is in a deviation situation, and it will recover. I have full confidence in our case against Tunisia, and I believe ICC2 will be annulled, as well as that we will win ICSID.