Member Info for affc21

Scotpak to add to your posts (Thanks) a quick web search of the companies as listed in your post:

Calabar Generation Company limited,

comes under the NDPHC

Niger Delta Power Holding Company Limited (basically a state run limited company).

https://www.ndphc.net/ndphc-company-history

...

Lafarge Africa PLC,

Huaxin Cement, which is buying an 83.8% stake in Lafarge Africa from Holcim. Holcim said in a statement on 1 December that the sale will value the whole business at $1bn and is expected to close in 2025.

News dated: 9 Dec 2024

Huaxin Cement to buy Lafarge Africa for US$1bn

https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/18159-huaxin-cement-to-buy-lafarge-africa-for-us-1bn

...

Ibom Power Company Limited,

Ibom Power was registered and incorporated with the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) in January 2001 by Akwa Ibom Investment and Industrial Promotion Council “AKIIPOC” now Akwa Ibom Investment Corporation (AKICORP). The Company is solely owned by the Akwa Ibom State Government.

Ibom Power Plant - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibom_Power_Plant?wprov=sfla1

...

First Independent Power Limited,

majority owned by

NG Power HPS,

NGPOWER-HPS a partnership between NGPOWER LTD and HPS has acquired 70% stakes in First Independent Power Limited (FIPL).

Incorporated in 2006, FIPL owns and operates power plants in River State with over 500MW installed capacity. NGPOWER LTD is a subsidiary of Sahara Power, the biggest private owner of power assets in Nigeria. HPS is a South Korean based company that is involved in Power Plant maintenance.

Dated: Jun 10, 2015

https://fipl-ng.com/ngpower-hps-acquires-70-stakes-in-fipl/

...

Central Horizon Gas Company Limited,

Axxela Limited — co-owned by Helios Investment Partners LLP ( Helios was founded in 2004 by Tope Lawani and Babatunde Soyoye, and has grown into the largest Africa focused private investment firm. ) and Sojitz Corporation (Sojitz Corporation (Japanese: 双日株式会社, Hepburn: Sōjitsu Kabushiki-gaisha) is a sogo shosha (general trading company) based in Tokyo, Japan. )

— has its headquarters in Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria, and operates through the following subsidiaries - Gaslink Nigeria Limited, Transit Gas Nigeria Limited, Central Horizon Gas Company Limited and Gas Network Service Limited.

Axxela group website flashing red with my antivirus software.

Sojitz - Wikipedia

https://www.heliosinvestment.com/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sojitz?wprov=sfla1

...

Notore Chemical Industries PLC,

majority shareholding held by Notore Chemical Industries (Mauritius) Limited.

...

Shell Nigeria Gas Limited and Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited,

as the name suggests, both come under the Shell group.

Thanks Tarnow,

$250 a metre, that's better than I expected, so 100 metres would cost $25,000 or £19,300 at today's exchange rate. 👍

Oh yes, I certainly took up the opportunity to top up here, which was a golden (pun intended :) opportunity for me at least, having previously thought I had missed my chance to top up from my initial investment here from a couple of months back.

I am very Thankfull that this BB and the Canadian site have been very informative for my research, but was mulling over as to what are the drilling costs per bore hole (as an average) seeing as most are less than 100 metres on the Pepas prospect.

Any feedback appreciated, Thanks

AK's exact words ( transcribed):

"But I think, I think the company that we have is much stronger with the rebasing of the capital and shareholder structure, which has happened over the course of the last 24 hours, and you've seen a very strong degree of support from the management team and from our institutional shareholders. All of our principal institutional shareholders were not involved in the selling side of the transaction, participated in the bank side. So maybe with one exception that the point is, I think the company is fundamentally stronger for what we for those transactions."

The completion of the SIPEC Acquisition creates material potential production upside as we now intend to commence an expansion programme, anticipated to increase Stubb Creek Field gross oil production by c. 75% from an average of 2.7 Kbopd in 2024 to approximately 4.7 Kbopd. The acquisition is highly accretive to group net asset value, adding a management estimated US$194m of value on pre-debt basis [1].

[1] Internal management estimates only which have not been audited. Whilst they have been prepared using reasonable care, they remain subject to change at any time.

https://x.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1899061950845210809?t=EzmMV31du77R8JatoTdG_g&s=19

We are pleased to announce the completion of the acquisition of SIPEC [1], following a signing ceremony held in Lagos earlier this morning. The acquisition consolidates our interest in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field, Nigeria, increasing our group Reserves and Resources base by approximately 30% from 151 MMboe to 197 MMboe [2]. This includes 227 Bscf of 2C gross gas Resources, securing significant additional long-term feedstock gas available for sale to our Accugas customers [2].

[1] Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Nigeria Limited.

[2] A Competent Person’s Report (“CPR”) for the Nigeria Assets was compiled by CGG Services (UK) Ltd (“CGG”) which certified 2P reserves and 2C resources as at 1 January 2024. The Reserves above have been adjusted for produced volumes to year-end 2024.

https://x.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1899052208089661763?t=sz-jYbEqwIAlzQ35hJOGxg&s=19

Smart deal and all for $17.6m

Must be and I'm sure it has been mentioned on here in the past, that there are many stranded gas assets within the region that could possibly be picked up on the cheap.

Good spot mrB,

In the Cavendish brokers note (dated 04.03.25) there is no mention of the World Bank as a guarantee (of last resort).

But it is mentioned in the Shore Capital note (dated 04.03.25) , as shown below:

Catalysts for value creation

1) Recovery of Accugas receivables. Savannah reported a trade receivables balance of $539m (before expected credit losses) at the end of FY24F. The bulk of this relates to payments due to Accugas for gas sales to the Calabar Power Station. These receivables are supported by a partial risk guarantee from the World Bank. Agreement on a payment plan would be accretive to our free cash flow estimates and accelerate debt repayment by Accugas under a cash sweep arrangement. We value Savannah’s share of the receivables at 12p/share on a risked basis, within our 41p/share Tangible NAV estimate.

Trust,

Maybe with the completion of the SIPEC acquisition that is due imminently, will help in closing that gap in the chart, even allowing for dilution.

Completion is anticipated in the first half of March 2025 (as per Update on Ops & Financials, Fundraise & Suspension RNS).

Cavendish (from the brokers note)

Stubb Creek valuations:

Net asset value, 2P reserves = 10.7p

Core value, 2C resources = 3.3p

Contingent value, prospective resources = 0.3p

Total value = 14.3p for 100% ownership.

Therefore on completion of the acquisition of the 49% gives a value of 7.15p approx by my reckoning...

Trust,

Interesting that the chartist seems to be basing his/her views based on the past and present trading volumes. Let's hope he's right.

Another way at looking at that chart (rather simplistically) there's a large gap to be filled which may be affected somewhat by the diluted market cap, as we are all painfully aware.

I'm amazed that TT managed to find a new home for 82m of those shares (as per today's shareholder news), that's some achievement.

Hope I haven't annoyed anyone, that entailed more post's than I initially thought 🤔

Valuation

We reinstate our target price at 51.5p/share, on a fully diluted basis, a 96% premium to the suspension price.

Forecasts

FY24E

We publish FY24E forecasts in line with Savannah’s recent trading update. —Production: Average gross daily production of 23.1kboepd, a 2% reduction on FY23 (23.6kboepd). —Revenue: FY24E revenue is expected to be flat on FY23A to US$224m, with the slight YoY decrease in production offset by higher oil prices. —Cost of sales: Cost of sales in FY24E is broadly flat with FY23A, resulting in gross profit of US$151.8m (FY23A: US$146.4m). —Capex: Capex for FY24E is estimated at US$25.0m (including acquisitions, net of cash). —Net Debt: Net debt at 31 December 2024 is cUS$634m (FY23A: US$474m), with cUS$666m of year end gross debt, of which only 6% was recourse to PLC, offset by cUS$33m in cash.

FY25E

—Production: Average gross daily production of 26.0kboepd, a 12% YoY increase. This increase is primarily driven by Savannah’s increased working interest at Stubb Creek post the anticipated completion of the SIPEC transaction. —Revenue: FY25E revenue is expected to increase by 31% to US$292.8m (FY24E: US$224.0m). This increase is driven by a 12% increase in production and an 8% increase in gas prices. —Cost of sales: Cost of sales in FY25E is expected to be slightly higher, driven by Savannah’s increased working interest at Stubb Creek. This results in a gross profit of US$204m, a 34% YoY increase (FY24E: US$151.8m). —Capex: Capex for FY25E is estimated at US$69m (including acquisitions), and includes an approximate US$11m at Stubb Creek and US$40m for the drilling at Uquo. —Net Debt: Net debt at 31 December 2025 is expected to reduce c23% YoY to US$485m, with cUS$651m of year-end gross debt offset by cUS$165m in cash.

Investing in hydrocarbons and renewables

Africa is home to 18% of the world’s population but only 52% have access to electricity. Despite its size and low electricity access, Africa is estimated to receive only 5% of all global energy investment.

On a current trend basis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that total global energy consumption will grow by 30% from 2020A to 2050E from 587EJ to 764EJ, with oil and gas’s share of the global energy mix remaining stable between 52% and 54% in this period. In absolute terms, this would see oil production rising by 21% and gas production rising by 46% respectively over the period. To meet with net zero standard by 2050, the IEA estimates the oil and gas’s share of the global energy mix would have to fall from 53% to 23%. In absolute terms, this would see oil production falling by 76% and gas production falling by 56% over the period. Total energy consumption between 2023-2050 in Africa is expected to increase by 67% in the IEA’s stated policy scenario to 38.5EJ (2023: 23.1EJ). Over the same period, natural gas demand in Africa is expected to increase by 59% to 290Bcm (2023: 182Bcm).

For Africa to meet its climate pledges and net zero goals, the IEA estimates that Africa will require annual investments of over US$200bn, up from the US$111bn invested in 2024.

Continued

Niger finally coming good?

Savannah’s genesis harks back to Niger and the initial prolific period of exploration success it delivered in the Agadem Rift Basin (ARB), with five back-to-back discoveries in 2018. However, monetisation of the estimated 35mmbbls of discovered resource has taken substantially longer than expected, as a result of limited export options and the pandemic. A comprehensive flow test of the R3 East development in Niger, the first step in developing this material resource, was initially planned for 4Q23 but was impacted by the restrictions imposed by ECOWAS following the military coup which occurred in Niger in July 2023. This resulted in the closure of the border between Niger and Benin, creating logistical challenges for Savannah and hampering the importation of the necessary equipment to complete the well test. During 2024, Savannah has sought to optimise the development plan for the R3 East Area, and, whilst there is no change to the resource estimates, Savannah now forecasts a peak potential production of 10,000bopd (vs 5,000bopd under the previous plan). Management estimates of the forecast PV10 value of the R3 East development project have also increased from US$150m to US$210m. The new 1,950km Niger-Benin export pipeline achieved first oil exports in 2Q24 and is now reported to be fully operational and transporting approximately 90,000 bopd from CNPC’s Agadem licence area to the Port of Cotonou in Benin. The initial export capacity of the Niger-Benin pipeline is 110,000bopd, leaving c20,000bopd of spare capacity taking into account CNPC’s planned production. Future pumping station additions are also planned in phases to raise the pipeline capacity to 300,000bopd

Continued

Advancement of Chad/Cameroon arbitration

As previously disclosed, Savannah Chad Inc (SCI), has commenced arbitral proceedings against the Government of the Republic of Chad and its instrumentalities in response to the March 2023 nationalisation of SCI's rights in the Doba fields Chad, and other breaches of SCI's rights. Savannah’s other wholly owned subsidiary, Savannah Midstream Investment Limited (SMIL), has commenced arbitral proceedings in relation to the nationalisation of its investment in Tchad Oil Transportation Company, the Chadian company which owns and operates the section of the ChadCameroon pipeline located in Chad. SMIL has also commenced arbitral and other legal proceedings for breaches of SMIL's rights in relation to Cameroon Oil Transportation Company (COTCo), the Cameroon company which owns and operates the section of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline located in Cameroon. We expect the arbitral proceedings to be concluded in the second half of 2025. SCI and SMIL are claiming in excess of US$840m for the nationalisation of their rights and assets in Chad, and SMIL has a claim valued at approximately US$380m for breaches of its rights in relation to COTCo.

Continued

Beefing up Nigeria continued

Uquo

Commissioning of the US$45m Uquo Central Processing Facility compression project is now underway, with start-up expected late 1Q/early 2Q. Completion of the CPF will allow Savannah, through its Accugas midstream subsidiary, to increase gas production volumes in the years ahead. Savannah is also procuring the long lead equipment required for the potential two-well drilling campaign on the Uquo Field in 2H25. The potential two well campaign involves an additional gas development well at Uquo NE, which is expected to add up to 80MMscf/d of supplemental production and a potential exploration well at Uquo South, targeting an unrisked gross gas initially in place of 154Bcf (25.7mmboe). Significantly, in 2021, when Savannah last drilled a gas production well at Uquo (Uquo-11), the well came in better than prognosis, leading to a 27% increase in gross Uquo 2P reserves.

Continued

Beefing up Nigeria continued

Expect more upstream deals Further hydrocarbon asset deals are likely as Savannah looks to capitalise on the trend of IOCs and NOCs selling mature and non-core African oil and gas assets. In particular, it is pursuing cash-generative, or nearterm cash-generative, upstream and midstream assets; and/or ‘bolt-on’ assets that offer strong synergies with its existing operations.

Continued

Beefing up Nigeria

Stubb Creek

The Nigerian portfolio will be further strengthened by concluding the buy-out of Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration & Production Company Nigeria Limited (SIPEC) from the Stubb Creek oil and gas field, raising its exposure to a strategically important asset for the company with strong oil production enhancement and gas development potential at an attractive price. Savannah is acquiring the 49% economic interest it does not already own in Stubb Creek for US$61.5m, representing an acquisition price for the 46 mmboe of 2P+2C resources of just US$1.3/boe. However, due to the effective date of 1 September 2023, we would expect that the cash due on completion is significantly less. Post acquisition, this boosts Savannah’s resource base by almost 30% to 203.5mmboe (2P reserves +13% to 73.3mmboe, 2C resources +41% to 130.2mmboe). The 227bcf of 2C gas resources within this is especially important, with development anticipated early next decade as the Uquo field gas production comes off plateau. This can help satisfy Savannah’s growing Nigerian mid-stream gas requirements, with Accugas (80% Savannah) now supplying c20% of Nigeria’s thermal power generation capacity through long-term contracts with an average remaining life of 14 years. Gross FY24 oil production was 2,700bopd. However, management plans to complete a low-cost expansion programme within 18 months of the deal completion that is expected to increase Stubb Creek gross production to 4,700bopd. This acquisition has strong strategic and commercial rationale and has long been touted as a possibility, given the asset was non-core to Sinopec. The deal is attractively priced and gives Savannah total operational control over a producing asset it knows well, where oil production can be rapidly increased at modest cost. It brings a complementary gas development asset into the portfolio that can support Accugas’s long-term midstream growth ambitions.

Continued