Member Info for adoubleuk

londoner7,

"Do you have any maths to help Dr T understand the behaviour of perched water?"

Yes, that's a good idea. It could be considered helpful and proactive.

Maybe someone should email Lower Easham suggesting that at the end of the day, Dr T logs into this BB to find some stuff to help him understand how his reservoir's working. You know, a bit like evening classes.

Mind you, we shouldn't overload the poor man. He's got his daily homework to do on Lemonfool as well, you know.

MCB55,

" The wells productivity and flaring constraints will be clearer at the CMD I feel sure!"

Let's hope so!

I'm only just back home, picked up on this correspondence, so very quickly opened my copy of the EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) document to see if there are any figures there that may help. It was only a very quick glance, mind: I have to go to bed sometime!

But my overall impression is that there are just too many variables in play to be able to deduce whether the FPSO can flare with up to 30,000 bopd passing through, or whether 20,000 is currently some sort of limit for that reason.

For starters, I don't think we've seen a figure for gas / oil ratio at these flowrates, and without knowing that we can only be guessing. Also of course, flaring will be significantly reduced once the vessel is running fully on produced gas going through the gas turbine generators. Again, I don't recall having seen any company info as to whether those systems are yet fully commissioned or not.

I also found a snippet I hadn't really taken notice of before, in section 10.6.3 'Future possible export of gas'. Quote:

'Based on conversations with BP [my insert; nevertheless this was some years ago], it was understood that there would not be sufficient capacity in the WOSP system for Lancaster gas, due to high predicted production rates from the redeveloped Schiehallion and Loyal fields. Similarly, while an export line from the Rosebank development could present an option, the project is currently on hold. To keep up to date with any changes and to move forward with potential options in the future [ie now!], Hurricane will maintain communication with the respective field operators throughout the EPS phase [which is of course ongoing]. '

Which makes things all sound rather 'fluid', and maybe the WOSP tie-in shouldn't be considered a foregone conclusion.

As you say, MCB, hopefully some light will be shed on the situation at the CMD.

Apachewind,

" it would seem that we now have two sets of long lead items on order. One lot for Lincoln Crestal for future tie back and one lot for the Lancaster 8 well - so if so far I have got that right then.."

I'm not sure if two 'sets' of long lead items are on order. The RNS only mentions (if I've read it correctly) equipment for a GWA tie-in and for tie-in to WOSPS.

However, Hurricane's 'producer' wells are of similar design, using identical equipment. So yes, it's pretty sure that the stuff earmarked for LC could be used for Lancaster 8 if that turns out to be a good 'un. And if the stuff's been built and is in storage, it would seem eminently sensible for Hurricane to use it, paying Spirit back for their 50% of the build cost.

AquaeSulis,

", I filtered trigger weeks ago and if it wasn't for posters making reference to trigger's posts I would be totally free of reading baseless fiction, suggest you and all other posters just filter as well and starve it of the oxygen it thrives on"

I read your post and finally decided to follow your advice. After more than ten years reading (sometimes contributing to) LSE BB's, it's the first time I've ever filtered someone. But TsD's sick daily one-liners are something I can easily do without. They're like a t*rd floating in a swimming-poll.

SG2,

"or the nuts, adouble."

Yeah, let's not forget 'the nuts'.

Not to be confused with the nutters who have even got Mr Bernstein twisting (or should that be wetting?) his knickers about 'water-cut' rumours.

'The nuts' are where it really counts. But rare to find.

haggis_trap,

"I am reassured to see Crystal Amber buying more. Suggests there is no valid reason for current share price.
However something stinks - seems the share price has been held low while they fill their boots. Now slowly seems to be creeping upwards."

I agree with you that something stinks. Something rotten in the State of Denmark. But CA's TR1 only indicates a long-time 'rebuild' of their holding before they felt obliged to declare it.

Bernstein is a self-declared 'activist'. So now it remains to be seen in what way his 'activism' shows its ugly head as regards HUR. Is his lovely fund which gives out their own shares to charity going to start selling into the forthcoming rise, or what? Or if not, when? I reckon CRS might wait until the SP's back at a 'reasonable' level around 40p+ before they start shouting from their barrow-stall again.

Nice to see a blue day for once.

Longwait,

Please forgive me for seeming rude, maybe.

But this is the HUR BB, not JOG. Nor SXX. Nor ECO.

Sure the 'retail market' of PI's prepared to risk their money on AIM stocks such as these may have a slight read-across, just because the basket's full of apples, oranges, pomegranates and bananas, let's not get the different fruits mixed up.

mcadder,

" I personally think this week will see that last opportunity to buy sub 16p hence why I bought in yesterday"

I certainly hope you're right. I topped-up today, taking my holding back to the level it was at last time I top-sliced... at 54p!

SG2,

" If only there were a way to get hold of that boat, Hur would be flying. "

Oh dear. Back into fantasy-land. Where was that boat supposed to go before the order was cancelled? West of Shetland? I doubt it. It;s why a few years ago I was sceptical about a multiple-fpso FFD, and despite MCB55's reasonable post arguing otherwise, remain so, Sure, maybe an 'incremental' FFD using boats might just about be feasible, but could it actually become profitable? Hmm. BP is basing Claire Ridge on fixed platforms, and for a very good reason, too. It's shallow water (relatively) so out there that's where the weather is worst in terms of sea-state. But you can drill a couple of dozens or so directional wells from a fixed platform, whereas an FPSO requires wells to be drilled from a semi (weather-dependent) and then tied-in. The trouble with a fixed-platform strategy is that initial capex is a lot higher, and so will be eventual decommissioning costs, looking forward to when coronavirus will have wiped us all out anyway.

There's one thing that mustn't be forgotten. The Aoka Mizu is a big boat, for sure, not something for Sunday afternoon in the Solant. Producing a fair bit of oil, maybe with mods capable of more. But it's still just an 'Early Production System'. Not the 'Hurricane Hub'. There's no reason why an eventual production-line should resemble a cheapa** breadboard testbed model.

MCB55,

"I think we've been here before, Hur could (IMO without a detailed cash flow forecast) develop Lancaster on a phased basis (say 2-3 phases), that is multiple FPSO's rather than a big bang FFD. "

You're absolutely right 'we've been here before', especially on this BB!

And here, I'm casting my mind back about four years ago, when there was a lot of technical 'opinion' going back-and-fro on this BB about the 'way forward' . There were some posters back then (where have they gone?) who say much the same as you, with multiple (incremental) FPSO development, whereas I thought more (and still dream about) a line of fixed-jacket platforms marching like soldiers all the way up the Rona Ridge from Lancaster to Halifax. Look at old 70' s pictures of the Frigg field to get an idea.

But it ain't a crime to change your mind, and as 'twixt then and now nobody's come in to buy Hurricane for a fiver a share and make us all millionaires, maybe that won't happen. Nevertheless, and that being said, there's a huge financial difference between drilling a new Lancaster well and a couple of 'delineations' on GWA (the latter two maybe being co-financed by Spirit ??) backed up by EPS income, and financing a second GLA 'EPS-style' FPSO including the extra wells to be drilled to feed it.

This is why I await the CMD with some impatience, because ther's obviously been some sort of 'strategy-change' which we don't know about, and which might also have a bearing on the CFO departing.

Via RNS we've already been appraised of the new tactics, more or less. But not the strategy.

feelinlucky,

That isn't 'news'. The same applies to all-electric. But with hybrids (which aren't a bad idea) there's a trade-off in reduced fuel costs.

People who buy ANY car 'thinking it's green' (other than one painted green, preferably an Aston Martin) are soft in the head and ought to get on their bikes instead. Unless they've made it themselves, maybe out of wood. Because most things like the Cat D900's which work the metal-mines don't run on solar power.

Longwait,

"A quarter of a million pounds seems a lot to pay for front brake-pads, Double."

Absolutely. That's why I 'cancelled the order' !

No, but more seriously, don't you appreciate a bit of irony? Because the people who mind the 'bots' which screw up our shares probably do worry about the cost of some brakepads.

"Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if that's more than you paid for the vehicle itself!"

By an order of magnitude. Though for a day a few years ago, it was probably one of the most valuable rangerovers on the planet, when following my divorce I moved certain 'assets' from where I lived to the town where I moved to. A sensible person would have hired Brinksmat.

But of course I'm not a sensible person, which is why I'm not selling any of my Hurricane shares right now.

"If the casino in Marrakesh cancels the 'Golden Million' tournament weekend in 12 days' time "

Sorry, I meant WEEK !

'Cos that's where I intend to go. Back (hopefully heavier in wallet) just in time for the March 19th financials and then the CMD RNS's.

And assuming all is well, airlines haven't stopped flying completely, and so on, I hope not to have to think deeply about my HUR shares at all.

" Looks like someone bought 1.7m+ shares, this caused the bots to have a hissyfit with 25 good size buys then the 1.7m+ buy was cancelled."

Sorry, it was my fault. Placed the order, but remembered I have to get the front brake-pads in my 16-year-old rangerover replaced. Phoned Norauto (the French equivalent of Kwikfit) for a quote, so decided to cancel buying those share 'cos I'm a bit short of cash right now.

I wrote "CMD will indeed be very interesting.".

But forgot something. By three weeks' time will all gatherings of a hundred people or more have been banned?

If the casino in Marrakesh cancels the 'Golden Million' tournament weekend in 12 days' time because some people in China like eating animals already at the point of extinction, I will be very p**sed-off indeed. And hope that the airline insurance cancellation company will refund my bookings.

Cap't Swag,

"The thing is if the cmd they clear all issues that have been raised. Confirm drilling plans. And have news on ffd or extension of am and increase in reserves."

One of the day's more interesting posts.

By 'extension of am' do you mean carrying on the EPS as it stands, and prognosed, for six years, maybe ten?

But also, you mention 'ffd' (Full Field Development').

This is something I've been thinking about of late. The thing being, FFD is something that Hurricane just cannot do 'standalone' by itself. It must involve partners with deep pockets. But what they CAN do is continue the EPS chugging along and paying for itself almost indefinitely, including further Lancaster drilling, and proably the WOSP tie-in to increase production.

I suggest we forget FFD for the moment, 'cos that's just the 'bait' for a big fish. (And I'm not using the word 'fish' in a poker-player's derogatory way !) 'Cos the oil's not going to disappear, and the big boys are falling over themselves to try to get more reserves online. Temporary drop in demand due to virus scares notwithstanding.

CMD will indeed be very interesting.

"PLEASE, Double, try not to mention crematoria. TSD could be listening."

Or Johnny Depp...

Longwait,

"I would point out, however, that today tournesol wrote:

'I sold everything last week and am now 100% in cash'

which means the fact that he is out of HUR merely reflects his view of the market, and in no way contradicts anything he wrote about HUR being undervalued."

That's interesting, I missed that. And 'Tournasol' is obviously doing the opposite of 2008, when I saw the writing on that particular wall, and converted quite a lot of 'cash' into physical gold. And right now, I'm converting some physical gold back into cash (at about 150% profit). Unfortunately this takes a bit of time, the banks drag their feet as much as possible until one kicks up a real fuss.

Where will some of that cash go? Straight into a nice big top-up on here. Because the 2008 stockmarket crash was due to major failings in the financial systems which support it, whereas the coronavirus panic is quite different. And absolutely the first thing which will rebound when the brouhaha settles down will be the stockmarket.

Most crematoria are fuelled by hydrocarbons, and quite commonly diesel.

"Don't be surprised if DSPP now says that the fact that he has been proven not to know what he was talking about means he has been proven right."

A few days ago someone here suggested that TriggersaysDave was an acronym. And suggested a meaning, but it was rather rude, so the moderators tokk down the thread.

Whoever, could DSPP not stand for 'Double-Sided-Penny-Predictions'?

Longwait,

"This seems like a good opportunity to mention a poster on ADVFN called tournesol, who said four days ago that he made 1900 percent profit from his investment in Dana Petroleum and thinks HUR shouldn't accept an offer of less than 280p per share. He also discusses water, cash flow, LC etc."

I did read that.

However, let's not forget a couple of things. 'Tournesol' is the French word for Sunflower. In the Tintin books, there is Professor Tounesol, who in the English translations is known as Professor Calculus.

"the content is interesting"

Yes, it is, especially as in a later post (just two days ago) he says he's currently 'out' of HUR and 'waiting'.

"Very interesting" (to quote Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In), considering how much he must have made in the past.