Member Info for adoubleuk

Proverloop, JoeSoap,

This time it seems like three of us were writing at the same time!

I would, however, like to posit an answer to JoeSoap's question, which admittedly was aimed at Cebo. To whit:

" Please share just one explanation so that your fellow investors might enjoy a sound sleep in a dry bed for at least one night."

OK, let's assume your house hasn't been flooded. so here's one heartening thought. The stockmarkets in general (and the oil sector as one particular) have been hit hard by this coronavirus panic, but HUR has ridden it out so far better than many. So don't wet your bed.

Cebo,

" anyone thinking about this weather causing riser damage or causing the AM to lose couple of chains are really letting there imagination run wild. "

I tend to agree with you. The mooring system / catenary riser system will have been risk-assessed to the hilt during the design phase, if full knowledge of WoS weather-conditions, including the '100-year wave'. Even if the chains were made in China! (Though I don't think they were')

Plus also, as someone else pointed out, that greenwater protection wasn't added in Dubai for nothing. The ship's dynamic sea-handling characteristics in bad weather during her five years over Ettrick were no doubt carefully studied, so she was beefed-up to be sure of things when on Lancaster.

Nevertheless, it must be remembered that this is the FPSO's first winter out there, and EVERYTHING's being put to the test. If the weather was a bit 'bumpy' a few miles to the west in deep water, it was probably quite 'lumpy' over the shallow Rona Ridge area. And it can just take one slightly out-of spec ( and maybe not properly waterproofed) sensor relay being bounced around to slow down production.

I retain an open mind about 'causes' for the light load. But am skeptical that it has anything to do with the reservoir itself.

Cocopops,

" The fact that we are still producing and offloading is a great relief and shows that the AM is a tough old bird."

This (below) still remains one of my favorites showing what it can be like out there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPy2DHHnlqQ

DC,

"FT headline:
Saudi Arabia seeks bigger oil cut as coronavirus slashes demand.
and in the article:
"The kingdom is asking producers including Russia to sign up to a collective production cut of an additional 1m barrels a day, according to five people familiar with the talks"

Thereby in just a few phrases negating any discussions about 'finite resources', and so on...

Cocopops,

Thanks for your 'weather' post.

I've already hypothesised that the 'light load' may have been due to a technical glitch. Others have put in further ideas. But of course, with the exceptional number of serious storms over the last few weeks, it's in no way inconceivable that production may have had to be shut down for a while due to weather and extreme vessel-movement. 'Production-train' equipment has its limitations: things like skimmer-tanks don't work if rolling around too much, and nor do separators.

It could quite easily all due to something that simple. And a bad weather shutdown wouldn't be worth an RNS. The FPSO's WoS, after all, not in the Red Sea.

"Blackrock has taken out a 0.59% short on the 27th Feb making the total 1 28%."

Are Blackrock Hurricane bondholders, by any chance? I feel that with current global market positions, bondholders hedging their bets should be expected.

Fred_Bloggs,

". I'd put my money on a pump fault and if so, then quite possible a shaft seal failure. "

That sounds remarkably detailed for a 'guess'. Or is it in fact really a 'guess' ?

Bugerov,

"Interesting theory... adoubleuk = Tom Clancy"

A hypothesis (not a theory) on your part, and miles wide of the mark.

Amaja,

"Yesterday I spoke with the man in charge of the discharge operations of Nord West Oelleitunggesellschaft in Wilhelmshaven. He was reluctant to reveal the cargo size of the PA. However, at my supposition (?) that the PA was fully loaded, his answer was litterally: NOT FULLY LOADED, NOT AT ALL. That ties in with the draught of 10.3. So perhaps 60% of a full load? Reasons? One can only guess. "

Thanks (as ever) for your efforts. As you'll see from other posts here, it's evident that the tanker was 'light loaded', but the reason for that is just guesswork.

malrees,

"Any comments on why BP would have taken that offload rather than wait for the normal parcel size of around 450k? The only thing making sense to me is that there was a problem during the offload and it was halted for technical reasons, as the sea was calm. Any other explanation suggests that BP spent rather more on that load than they need have done!"

Yes, I have commented at length today about exactly the same thing (see my posts), and can only come to the same conclusion as yourself. Some sort of technical glitch.

However, you mentioned the fact that BP is involved, and that hadn't occurred to me in my thinking. Offloads can't just be 'organised' by Hurricane, but in conjunction with BP. And I have a suspicion (though no evidence for such) that BP probably does the main organisation of such logistics.

Thanks for the backup to the thinking in my 11:42 post! We might both be wrong, of course, but it's nice to know one's got company...

Londoner7,

"Showing my workings!
API 38deg converts to 0.8348 SG
Volume constant 6.29 (M3 to bbls)
(51,247 x 6.29)/0.8348 = 386,132 bbls"

Thanks for that!

However, being a bit bored, waiting to sign-in to my habitual latenight online poker game, I thought I'd check your figures, out of curiosity. And I get the SG of 38degree API crude to be 0.8820

No sweat, doesn't matter. Same ballpark.

laser,

Mario got in before me, but his figure is correct !

However, I count 13 crude storage tanks. (Source not Bluewater but the HUR EIS document.)

slipanchor,

" I was under the impression that Hitler had given orders for it to be killed."

What? Kill the giant squid? That would be a terrible and unecological thing to do.

(Don't tell anyone else, but I have it on good information that the giant squid is in fact our FRIEND, and assists in rig anchor-handling operations and things like that.)

Of course the reduction in tonnage might be explained by the tanker crew pumping all the water they'd collected over the side during the voyage. To save the refinery the bother of 'hiding' it...

Birling,

" if that Port Report is correct because its updated and the quantity has reduced from 51247mt to 45000mt!"

Many thanks for the update, and yes, I've checked and indeed the figure has been updated. and as it's a figure taken in port rather than at sea, I see no reason to disbelieve it. This reduces the load to something between 311,500 bbl and 340,000, depending on how you calculate it. Still very much the same 'ballpark', but a slightly smaller one.

"Curiouser and curiouser" (to quote Alice). How odd.

Definitely a 'partial offload' if the FPSO's tanks were bursting at the seams, and a very small cargo for the tanker. Which of course (see my 11:42 post), WHY? Neither of them make sense to me, economically, unless there was some sort of technical hiccup during the offload where it made more sense to cut the boat loose and do the delivery while planning to take more time to fix the problem, if there was one.

Or otherwise the possible alternative, that this is the magician 'preparing his stage' before pulling the rabbit out of the hat at the CMD. I don't discount that possibility.

Slipanchor,

"The Petroatlantic is now alongside Heppenser Jetty at Wilhelmshaven ."

Thanks for the info.

Unfortunately despite my love of long-distance driving, I think that's a bit to far for me to want to jump in my car to go and see.

However, if there any 'spies' in the vicinity, it'd be good to know if there might not be an enormous severed-tentacle-like thing visible draped over the bow area, or gouge-marks on the hull which may have been caused by an enormous Cephalopodic 'beak'.

CaptSwag,

"my only worry is that the giant squid which i have been informed by reliable sources to have the coronavirus does not infect the crew - however I am also informed that everytime it surfaces they are spraying it with perched water "

Post of the day!

Except you forgot to mention that the squid bit through the loading-hose and drank a bellyful of oil, which is why the tanker's only carrying a 'light load'.

D_K 2020,

" if I was a betting person or paddy-powers I would say good odds that Hur will be acquired. Funny how the market has dived, explored, crashed and Hur is still in the same price range "

OK, so far as the UK markets are concerned, the miserable week is over, so we can sit back and recoup for a couple of days while the virus spreads into sub-saharan Africa, everyone gets it, the thing becomes a global pandemic, and most people's immune systems get used to it.

Funny. I'm now wondering if maybe I haven't already had Coronavirus 'flu myself. Because I was terribly unwell over the holiday season, spending most of my time in bed, almost unable to breath at times, and I'd been at a 'private' poker-game about ten days previously where one of the players was Chinese, and his parents were with him to visit.

But hey! It's the weekend! Why not let's start a rumour?

I really liked the thing about Coronavirus being to cover up the 'dangers' of 5G ! Typical social media nonsense. But I've got an even deeper idea.

Already the smartphone addicts have floated the notion that this new virus thing was in fact deliberately 'manufactured' by the Chinese. Nothing's impossible. Did they have that built-in-a-week 1000 - bed hospital already lined up, ready to go, just as soon as they unleashed the disease?

What's been the result? Stockmarkets going into meltdown, oil price crashing, and so on. China, Russia, and the Middle East ready to trade oil directly for gold, and these days, they're the people who've got most of both.

It's even to the point where both Shell and BP are taking a bad hit on their shareprice.

But today, HUR has strangely held up in comparison. Though the SP has been in tailspin for the last couple of months for no obvious reason.

Maybe the major shareholder (essentially Chinese) got the heads-up and spread the word.

IS CNOC planning to take over all the world's oil companies? Paid in gold?

Absorb, and discuss.

Yrs from the bunker,

adoubleuk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfLyK2DVVUU

Albi, Apache,

"Re. AS well said Apachewind, he deserves a great deal of credit in my view for being part of the team that got Hurricane to production stage against all odds."

Agree entirely. AS may have had his detractors, and it appears he flew the thing a bit close to the wind when it came to the 'warrents issue', but without his presence on the BoD I don't think Hurricane would be where it is now. In material terms, that is. Whether he can have been used as a scapegoat for the current SP, I have some doubts. Though it may be because of that that he's decided to resign, in order to avoid such finger-pointing.

It also shouldn't be forgotten that Stobie is very much a 'jobbing' financial director / consultant. And hence his not buying a wodge of shares committing himself to the position he held.

That clip has got 'SonoftheBull' written all over it.