Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Amtech I took a look at Alexa and it doesn’t give a breakdown of numbers of visitors to the website - can you divulge the numbers you are seeing for the months of May to October? The metrics I can see on Alexa are for September for a start and they work out popularity of a website based on number of visits AND pages viewed per visit whereas similarweb work it out purely on numbers of individual visitors. The later would give mobilestreams more revenue I believe on the basis of an ad funding but I could be totally wrong. As I was saying you can’t really compare one web analysis tool to another as they work differently and with different algorithms but if you just analysis the same web analysis tool it does paint a picture over time. Interesting post though Amtech.
Will check out Alexa in detail later on but there are dozen of web analysis websites out there and all will have different figures so who knows how actuate they are! However if you use the same site for analysis on the figures then it gives you some sort of picture. To have October’s figures more then May, June, July, August and September combined is interesting to say the least. June and Julys figures at 3.5m users combined gave active subs of 275k. September and October combined are well over 10m so you can make your own interpretation of that. Who knows they could be completely wrong thing to be looking at but it is intuging.
That was rather funny for you Amtech. I have to agree but I am a glass half full type of chap and I think that things can only get better.... well they can’t get much worse can they!!
The traffic has seen a downturn over the last 7 days from a high of over 400k to 206k on 29th October. These things are usually cyclicable through the month (not sure if pay day would be the end of the month in India) so we will see in the next few days. If the numbers pick up again then it’s a trend... if they don’t then I guess who knows. All I know if you were going to tell me MOS were going to see over 8m visits in October which is the same as June, July, August and September combined after such a poor RNS I would not have believed you. As Amtech kindly (I am exaggerating about the kindly) points out these need to be translated into revenue and with an ad based website formula I would fullly expect them to be... but who knows with this share. I for one won’t jump any gun until I have seen MOS perform over a 60 day period and I want to see November’s numbers being the same as October’s if not better.
I enjoyed your opinions before but they don’t have any depth at the moment amtech - we are all aware that mos revenue is low hence the share price?
Why do you hope? Do you hold any shares here?
I was wondering when you were going to come out of hiding Amtech. Don’t be misleading. The trading statement stated that revenue was still expected to increase this financial year but that some subscribers could not pay. Let’s compare September vs today: Mid September - 100k visitors with 20% from Indian marketplace = 25k visitors per day Mid October - 350k visitors with 70% from Indian market = 245k visitors per day That’s what’s changed here although that doesn’t mean revenue or profit so waiting for the final results to shed some light.
About 650,000,000 websites. 14,393 is pretty good.
No idea what you are looking at Stew but it may be better if you just let people on here update you of number! MOS global rank currently sits at 14,393 not 17m?!!
Kong it's based on a revenue generating subscription service, with both daily and weekly subscription packages that are ad-funded via the mobilegaming.com service. So the more visits to the website will essentially get more people signing up for the free based content (games etc) which then generates revenue through ads on that content.
Stew don't get too carried away. The revenue per Indian subscriber is less then in Argentina. Also the last RNS suggested that MOS were getting less per subscriber then they had envisaged and that some subscribers could not even pay due to insufficient funds so it is a tougher more competitive marketplace. Furthermore MOS have to maintain this kind of traffic over a long period of time to realise that kind of revenue and who is to say if they do it will be as profitable. Lots of variables but it is starting to look very interesting indeed!
At the height of popularity in Argentina back at the start of 2014 MOS were reporting over 4m active subscribers (customers that pay to use the site in the last 2 months) which were giving revenues of around �50m per year. There were 3.4m visitors to the website over a 2 month period when MOS declared the 250k subscriber milestone which if the same implied to Argentine for the 4m subscribers would equate to website visits of over 50m every 2 months so around 1m visits a day... we are currently on 400k visits per day and climbing...
Who knows it's all guesswork but to give an illustration in August they were averaging 25,000 visitors per day and now it's at over 400,000 per day. A 16 fold increase in traffic.
Smashed through to over 400,000 visitors per day
Totally agree no idea where these people get the share price predictions from lol! I do think that significant progress has been made on marketing the site as you can see that from the number of visitors to it over the last 5-6 weeks. 28 days average 200k visitors; 14 day average 270k visitors; 7 day average 325k visitors - just the spread between the averages tells you its continuing to grow in the right direction (if the Google numbers can be relied up on). Note that the August average was paltry 25k visitors per day hence the revenue warning. I agree that MOS do need to update on the revenue per subscriber though as in their last RNS it suggested that they were not getting what they expected. The expected values can be found in their accelerated book building RNS on 1st December at the end of section 2 as being "India benefits from a low cost of customer acquisition of approximately $0.40-$0.70 (compared with approximately $0.50-$1.10 in Argentina), and the net lifetime value of a customer in India is approximately $0.90 to Mobile Streams (compared with approximately $1.15 to Mobile Streams in Argentina)". This says to me that they were expecting a revenue of $0.90 per active subscriber hence using in my post below vs the traffic they are getting on the website. Agreed at the moment MOS is loss making and as I said in my previous pie in the sky post I was looking at what I thought the value was here IF they manage to get consistent fee paying visitors to their site. It blatently obvious if they don't turn it round soon it'll all be over by the end of their financial year and they will be coming back to the market cap in hand. At share price of around 2p they aren't going to be getting much!
I've been looking at this Stew and here is my take: 500,000 active subscribers over 60 days would mean 250,000 paying customers each month. When they proposed the accelerated booking building back in Dec16 to raise money MOS stated that each active subscriber gets them 0.9 dollars in revenue. So assuming 500,000 active subscribers is reached and maintained this would give MOS a revenue of £225,000 dollars a month. And if we assume that 75% of those customers can make the payments (note in their last statement they were struggling to monetise all of them that's c170,000 dollars per month. Now if you take MYSQ which is a company in a similar market they are turning over a revenue of c135,000 dollars per month and their market cap currently stands at £12.5m. So this would crudely suggest if MOS get to 500,000 active subscribers per month then our market cap should be around the same figure. This would equate to a share price of over 10p. There are probably many holes in my thinking and I don't know the MYSQ business too well so it's just lie in the sky stuff but I think if the huge numbers on the website are equating to active subscribers this could be massive. Constructive thoughts and critisim welcome.
By my calcs MOS have had around 7m visitors to the website over the last 60 days (3m in September and 3.8m so far in October). When they announced 250,000 active subscribers back at the end of July there was around 3m visitors to the website (1m in June and 2.4m in July). Back in July only around 20% were visitors from the Indian market whereas in October we are now up to 40%. Logic should tell us that they should have smashed through the 500,000 act over subscriber mark which is a key milestone for MOS. I for one will be expecting an announcement on this soon if this is indeed the case. If so what a turnaround from the last RNS!
They have access to 600m customers - 377k visitors in a day equates to less than 0.1% of this. Potential is colossal but so is the competition.
Yep and that's been factored in - hence the drop to the current share price. What I am interested in is what has happened since then. The website numbers are extraordinary. Ten fold increase in Indian visitors to 125,000 per day and rising all the time. If there isn't a "material" increase in revenue from that in the opposite direction I will be very surprised. It's a market that can change quick so the next update will be interesting but I fully expect them to be hitting 500,000 plus active subscriber mark soon.
Bounce rate on website has come down as well from 72% in August to an average of 55% over the last 28 days. They could very well have hit the sweet spot but you are right they need to ensure that this is turned into revenue.