Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Apps I have to say I have been keeping a very close eye on the numbers of visitors to the site and the spike is staggering. Aug visitors: 789,259 (16% from indian market) Sep visitors: 3,029,069 (24% from Indian martlet) Oct visitors to 11th Oct: 2,241,985 (currently 42% from Indian market) On 1st September they were getting a total of 56,609 visitors per day. The figures reported on 11th October highlight 280,908 visitors in the day. That's a 5 fold increase in the space of as many weeks and the increase I am seeing is exponential and that doesn't take into the increase in the percentage of Indian visitors! 56,609 visitors with 24% being from the Indian market equates to 13,586 Indian visitors. 280,908 visitors with 42% being from the Indian market equates to 117,981 Indian visitors. That's actually more then a 10 fold increase in the number of Indian visitors in the space of 5-6 weeks! Staggering numbers!
I am actually quite optimistic about MOS at the moment. They had a dire August with only 700k visitors to their website but since the middle of September I am seeing some massively consistent numbers of over 200k visitors per day with a third of them from the Indian market. I think we will be surpassing the 500k active subscribers by the end of October... although MOS were struggling to get them all to pay which presents its own problem. Hoping for some positive news to offset what will be another large loss in the latest final results.
After struggling in August with just under 800k visitors to mobilegaming.com September brought in over 3m visitors which averages over 100k per day. If October can pull in the same sort of numbers I expect them to be hitting 500k active subscriber numbers in India fairly soon (even if some of them don't have the funds to pay!). Rolling averages over the last few days: 28 day rolling average 106,058 visitors 14 day rolling average 121,581 visitors 7 day rolling average 124,904 visitors It doesn't appear that they are struggling to get people onto the website so hopefully they have worked out a better strategy on how to monetise these visitors as the trading update suggested.
I have been looking at the stats for the website and all I can see is an upward trend in the number of visitors. On Wed just gone it was the first time that they had over 150k visitors in a single day with 25% of them being from India. That's 37.5k Indian visitors per day, over the course of 60 days (how they work out active subscribers) that's 2.25m visitors from India every 60 days. so for me they are getting the traffic they just need to tweet the business model to turn this into revenue and profit.
Cash in bank from half year reports and trading statements: Dec-16: £2.8m Mar-17: £2.6m Jun-17: £2.3m From the above the assumed best case would be £2m still in the bank.
It's a shambles I am afraid. Financial year end for MOS is from end of June 17 to end of June 18. It's beggars belief we are 3 months into the current financial year and they are giving out warnings of "materially lower revenue and EBITDA then expected".
I actually thought they were doing well. If you look at the website analytics they are consistently getting over 100k visitors a day to mobile games.com with a bounce rate of around 50% and falling. All this traffic I s is obviously not turning into sales due to people unable to pay and when they can the revenue is obviously low due to mobile providers cutting margins. This appears to have caught the management team by surprise which will hopefully mean that they up their game.
What was the market expectations for revenue and EBITDA - think I missed that memo?! I think cash burn is obviously going to be a problem now especially since they can't get any money out of the "active subscribers" that they have won over. Always a risk this one - going to hold and see what happens but I expect them to come back to the market cap in hand by the end of the financial year again. Mr Buckingham needs to work some magic here but think amtech is right - outdated business model is being left behind and expect revenues to halve again this financial year. Latim vs India indeed and it's not looking great.
Why surprised. Doubt whether we will see anything until final results as they would be going some to get to 500k active subscribers.
Took us 10 months to go from 50k to 250k active subscribers so would be going some if we went from there to 500k when final results are realised. 300-400k active subscribers would show good growth and with the final result we should get some idea on the revenue that is being brought in from India. It really is a case of can they break even quick enough. They didn't break even in Argentina until they hit around the 1m mark according to my figures so they do need to continue to make big gains in the coming months.
Trading statement last September was because they hit the 50,000 subscriber milestone figure. Next milestone is 500,000 subscribers which is a huge jump in numbers and so I personally don't think we will see anything until final year end results at end October / beginning of November.
Around 1% of shares traded yesterday and it moved 16%! Basically nothing more then low liquidity. I can't see anything significant happening here until final results are realised apart from it yoyo-ing around 3-3.5p!
Apps it's certainly been a strange couple of days! Quick question - I was trying to look at the website data on the simplyweb system for MOS Indian website but the link doesn't work anymore. Do you know what the stats were for August?
The exchange rate from Argentina hasn't really recovered over the last few months but I think the decrease has been more to do with a general decline in sales. At the moment the Indian investment seems to be a bit up and down and this will continue until they can get the analytics right. I don't think we will see an update until November when the final accounts are due imho as I can't see us hitting 500k subs until then. As Amtech says it's a tough market in India with lots of competition but I hope they can get it right as I have a substantial punt on this.
Fully funded until at least the end of 2018 with £2.3m in the bank - no brainer to hold onto these.
Nothing has changed for me. No big bombshells either way bad or good: - Active subscribers at 250k - I was hoping for more but at this level it is in line with my expectations - Revenue of £5.6m for year end - we had revenue of £3.6m from Jul to Dec 2016 and therefore this equates to a revenue of £2m in the half year Jan to Jun 2017. Revenue is therefore in decline but again in line with what I expected - EBITDA - MOS say it's in line with expectations - Cash in bank of £2.3m vs £2.8m at the end of Dec 16 so a cash burn of c£80k per month So I wasn't expecting a big rerate on news but I am disappointed in the level of information in the RNS. In my mind we are fully funded until the end of 2018 financial year and so it's a long term hold and wait. If it goes down to 2-3p in the meantime I will be adding more as I am buying (not without risk) the huge potential here.
Is that why your name is not2sure?
I am sure it's swings and roundabouts with every subscriber that's why I have been saying for some time that subscriber figures without an idea of average revenue doesn't give us an idea of the real potential here... doubt we will get too much on this stuff as it may be price sensitive info but we will get a good idea of where this is going by the end of the month... hopefully!
Well if Apps is correct on a basic income of 1.2p per day from each active subscriber then the basic sums would be: 200,000 subscribers: 1.2p x 60 days x 200,000 = £144k every 60 days 300,000 subscribers: 1.2p x 60 days x 300,000 = £216k every 60 days This obviously doesn't equate to profits as much more then this will be being spent on marketing to promote growth but you get the picture. Argintina wasn't showing profits until over 1m active subscribers so I would expect this to be similar but once over that hurdle I expect MOS to be making some serious money so it's a bet on the potential here hence why we need to know the average active subscriber revenue. If we are in and around or over the 300k active subscribers in India then this could be huge.
Just got a letter back from my MP Dame Tessa Jowell stating that she has written to Dr Vince Cable and asked him to investigate the matter. Fingers crossed we are now getting some pressure in the right places.