Member Info for adoubleuk

Wellwell,

"Halifax is perhaps a dud? It's not on any plan anywhere. Why is that?"

Oh dear. I'd overlooked that post of yours. But Wessex and JK have commented on it, and I briefly mentioned my take on Halifax not now entering into the 'immediate' planning earlier.

I'm afraid your post enters into the 'pitiful' category. No, just plain idiotic.

You're a Completions Engineer, aren't you? I suggest you stick to your speciality. A sort of mechanical tubulars designer with a few bells and whistles attached. Stuff which we polymaths have to pull out of the ground during a workover when a bit of it springs a leak.

Bet you've never been involved in interpretation of a wireline log in your life (other than maybe CCL).

Halifax is 2C on the books. Re-entry and DST wouldn't make it 2P. It won't be commercially produced for years, until either FFD (not Hurricane's problem) or an intermediate EPS, which I doubt will be Hurricane's baby anyway. Dr T will probably be drilling Far West of Ireland, by then. Or possibly southern Bay of Biscay, deepwater...

dspp,

Great post. Everyone should read it, because it's a factual explanation of the Operator / Licencee relationship.

kANDYMAN,

"Its all about flow rates"

No, it isn't. This is what 99% of non-oilfield people get wrong. Sure, obtaining DST flowrate information is really great data, but even then, in terms of overall reservoir interpretation, it's only part of what DST-testing is about.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not wishing to appear to be smartarse. Just a few months ago I was posting here in a debate over out of the two rig options, which of the three most obvious 'targets' would be gone for? Lincoln, Warwick, or Halifax re-entry. And I wasn't sure. But the latest news shows us that the company strategy is firmy on the 'monetisation' side of things rather than 'punching holes in the ground'.

But that reminds me of another point I forgot to put in my earlier post. Wrt Whirlwind. For ages now I've been thinking of Whirlwind as being potentially used by the company as a 'bargaining chip'. I now feel even more strongly that this may be the case. Could be completely wrong, though.

joesoap,

Interesting post, though I'd like to stick to one bit.

"What may yet delight us is that they keep the PBLJ options open!"

I think it was IJWT who mentioned the PBLJ earlier.

We'll have to wait until the TO fleet status report to know more. But I have a gut-feeling. That being, the PBLJ may now be right out of the picture, the options dropped, and the rig will go to Invergordon or elsewhere for some long-needed TLC after the Zennor work. Seven years nonstop with BP, whatever she did for Repsol on Shaw (still not divulged) instead of wintering in the yard, our couple of 'light' wells, followed by another winter for Zennor? She might be headed for the scrapheap even, now that TO's bought some new rigs.

Things are still unclear, because the farmin news has created some media excitement, but confusion (for me at least) regarding the rigs, especially the 'Leader'. Because some people are saying she's for March, whereas she's supposed to be with Enquest until the end of May, at least.

I think it'll take a while for the dust to have settled so we can do some proper research via various sources as to the rig situation.

Wulbert,

"I'm wondering, does it possibly help HUR to make a move to the main market?"

You put out some questions which seem a bit naive, but none of the 'financial experts' here seem to like replying, for some reason.

Please understand that I don't consider myself a 'financial expert', but here's my take on it.

A company who moves 'upmarket' is subject to more stringent financial regulation and corporate governance rules. Compared with AIM-listed, something you alluded to in an earlier post. (And in parenthesis, yes, there are a lot of 'sharks' on AIM. But it's only through serious DIY research that you can pick out the sharks from the dolphins, which might turn out to be baby whales. And you won't always get the identifying right.)

'Moving up-market' gives a company kudos in the financial investment world. An image of 'seriousness'. And by dint of that, the larger institutional investment institutions will start looking closer at the company, with possibly a view of investing themselves in a slice of the shares. As a corollary, such recognised institutions generally don't share-deal short-term, so as a result the SP tends to become less volatile and based on day-trading, concentrating instead on medium-to-longer term profits, at a higher percentage.

Of course, such institutions are weighted to being interested in companies which pay dividends, but (to date) there is no sign of Hurricane doing that, even longterm. And personally I don't see Hurricane EVER paying dividends, so it's a thought best forgotten, in my opinion, to avoid disappointment.

That's my view of the thing, and as I say, I'm no city-slicker 'financial expert'. So stand open to disagreement by others, should they wish to disagree with what's a very basic viewpoint on the subject.

Biffa,

"I'm sure you'll do OK out of it, so don't worry so much. Let the BOD do the fretting."

Dunno about post of the day (there have been a lot), but definitely 'phrase of the day'. Wholeheartedly agree.

I've been reading the stuff so far, but here and there and on my phone, hence not posting. But it's been interesting, often entertaining if not downright hilarious, but interspersed with pitiful bits. Such as the poster writing (I paraphrase) 'If I were RT, this is what I'd have done instead'.

Well the fact remains that he ISN't Dr T, and all we shareholders can breath a sigh of relief for that.

Also entertaining is comparing what's been agreed with Spirit (a 'done deal') withRB's typically spoilt-adolescent 2016 comment at the AGM. Some people don't seem to hoist in that HUR will still get their 50% of future production (or howevermuch, the percentage may well be renegotiated DOWN later) from GWA on the back of a free-carry. And how much will that be worth over numerous years compared with an outright £500 sale of the whole lot?

Other fatuous comments seem to be related to the fact that so far we don't see where money from EPS production will be going, medium term. This seems to me to be the thinking of people who don't know how nice it is, when money is coming in, just to put some in the bank. (Though with that sort of money I'd make sure to buy a lunchbox -full of 1kg gold bars, take delivery, and hide 'em somewhere bombproof.) But I'm sure that won't entirely happen.

There's a 'gap' regarding GLA expansion and drilling. In the 'current plan'. But nothing says the plan might not change a bit as time goes on. I strongly suspect another GLA producer may be drilled sooner than 2021.

Halifax? No rush. Already booked as 2C, despite lack of DST. And it's 35km from the FPSO. And 'proving' the Lanfax 'connection via drilling along that distance will involve multiple wells, and hundreds of millions of dollars.So it can wait, now, with this new deal going ahead. Plus anyway, Halifax is just 'suspended'. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a small intervention there to install some pressure-gauges and the like into the hole once EPS is running. But given the distances, even that might not be worthwhile.

Oh, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a TR-1 soon, either. But it depends how fast RB trades. Might already have sold some at 58 and bought 'em back at 56. Nice work if you can get it. Unfortunately I can't personally do such stuff, and the small percentages don't interest me anyway.

rexmontego,

"until proper and fair industry price is paid for resources"

Please give us your estimate of 'proper and fair industry price' per barrel for 2C / P50 (contingent and prospective resources) at current oil market price of $70 / bbl. I think you will find that it's in the order of 35 cents / bbl, ie the same order of magnitude as Spirit has paid. Sure, they may have farmed-in at something like a 30% discount, but the intangible value to Hurricane of the farmin and the overall operational accelleration it represents probably (in my opinion) far exceeds the discount.

Your argument is somewhat like those of people who in the 1960's who criticised Concorde, saying that people wouldn't pay a very high ticket price compared with subsonic transport, simply to be able to fly to New York in four hours rather than eight.

Wellwell,

"Looking back on Malcys interview and his subsequent comments that someone may make a move before FOIL I suspect in hindsight less than 99.9% of us should of been surprised."

True, but only up to a point. But who would have suspected Spirit? And as we've read, the whole deal started due to a chance meeting in ABZ. THAT's the real curve-ball.

Cebo,

" I should be granted an exclusion zone (maybe not the 500, but I would settle for 5p). Not sure who is resposible for this conspiracy to restrict my chances although I have my suspicions - RB at 10-1, Sipp and his ruthless mob at 12-1, my own paranoia 15-1."

As someone who might be considered part of 'SiPP's ruthless mob' I think that's an unfair idea. And anyway, you'll note I've given you plenty of leeway! (Though given that you work on a barge, you need it.)

I think all of your 'suspects' are wrong, though, Maybe you should drop Malcy an email...

Wessex,

"In pure odds terms yes, but think of it like a group of guys shooting at a target. Some of the shots will land away from the bull, the grouping will tend to centre on the bull. Given "sensible" estimations, the guesses will deviate around the actual likely value; This type of group consensus can often be uncannily accurate."

Yes, of course. Without wishing to seem rude, I'm very aware of that phenomenon.

But it remains based upon current information. Plus I was writing from a very selfish and personal point of view. Whereas given the nature of the sweepstake, it's not as though everyone's going to send me, personally, a fiver if I 'win'. In fact I'd be very happy if the bullseye actually does turn out to be in the middle of the 'grouping', especially now that Hecate has sent a figure of £6,66, which alters the curve just a little bit towards the upwards range!

Really, there are lots of variables. This sweepstake is far more 'random guesswork' than the one (still open, I think) regarding the date of FoiL, where at least a bit of personal experience and knowledge can be used. (Even if on that one my own guess is towards one of the extremes of the bell-curve.)

There have been posts on different threads this evening regarding possible 'black swan events', which could change things significantly. But let's face it, yesterday's news was a sort of 'black swan'. Or rather, no, more like a 'golden swan' event! (Golden swans probably being as rare if not rarer than the black sort.) It took maybe 99.99% of the sort of people who post here by surprise, and changes the game considerably. In a very positive way, imho.

Still to many variables for me to have the slightest iota of confidence in my (possibly lowball) SP sweepstake guess. But if it's anywhere in the range already suggested by participating contributors here, that's OK by me!

MrJimV,

"The way the SP is going we could hit some of the sweep stakes of there FOIL , yesterdays news is sinking in how good a deal it really is , lot of trades today ."

Yes. Although I'm not a great adherant to TA, the volume is important. Someone here has said that it doesn't all seem like retail-driven, and I think I'd agree with that. Plus as we've seen here today, the news is only slowly trickling out. And the big bucks don't make snap decisions. Maybe further investigations of potentially investing in HUR are only just being mooted as an addition to the agenda for discussion in some offices' morning meetings tomorrow, or by the end of the week after more DD has been done.

And in regard to the subject of DD, there's an important line in the RNS that people here seem to have overlooked, or at least not mentioned. There are no 'conditions outstanding' in the farmout agreement. In other words, it's a done deal. WISIWYG. And that means that the sums mentioned are those upon which II's or rich PI's can base their calculations.

Wellwell,

"Maybe we’re not that different afterall AK!!?? May I nominate myself for post of the day? "

I'm sure you may. But as you haven't referenced exactly which to one of your posts sent today you're referring, I cant entirely endorse your suggestion.

However if it's the one I've just quoted, I've given it a 'thumbs-up', if that's any consolation.

shed,

"Sorry Rev for posting on the foil meant to tell AD his forecast figures are too low on this post."

Nothing would please me more than to discover that my guess is too low!

But that's all it is. Pure guess. Sheer gambling, and that's not something I do often. In fact scrub that. Very very rarely indeed.

This particular sweepstake is quite interesting already, though, in various ways. If I've done my sums right there are close on 36 people already 'signed in'. Same as the amount of numbers on a roulette wheel, if you discount other possible bets like black or red, even-uneven, and so on. Plus this is a roulette-game where one player can only play one number, and not share it with anyone else. So the odds of 'winning' are pretty terrible already. Not the sort of game I'd normally get involved with at all.

But I've looked at the 'provisional list' the good Rev published already at 14:35. And the lowest 'bet' is 64p, ie higher than the SP is right now. That's already good news! And the highest estimate is £2,50. That would be very nice indeed! But it gives us a spread of about 40%: a small pin on the tail with the donkey covering half the wall of a warehouse. So the odds of pinning the tail in exactly the right place have become very slim indeed.

Plus this is a game where my own actions (other than a trip planned to Rotterdam when the boat gets there) don't influence the outcome whatsoever, or at least infinitesimally.

Just too many variables involved...

But fun.

Reverandy, I see Wellwell is in for 83p. Probably earlier than I, but I hadn't noticed. So can I have the 84p slot, please? I find it curious and slightly amusing that WW and I, despute our frequent disagreements, plumped for the same figure!

Reverandy,

Could you put me down for 83p at the opening bell the day of FoiL RNS publication, please? Charity Mendip Cave Rescue Organisation. Thanks.

shedful,

"All 3 GWA wells will be producers, with the first well tied back to the AM on GLA is that correct "

That's what the RNS and the presentation are telling us. Or rather, one of the wells being tied back. Neither publication is specific regarding the drilling schedule, although it may be inferred.

DaveWin,

An excellent well-informed post on the FPSO technicalities.

On initially reading the RNS yesterday morning, and on subsequent re-reads, I found (and still do) that word 'debottlenecking' sticking out like a sore thumb. Because it's a bit of non-technical jargon: a buzz-word. The only firm bit of technical information we have so far in this respect is tie-in to a gas export pipeline. Which would obviously give an 'instant' increase in how much oil could be produced, as environmental flaring restrictions would no longer be providing a 'bottleneck'.

You're quite right to underline that any capacity increase won't be a simple question of bolting on a gizmo here and a bit of gubbins there. This is why I'm of the opinion that the boat may leave station either in 2020 or 2021 and go to dock for modification work. For this same reason, I simply do not believe that any last-minute additions are being installed right now in Dubai. According the the EPS timeline in company presentations, there's still three and a half weeks to go before the end of the sailaway 'window'. So up to now there's no sort of 'delay'.

Genghis,

"RB is not on the Bod, and is trying to take credit for something he had absolutely no part in. RT is on record somewhere (I will search out a link later) saying that Kerogen were known to HUR pre IPO."

Taking this further, even if it's a tiresome red herring, there is only one person of whom it may be rightly surmised that without his interest HUR might not exist. (Or rather no, there are two, the first being Dr T himself, of course!) And that person is James Huddlestone. And I wouldn't be at all surprised (though I have absolutely no evidence for this) if it was he who introduced the company to RB and CA, pre-IPO.

That's all ancient history now, though.

dspp,

I've read your interesting and thoughtful post(s), which encompass a number of points. Some of which I personally agree with, others less so. But here's one thing.

". With 1km length horizontal sections I don't think they aim to do much in the way of active management of the horizontal sections through well-life. "

Yes, I believe that to be 100% true. The horizontals are 'bareback', with a permanent production packer installed somewhere near or within the heel section (I don't know exact depth MAWB). Given the nature of the rock, this isn't surprising, as it's not going to move! It's not a friable sandstone or limestone. So essentially any future workovers will be restricted to the completions themselves most likely: ESP replacement, or whatever. Hopefully years away. Nevertheless with the 'Y bypass' around the ESP's the horizontal sections can be accessed by coil for possible downhole production logging or suchlike. Which could of course be done with an intervention vessel, not requiring a full-blown rig.

I agree with you that for now the planned wells (in their disparate locations) will be drilled from floaters. But much further on up the road can quite envisage fixed-jacket platforms entering the picture, incorporating multiple drilling slots. Like on Clair Ridge. But that of course is many years hence.

Hope this link works for non-subscribers to the Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hurricane-powered-up-by-partnership-with-centrica-5p6qdnd7j

I also see that a similar article featured in the New York Times yesterday.