Member Info for adoubleuk

grewber,

Your posts are interesting, and we appear to be in agreement on a number of points regarding WN. And also company communications recently being 'dreadful', if not non-existent!

Back to West Newton. Unbidden, a little scenario came to my head yesterday, regarding the complete lack of comms about restarting the EWT, and the new focus on drilling further wells on WNB instead. OK,it's got to be read with two points heavily underlined. Firstly the fact that Rathlin remains the Operator, and thus operationally calls the shots, and (b) there's an assumption that West Newton is hoped to be 'sold' to a major of some sort, thus realising a cash profit to all stakeholders. And that's just an assumption.

Rathlin, being private, doesn't have to issue RNS's about all that's happening. And to be quite honest, I refuse to believe that a 'revised' EWT on WNA2 is being held up for permitting reasons, nor anything like that, despite what their CEO might have told a 'community meeting' last month.

Instead, let's try something else. Remembering, though, that this is just something imaginary that occurred to me, and could be totally wrong.

What if Rathlin has already put their WNA2 data on their market-barrow and wheeled it through the doors of one or two more 'major' oil companies, and those potential 'customers' have expressed vague interest, but with no intention of parting with any money right now? Let's face it, why should they? A low-pressure field that will require 'artificial lift' from the start, and from which no oil has yet been extracted? And UK onshore, not the friendliest place to operate in? Really, one core sample and some wireline logs don't seem like a good basis on which to invest megabucks cash to develop the thing.

Instead, how about if those potential megabuck 'customers' have given Rathlin some advice, telling 'em to go drill a couple more holes, come back with the data gathered from them, and maybe (maybe) they'll take another look? With no promise they'll buy, of course.

So off go (private) Rathlin, a bit upset, but not looking at being in the poorhouse and having to put their daughters on the streets, because their AIM-listed buddies RBD and UJO can always manage to wheedle some moolah out of the Public to finance a couple more wells. And remember, such cash won't just go into hiring a rig and buying some drillbits. There's also OGA. Not the Oil and Gas Authority, but Office and General Accounting. Included in which is the Directors' salaries, of course.

OK, this is a dismal and negative way to look at things. But the more days that go by without any 'concrete' news, or news of a concrete pad being laid at West Newton to support a storage tank, the more I smell a rat.

And what's happening in Romania? And has California actually come 'properly' onstream yet? There are some shares I hold where no news can be comfortably assumed as being good news. But this I fear is not one of them.

daltry,

Thanks. Yup, I've got that link bookmarked already, and know what I'll be watching tonight!

Biffa,

"There are no interviews or press conferences scheduled. Simply put, RT is delivering a talk on the Lancaster field. It will be quite scientific and its primary aim is to inform on FB and the Lancaster EPS. He does these talks quite regularly. There will be NO content relating to the WW drill and no new news regarding HUR. Those expecting anything other than that described below will be disappointed. "

Yes. However, the presentation proper will be followed by an informal 'get together' with the speaker himself afterwards.

I'm now rather regretting not having got myself a ticket for the event, even though it'd have been an expensive little excursion.

SC,

"P.s. you forgot the installation of the downhole pressure gauge "

No I didn't. I'm a 'detail' person, remember? Here's a phrase from the Sept 12th RNS giving the results of Lincoln:

"The well will now be suspended, subject to regulatory approval, with long term gauges installed to test interference with future GWA wells. "

Ie: installation of gauges, and so on comes after DST results get published! ;-))

Let me put on my mortar-board and get boring, once again. Do a bit of education. People like EmptyVessel, TheDriver and The Street can leave, if they want.

Rig 'activities' are 'governed and reported' (best phrase I can find) by a thing called the IADC Daily Drilling Report, compiled and filled-in on a 24-hour basis by the rig's 'manager' (or Toolpusher) and Driller, signed by them, and presented to the Oil company's representative onsite (or onboard) for his approval, which if met, he or she then signs, before the thing's sent to town (electronically, in an armoured personnel carrier, by pack-mule, or whatever), along with (sometimes) subsidiary reports like those from the Mud Engineer, The Directional Driller, and the one from the Camp Boss saying how many meals were served that day, and that he's running short of chickens.

The IADC report is a LEGAL DOCUMENT, and recognised as such.

In the actual 'reporting' section, the day's activities are prefaced by a code, represented by a number. Like code 2 'drilling'. Or code 5 'circulate and condition mud'. Or code 15, 'test BoP'. There are 34 of these different 'activity codes' (I know 'em by heart due to a good part of my lifetime spent dealing with them), and DST (Drill Stem Testing) is 'code 16'.

But despite knowing these codes by heart, just occasionally one has (or I had to) just check for finer-detail definition. As I've just done, rather to my own amusement.

"COPYRIGHT 2019 IADC© — All Rights ReservedPage 3 of 4 V1.0 – 13 February 2019
16. DRILL STEM TEST
The drill stem test begins with picking up temporary packers used to isolate the zone of interest. The test ends when all tools are fully tripped out of the hole. "

Which is much as I thought. What is implied is that even though downhole tools can be unseated, unlatched, or whatever, and the 'trip out' (code 6) in progress, the DST as a whole cannot be considered finished until everything's back to surface and recovered.

And especially WoS offshore, weather might play a part in when this may be.

I may have lost my bet on an RNS today (though today isn't over yet), firstly because I didn't have any money running on it, and secondly because all the signs seem to be that Warwick West is good. I'm looking forward impatiently for the news, though, just to see how it's worded.

SnowCameron,

"I have no idea why so many people seem to think the talk on Lancaster tonight (that would have been scheduled weeks ago) has an influence on the timing of the drilling results."

If the world were inhabited by robots, that might be true. But fortunately that's not the case, and there are still a few actual sentient humans around . It's like the old joke.

Man walks into a bar. And sees three men and a dog sitting at a table, playing poker. So having bought his drink, he observes the game for a while, because a poker-playing dog is an unusual sort of sight. And the dog appears to be playing perfectly.

Finally he exclaims "Hey! That's incredible! That dog's one heck of a poker-player!"

One of the others turns to him and says "No he isn't. Every time he gets a really good hand, he wags his tail."

Unfortunately, sometimes Dr Trice can seem like that. Though of course I've always been told never to play poker with a person called 'Doc'.

SnowCameron,

"Or maybe they are waiting until the dst is completed?"

And that's a thought I had yesterday, though didn't want to post it then. Because it raises the question of how one defines 'completed'. Because if one were a stickler for detail (as I am), one can only say the show's over once the well's been killed, the temporary packer released, and the string safely on its way out of the hole. And that includes having first rigged-down all the heavy metal on surface before they can even start PooH.

Someone (SotB, I think) alluded to this yesterday, and may have been right. All very fine if the song's been written (ie the data gathered), but if the Fat Lady can't get on the stage because it's pitching and rolling, the song's not sung.

I certainly know what show I'm going to be watching this evening!

dkok,

"adoubleuk

It is getting tiresome as to how many times things actually need to be spelled out to some people!"

Sorry if I've made you tired. Maybe you should take a siesta.

" It has been made abundently clear that Rathlin had planned WN as a gas well and all required permits and equipment had been obtained for such eventuality. When it turned out to be substantially oil, that meant that both he equipment and the permits needed to be sought to deal with that eventuality. That is why the EWT stopped and needed to be re-desinged and permitted, and alternative equipment procured."

Yes, i'll agree with that, to the extent thet Rathlin (the Operater) has bitten off than it can properly chew.

"It was also clear that the size of the oil discovery was significant, without even touching the Cadeby formation. Further wells would then be required in order toprove up the full extent of the discovery and to also test the Cadeby, as that could also add very significant additional oil to the tally."

Oil as yet 'untested"'

"Todays UJO RNS also highlights that the further 3D seismic is to be carried out on the WN PEDL license as they believe there are significant other areas witin the license."

A f****n waste of money, imho.

"It is clear that neither RBD or UJO are going to produce WN, they are now in the process of proving up the full extent of the available reserves in order to get the best price from a purchaser, who is likely to be a major."

And this is where this whole thing is falling aprta. WN is a low-pressurer reservoir requiring artificial lift from the outset..There is not a 'major purchaser' This will take time, and requires all the permits and equipment in place to do so, not to mention the funding from all the WN partners to do so. Why thre heck do you think the 'majors' didn't get into these licences to start with, if they were such 'winners'?

There's no escaping from the fact that the SP has consistently reduced while no news has been announced, and operationally things seem to have come to a standstill.

PDMSP,

" If we didn’t have West Newton and we were raising based on combined assets of Parta, Corallian, Cali, Biscathorpe and Wressle, would we have got anywhere near £29Million? That’s what the actual situation is."

I don't see that that's the 'actual situation' at all. If UJO and RBD didn't have West Newton, why would they want to raise 29 million, anyway?

There has been a radical change in the forward planning for WN over the last couple of months, and shareholders haven't had it properly explained to them. To me, the 'actual situation' is that the companies are raising money, telling us partially what it's going to be used for, but giving none of the rationale behind WHY it's going to be used that way, rather than in the way things seemed to be planned for just a few months ago.

OK, so that's both RBD and UJO who have made placings at below premium, saying that a good part of the proceeds will go towards progressing WN through drilling two further wells.

But again, no mention whatsoever about re-starting EWT. Somebody from one of the companies involved ought to start coming clean about what the real situation is.

Dellfrog,

"it may give you some idea of the wide range of tests that can be involved and this is for each formation that may need to be looked at"

This particular DST is testing just one formation and 'zone': the FB horizontal. You'r correct that there's no hard-and fast 'rules' for how long such testing may take, but one can look at Hurricane's previous DST operations to get a rough idea. Plus the weather will have an influence, as well.

SotB,

"Why not?"

Why not what? Uncertainty over whether testing is finished? One or two people here have stated from 'sources' (more reliable than chat in The Grill!) that it'll be wrapped up either today or tomorrow. But such rumours could be wrong. I'll wait 'til the fat lady sings, in the form of an RNS.

DK,

Last week if figured possible RNS either yesterday or today, but that's proved wrong. I'll now go for the day after tomorow, based on thinking similarly to Clive 205.

But we still can't be sure that DST testing has been completed, yet.

Clive205,

"Not unreasonable to expect news before close on Thursday given that the CEO is giving a presentation that evening"

Very good point. I think Dr T would have a very hard time giving that presentation without an update on Warwick.

Wellwell,

"Is there a pub called 'The Grill' round the corner from Burlington House, London, W1J 0BG?"

You're wasting your breath Our geographically-challenged chum (who thinks Hurricane's operations are in the North Sea) probably doesn't know where London is.

JoeSoap,

Excellent post. Imho.

Lots of questions which still require resolution, maybe explaining the market 'hanging back'.

Nothing which causes me (personally) any worries, though.

MCB55,

"That is to say that if the first two are good then that truly opens the door to reasonable speculation that GWA is one giant field, albeit not fully proven until more wells are drilled, in that two data points cannot tell the full story."

I agree with you (not for the first time), and I think we're essentially reading off the same page.

Although the company may mention at the upcoming CMD may (or may not) that they have further evidence that 'Linwick' (the GWA) is one big field, I think they'd really be sticking their head out above the berm to claim such a thing in the (very soon) RNS regarding the WW DST.

Though of course 'rumour' is always a good SP-driver ! ;-)

Genghis,

"But I recall some previous interview where the impression Dr T gave was that it might be better is they wwere not connected (Lanfax/Linwick) than if they were. I have no idea why."

It's related to the geology, depths, and the 'tilted' nature of the 'buried hills' (or rather the Rona Ridge in general), separated into 'compartments' by massive East-West faults, Westray to the N. of Halifax, and Brynhild just to the S. of Lancaster. All a bit too complicated to explain here.

But equally it's a reason I take the 'Spark Energy' stories with a bucketload of salt, to answer one of your earlier questions.

MTV,

Do you double-up as a standup comedian at the Edinburgh Fringe, by any chance? Because you're certainly providing a lot of laughs.

" most of my updates are from the Grill in Aberdeen after a few drams between fellow colleagues within the industry"

Yeah, right. Nobody in their right mind discusses 'business' in The Grill, unless the 'industry' involved concerns the afternoon's racing form.

" but did actually make some caboodle on the dips last week, enough to upgrade my flights to Mauritias"

Nobody who drinks in The Grill holidays in Mauritius, especially those who can't even spell the name of the place correctly. Unless you've 'upgraded' from trying to walk there to buying a bicycle.

Keep 'em coming, please.

Electric Vehicle,

"Can see lots of Christmas pies being replaced by humble..."

What the f*** is a 'Christmas pie' ?

Christmas Pudding I know of. And there's one waiting in my larder to be (partially) consumed on the day.

LudicrousLogic,

I note this is your first post here, and it contains a lot of questions, but reading between the lines, I get the impression that you know something about oilfield reservoir engineering. Also, like yourself, I'm still somewhat bemused that the company went for Warwick Deep as a horizontal from the get-go, rather than following the Lancaster 7 / 7z model.

But one question at a time.

"Can I ask what would constitute proof, or enough certainty at this stage to strongly suggest to the market that Lincoln and Warwick are a single field?"

...And personally, I have no answer to that. Maybe someone else here with better knowledge than myself has, in which case it'd be good to hear from them. However, that unanswered (so far) question is the reason I think we should keep a tight rein on our horses, and not necessarily expect anything about 'connectivity' in the post-DST RNS. Because claiming outright that Warwick and Lincoln are one and the same field would (or will be) a 'bold step', and they'll need some fairly bombproof evidence to back up such a claim, because there will be bound to be doubters and critics wading in. should they make such a statement.